Chinese semiconductor thread II

[GiantPanda]

It is being proved completely false as we speak. China's percentage of global chips production has gotten to the point of "overcapacity."

This the flip side of the argument on "supply chain resilience":

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The long-term capability of China’s chip industry remains unknown, but the likelihood of it developing advanced chip-making capabilities is almost certain. Demand for chips is

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, and China now leads the world in terms of the number of

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. The question many experts are asking is whether China’s tech industry can produce advanced chips at scale. Perhaps the more important question is what happens if China succeeds. The emergence of a completely independent Chinese chip ecosystem would have massive geopolitical repercussions.

And it is a far more likely scenario because of this:

The Chinese market is already the world’s

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, purchasing more than 50 percent of the chips manufactured globally.

 

[antiterror13]

I will make a bet that China will far surpass US in advanced Chip manufacturing by 2032. In fact I will make a bet that China will catch up to Taiwan in advanced Chip production by then in both volume and technology. China is moving at 3 times the speed compared to everyone else right now. They will make progress in 10 years what others will take 30 years.

I agree with your bet

 

[Phead128]

10 years later in 2032
Taiwan is expected to account for 47%, the US 28%, Korea 9%, Europe 6%, Japan 5%, China 2%, and the remaining 3%.

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View attachment 129402

The 2% estimated China fab capacity for <10nm by 2032 is based on publiclly available CapEx fab announcements in 2022.

This is a major flaw since SMIC has zero announced capacity expansion plans in 2022 for <10nm nodes, 7nm wasn't even publiclly available until late 2023 (much less acknowledged by SMIC as produced by themselves) - so you can't take what didn't even exist in 2022 to extrapolate out in 2032F.

SMIC has announced significant CapEx expansion plans for <10nm in late 2023 and 2024 after the huge success of Mate 60, that is not reflected in these projection numbers. So this graph is not reflective of the latest data and is very misleading.

This explains how the "Other" group (incl. India+Singapore+Malaysia) somehow magically beats China in <10nm logic market share, which should be your basic sanity check BS detector.

 

[european_guy]

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Techinsights confirm that the NAND of the Pura 70 is Chinese while DRAM is from Samsung.

TechInsights

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of the Pura 70 Ultra found the use of Samsung LPDDR5X DRAM, matching a part first observed in Samsung’s Galaxy S23+ smartphones, released in February 2023

This is well after the 2020 ban. It can't be stockpiled stuff like for the Hynix's.

They bought DRAM from Samsung after the ban.

Samsung has a big

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that manufactures memory chips and accounts for 40% of its total NAND output, and is under active capacity expansion.

This fab, together with the one of Hynix, got permission from US to import international equipment and have spare parts and services for

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Of course "indefinite time" with US does not have the same meaning you look up in the dictionary.

I'm very curious to see how this thing will evolve...anyhow bold move by Samsung, considering that Xi'an fab is under active capacity expansion and so is very prone to sanctions.

 

[interestedseal]

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Another piezo actuator startup for lithography tool. Also one of the earliest confirmation of the existence of 14nm-capable duv litho development (this was from early 2021)

 

[olalavn]

I have no doubts about China's semiconductor independence, and it appears that semiconductor equipment will also be produced domestically, but time is a problem.View attachment 129401
Localizing semiconductor equipment will be an uphill battle. This may be the reason why memory semiconductor production decreased in 2023 compared to 2022. The United States plans to impose sanctions on memory semiconductor companies such as CXMT at the end of 2022 to restrict semiconductor equipment.

View attachment 129402

You forgot 70%-80% of chips are still using processes above 14nm...

 

[ansy1968]

Huawei is at it again with a mysterious CPU and AI chip.

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[tphuang]

Deleted some bad take articles by @gotodistance and responses to them. Really taking this thread off to unuseful places. gotodistance gets a one week vacation from this thread

 

[tphuang]

This is well after the 2020 ban. It can't be stockpiled stuff like for the Hynix's.

They bought DRAM from Samsung after the ban.

Samsung has a big

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that manufactures memory chips and accounts for 40% of its total NAND output, and is under active capacity expansion.

This fab, together with the one of Hynix, got permission from US to import international equipment and have spare parts and services for

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Of course "indefinite time" with US does not have the same meaning you look up in the dictionary.

I'm very curious to see how this thing will evolve...anyhow bold move by Samsung, considering that Xi'an fab is under active capacity expansion and so is very prone to sanctions.

I agreed that these are sourced recently from productions of DRAMs in China. At a time when DRAM sales are low, Samsung & SK haven't been too careful about who is buying them. So securing them from 3rd parties probably isn't that hard.

I doubt this is actually that bold by Samsung. US congress is never going to get alarmed like the way it got after M60 again. P70 coverage is minimal compared to M60.

I presume Huawei will keep sourcing these DRAMs through 3rd party while also working on its own DRAM production + sourcing from CXMT. If CXMT is nervous about being put in spotlight, you can always uses its DRAMs on non flag ship phones like Nova and Enjoy series

 

[gelgoog]

Huawei is at it again with a mysterious CPU and AI chip.

The article claims it uses a Huawei processor with Kunpeng CPU cores, AI cores, and an FPGA.
Sounds like the kind of thing you would design to make cellular base stations.
It is probably used as a dev kit for people who want to develop software for the Kunpeng without buying an expensive server.

I looked at a different article and that Tomshardware article is wrong. The SoC only has 4x Kungpeng CPU cores and the AI accelerator unit. The FPGA, if you want one, you have to attach it via an external M.2 card.

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