If you were to tell me that SMIC would be overtaking GF as second largest pure play foundry even 1 year ago, I wouldn't have believed you - I genuinely would have thought US sanctions would have stumbled them, not supercharge their expansion.
I have been saying this would happen ever since I heard of SMIC's 28nm expansion. I fully expected them to surpass UMC and GF. SMIC are building like 340,000 wafer per month capacity in that 28nm node. Once the expansion is complete they will have built about as much capacity as TSMC has in that node with its Fabs 12, 14, 15.
SMIC will then have to continue making investments in R&D with older nodes to improve its revenue with those fabs. If it was me I would either make a 20nm planar process, or a 22nm FinFET, something like that. Intel had tri-gate transistors i.e. FinFET at 22nm. Those transistors should cut power consumption quite a bit. The industry has also been adding MRAM at that node as a denser alternative to NAND.
keep in mind that Shanghai gov't is likely to retain their share of SMSC JV and re-invest earnings into more capex. They would be stupid not to. So, SMIC revenue passing TSMC is out of question, but maybe they can get past Samsung.
The Chinese government actually increased its share of SMSC and the factory is being doubled in capacity.
The government went from a minority share holder to having the majority of shares.
their Western market revenue shrunk a little bit, but not significantly. They should not rely on that going forward anyhow. There is plenty of demand from China customers for 28 to 65nm node
There should be a lot of demand for imaging devices and consumer electronics (routers, printers, drones, things like that). But I would expect even SoCs for consumer electronics to start moving to FinFET eventually. I would not be surprised if in addition to higher resolution they started moving to those even higher bandwidth consuming 3D displays. Eventually 28nm might not be enough for TVs.
It already is not enough for high end smartphones, and you already see high end automotive chips using FinFET. It just has higher transistor density which is being used for autonomous driving.
talking about overall global reputation and tech leadership in this field .. obviously they cannot displace TSMC in total revenue due to ownership structure..
More like they cannot displace TSMC because they are prevented from buying high end equipment. Still even if they had such equipment it is unlikely they would surpass a company which has much higher capital in terms of factories and installed client base.