Chinese semiconductor industry

nlalyst said:

According to industry forecasts that I've read, even in 2025 more than half of IC production in China will come from foreign companies. The Made in China 2025 goal set the ambitious target of manufacturing 70% the value of the IC market in China.

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I would be happy to see China reach 50% by 2025; the 70% target was going nowhere with lazy Chinese companies happy to rely on foreign trading partners. Now the trust is gone and they are truly working. 50% or 70% is a detail; the trend of Chinese production making strides to reach and breach the best in the world is the most important part. And China is known to beat estimates so a 4 year one, I wouldn't pay heed until it's 12-18 months out.

nlalyst said:

They seem to be on track to reach 20% by 2025.

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Nothing from your first 2 sentences would support this. Industry experts estimate 50%; the target is 70%... so it looks like 20%. Nonsense.

nlalyst said:

China first needs to grow its domestic IC industry, otherwise its lithography toolmakers will not be able to scale up to the level to challenge the current leader.

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It's growing it now.

nlalyst said:

Just in this year alone, the top three players: Samsung, Intel and TSMC will invest over $80bn dollars into growing their business. It was way back in 2014 that China set up its National Integrated Circuit Plan with the goal of investing $150 billion in the semiconductor industry. All the money was spent by 2020, but with very little to show.

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Actually, it was more than what meets the eye. China is able to suddenly make leaps and bounds now because it didn't start from nothing. That money went into good research that kept China within striking distance from market-competitive lithographs but they did not come because a free market favored ASML. Now the market is no longer free so China can bring them out and sprint from a close deficit rather than from out of sight as the US had hoped.

nlalyst said:

If you look at the general geopolitical situation, there is a general drive from countries and region around the world to prop up their domestic semiconductor industry. ASML stands to reap huge rewards from this redundant and inefficient allocation of investment.

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That's just saying that the world didn't team up to beat ASML. That's pointless; ASML doesn't even manufacture all of its own components.

nlalyst said:

I thought you would suggest that China's lithography systems may compete against ASML because they will be cheaper. If you look at ASML's competition: Nikon offers DUV immersion systems that on paper appear to offer pretty much the same performance as ASML's systems and they are a lot cheaper. Despite that, ASML's share of the DUV immersion market in the last three years ranged from 95% to 85%. Obviously, the customers know best where the true value lies, regarldess of what the marketing brochures may claim.

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Nikon could not compete because the US took the food out of its mouth to build up ASML as it feared Asian domination and also because Japan's domestic market is too small. Neither of these issues exist with China.

nlalyst said:

ASML is so far ahead of everybody else that it's not even funny.

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That's only true in the sense that nobody's laughing at a serious topic. But it is very vulnerable to a Chinese catch-up and overtake. Once China is determined and moving, which it is, ASML simply does not have the resources or manpower to stave it off.

nlalyst said:

Instead of betting against ASML, you should've bet in favor of them. Anyone who did in the last 5 years made a very nice profit on their stocks.

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I don't need more money and I never bet against China because China always delivers. Furthermore, one cannot win a bet against one's own blood; it is a loss regardless of the outcome.

nlalyst said:

Complex features on 7nm require more than just double patterning with DUV immersion.

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Don't think this is true. China is slated to do 7nm before EUV is ready.

nlalyst said:

As far as I know, DUV cannot do 28nm. The physical limit is 32 nm. 28nm must refer to to the process name.

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SMIC currently uses DUV to do 14nm.

nlalyst said:

It's well understood in the industry that single exposure EUV products have superior electrical features to DUV multiple exposure products. Anyone stuck on DUV, will have a hard time to competing in performance.

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In a vaccum, it may be correct but there are other solutions that Chinese companies demonstrate, not used in traditional foundries that can improve chip performance. Reducing the nm scale isn't the only way to improve chip performance and this debacle has really forced China to advance in every way in the field. While the lithographs are being readied, other solutions are implemented and when the lithographs are ready, they come in again to further improve performance. Once China is determined at something, it will be done. Banning tech to China is the stupidest thing that the US keeps doing.

Here is an article on global semiconductors from 2018 that says "The only company in China that is engaged in R&D and manufacturing of lithography machines. At present, the manufacturing lithography machine can only achieve 90nm..."


Keep in mind this is from 3 years ago. Does that mean that after everything, SMEE has not come out with a better machine in over 3 years?

gadgetcool5 said:

Keep in mind this is from 3 years ago. Does that mean that after everything, SMEE has not come out with a better machine in over 3 years?

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Note that industries don't like to change suppliers if they don't need to, that's why limited sales for SMEE. Well with the tech war roaring hopefully fabs change their mind.

gadgetcool5 said:

Here is an article on global semiconductors from 2018 that says "The only company in China that is engaged in R&D and manufacturing of lithography machines. At present, the manufacturing lithography machine can only achieve 90nm..."

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Keep in mind this is from 3 years ago. Does that mean that after everything, SMEE has not come out with a better machine in over 3 years?

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Did you really cite a paper that looks like it was put through Google translate from a second hand source (HK has only fabless companies and only 1 of note)?

ansy1968 said:

@horse Bro I been thinking, if the US wanted both TSMC and Samsung their Customer info (in other words the American are in the dark), then you're correct about SMIC secretly supplying Huawei! my gosh bro you're an oracle!!!

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1. Thanks for the kind words.

2. I feel like I really do not know anything. I was a good student though. I just applied what I learned a lot time ago. Along the way, you pick up more tricks.

3. This is something I read a long time ago, and that has served me well in how I view the world. A Chinese philosophy professor once wrote that there were two levels of culture in China. That is absolutely true, although I never noticed until I read those words. There is the educated and the uneducated, and both had different habits. The uneducated were loud and vulgar and all sorts of others things. The educated had various things they were interested in. But this general idea, seems applicable elsewhere. Seems to me the language of the educated is very different than from the language of the masses.


4. Those who know, speak another language in other words. They do not exactly speak another language, they just say what they think and expect you to keep up. Read a few articles in the Wall Street Journal and we know what that means. Some would read that and have no idea. Others would read that and plan to take on the world.

What is being said here by American CIA to the Taiwanese and Koreans through TSMC and Samsung is coercive. The CIA does not know something and they want to find out, or else.

5. What they want to find out, that could be like what you are suggesting is that it is another tool for suppression against Chinese companies, or an attempt to borrow proprietary technology from Taiwan and Korea so that America can borrow and use. They are not stealing it, since they are Americans they are only borrowing it.

6. The suppression part, I don't think it really works when it comes to China, too many historical examples.

WTAN said:

Its already a done deal. RF Chip will be supplied soon. Mobile Phone will be released in 1st Qtr of 2022.
This is considered a "State Secret" so thats all i will tell you.
More information will be released by the Media in due time.

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manqiangrexue said:

I appreciate your updates as everyone else here but please be careful what you post, especially the "state secrets." Our fun is not worth it.

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This is still about business and sales.

If this rumour generates free advertising, then they will probably want that free advertising.

Seems to me we can assume that a production run of chips takes three months. It is already the 4th quarter of 2021, and the rumour is by the 1st quarter of 2022 the 5G RF chips will be available inside Huawei phones. Just around Chinese New Year.

This is a very juicy rumour!

manqiangrexue said:

I would be happy to see China reach 50% by 2025; the 70% target was going nowhere with lazy Chinese companies happy to rely on foreign trading partners. Now the trust is gone and they are truly working. 50% or 70% is a detail; the trend of Chinese production making strides to reach and breach the best in the world is the most important part. And China is known to beat estimates so a 4 year one, I wouldn't pay heed until it's 12-18 months out.

Nothing from your first 2 sentences would support this. Industry experts estimate 50%; the target is 70%... so it looks like 20%. Nonsense.

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China's IC market exceeds by far the IC production in China: $143 billion vs $22.7 billion, as I pointed out earlier. These are two different benchmarks. The 2025 goal was immensely ambitious and aimed to capture 70% of the bigger and not the smaller pie.

manqiangrexue said:

Nikon could not compete because the US took the food out of its mouth to build up ASML as it feared Asian domination and also because Japan's domestic market is too small. Neither of these issues exist with China.

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I am not familiar with this interpretation. Care to expound on the matter?

manqiangrexue said:

I don't need more money and I never bet against China because China always delivers. Furthermore, one cannot win a bet against one's own blood; it is a loss regardless of the outcome.

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From what I could gather, you are an American of Chinese descent?

manqiangrexue said:

SMIC currently uses DUV to do 14nm.

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Yeah, just like pretty much everyone else. However, their rampup is rather slow. They don't provide exact numbers for revenue on 14nm, but their combined <= 28nm revenue stood at 14.5% total revenue in 2Q21, which is an increase compared to 9.1% in 2Q20, but far less than I was expecting. Seems there is not that much demand for their 14nm products or they just cannot deliver?

manqiangrexue said:

SMIC currently uses DUV to do 14nm.
Banning tech to China is the stupidest thing that the US keeps doing.

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The US applies selective tech embargoes. Nukes Huawei, by leaves other Chinese companies to pick up the slack. Incidentally, these companies are allowed to buy US made or designed products.

It has been selectively embargoing SMIC for almost 2 decades. 18 years ago, SMIC was just as (if not more) competitive as it is today. Their strategy has been to stymie potential tech champions while keeping much of China's companies dependent on US and its allies technology.

nlalyst said:

China's IC market exceeds by far the IC production in China: $143 billion vs $22.7 billion, as I pointed out earlier. These are two different benchmarks. The 2025 goal was immensely ambitious and aimed to capture 70% of the bigger and not the smaller pie.

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Yeah, of course. There is no point here. This is just rambling.

nlalyst said:

I am not familiar with this interpretation. Care to expound on the matter?

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Oh, you didn't read the thread before commenting? What a surprise. The US feared Japan's technological rise so it crippled its economy and took away a critical tech sector. This was discussed by many members here before; I don't care to regurgitate the conversation for you.

nlalyst said:

From what I could gather, you are an American of Chinese descent?

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Mind your own business.

nlalyst said:

Yeah, just like pretty much everyone else. However, their rampup is rather slow. They don't provide exact numbers for revenue on 14nm, but their combined <= 28nm revenue stood at 14.5% total revenue in 2Q21, which is an increase compared to 9.1% in 2Q20, but far less than I was expecting. Seems there is not that much demand for their 14nm products or they just cannot deliver?

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First of all, you said that DUV cannot go below 28nm. You're wrong; that's over. Then, you have mistaken the widely-known phenomenon that most applications use 28nm+ for clients not accepting or SMIC not delivering 14nm. It seems you have accused me of lacking substance when you have failed to grasp some well-known facts.

nlalyst said:

The US applies selective tech embargoes. Nukes Huawei, by leaves other Chinese companies to pick up the slack. Incidentally, these companies are allowed to buy US made or designed products.

It has been selectively embargoing SMIC for almost 2 decades. 18 years ago, SMIC was just as (if not more) competitive as it is today. Their strategy has been to stymie potential tech champions while keeping much of China's companies dependent on US and its allies technology.

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Their strategy fails. The US should have kept Huawei hungry for foreign parts turning it into a Chinese Apple which just makes phones for profit. Instead, it caused Huawei to become a Chinese Samsung+ which aims to dominate all technological sectors upstream and downstream of simply phones. It even kidnapped the Hauwei Princess to give Chinese people more hatred and resolve! The US thought it could isolate Huawei but all Chinese companies now see the danger and there is national effort to create the world's first complete competitive IC manufacturing line in a single country. Chinese companies dont trust foreign tech anymore and any use is treated as a stopgap. SMIC was not competitive because it was a late-comer to a game that ASML dominates and there was not force to push clients towards SMIC; that problem is now solved by America's blunder. American tech embargoes are rooted in fear and hallmarked by failure.

manqiangrexue said:

Yeah, of course. There is no point here. This is just rambling.

Oh, you didn't read the thread before commenting? What a surprise. The US feared Japan's technological rise so it crippled its economy and took away a critical tech sector. This was discussed by many members here before; I don't care to regurgitate the conversation for you.

Mind your own business.

First of all, you said that DUV cannot go below 28nm. You're wrong; that's over. Then, you have mistaken the widely-known phenomenon that most applications use 28nm+ for clients not accepting or SMIC not delivering 14nm. It seems you have accused me of lacking substance when you have failed to grasp some well-known facts.

Their strategy fails. The US should have kept Huawei hungry for foreign parts turning it into a Chinese Apple which just makes phones for profit. Instead, it caused Huawei to become a Chinese Samsung+ which aims to dominate all technological sectors upstream and downstream of simply phones. It even kidnapped the Hauwei Princess to give Chinese people more hatred and resolve! The US thought it could isolate Huawei but all Chinese companies now see the danger and there is national effort to create the world's first complete competitive IC manufacturing line in a single country. Chinese companies dont trust foreign tech anymore and any use is treated as a stopgap. SMIC was not competitive because it was a late-comer to a game that ASML dominates and there was not force to push clients towards SMIC; that problem is now solved by America's blunder. American tech embargoes are rooted in fear and hallmarked by failure.

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Rumor is TSMC's exec's are now terrified by the possibility that the US will try to drum up some charges against them and have them arrested and extradited to US from Taiwan, with the intent of forcing them to sell TSMC to a US company like Intel.

They all know that Taiwan dictator Tsai won't do jack shit to protect them from US.

Now they are already talking among themselves about possible escape plans or just a simple "surrender plan", where at 1st sign of trouble, they will offer up TSMC for sale without too much of a fight and without any one getting arrested. (so to maximize their own personal asset protections).