TSMC is basically a monopoly. When we are talking about TSMC declining revenues it is about post 2025.
If anyone was talking about 2021 TSMC declining revenues then that is wrong 100%
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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If anyone was talking about 2021 TSMC declining revenues then that is wrong 100%
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Yeah; ASML's best DUV is where China's upcoming model will be at, although China will be pushing DUV further while ASML had left off and went to EUV.
Duh. Couple years back, China had nothing to speak of. Now, China's EUV has all components complete and is ready to assemble/assembled for the prototype. It 2024-2025 was the last estimate I heard. Of course this is cutting down ASML's lead.
They are walking ahead while China is flying ahead. The anti-Chinese argument is always that others aren't standing still; they always choose to be trapped in the logical fallacy that if A is moving forward and ahead of B, then B can never catch up because by the time B gets to where A was, A will have moved forward further. They pretend they've never seen an object come from behind and overtake another object before.
They are now only stopgaps for until China's own DUVs come online and until those numbers are brought up to reach demand, which will take time. It simply means that China's mass-production of this new equipment has not reached saturation, not that the technology isn't there.
Like... point to it where it stands on the ground? LOL If you follow this thread, you'll know the upcoming dates within the next 12-24 months of this machine, yet to be named, and the milestones it is set to achieve. Sure, you can say that it's not here yet but that is a weak and diminishing argument. Chinese look to the near and long-term future. The anti-Chinese crowd cling to the past and the flitting present before it betrays them as always.
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Just wait a short while.
Not : China now produces 37% of its semiconductor needs, over a billion chips a day. And July 2021 was up 41.3% over the same month last year. This incredible growth rate is obviously not sustainable, but it is clear that very soon China will manufacture most of the chips it needs. Just wait a short while.
No. China simply doesn't trust ASML any more. So Chinese companies will be dumping their ASML gear as soon as they can, to use something they can actually trust. I don't care whether you consider the distrust a "market force"; the end result is that ASML will lose its Chinese market. And because of its betrayal of SMIC, ASML will have formidable Chinese competitors in the global lithography market, competitors who will only grow in strength -- as ASML grows weaker -- while China's semiconductor market continues to expand.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Good article realistic and not so bleak as the MSM and some china bear wished to. And written with good research and graph. CAE is probably the easiest to breach China has legion of software coder and they only need the FAB cooperation which they didn't get it in the past since they were locked into Cadence synopsis and Ansis But now they have no choice but cooperation. It take couple of years but eventually they get done. so that left the EUV which I am sure SMEE is working 24X7 to test and debugged the system.
Nothing new in the article. I will mention that the article is deficient in sources for China's semiconductor equipment manufacturers. For example:
- CETC's progress in lithography equipment development is never mentioned once in the article and only SMEE is discussed. (not the author's fault, sources are scarce)
- CETC Equipment's recent work in high energy ion implantation machine is also not mentioned.
- Nata Optoelectronic's work in developing photoresists.
- Language barrier. Note that none of the sources in the above article quote a Chinese language source.
- Little public information and updates from some semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Many Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers do not have a English language website and those that do rarely disclose any product information until it is already being sold. Furthermore, sometimes the English language website is out-of-date and doesn't even match the information on the Chinese website. (again, not the author's fault)
Side story:
The IEA (International Energy Agency) in 2010 published a Solar Photovoltaic Technology Report with projections for global solar energy (the projections turned out to be too low for the entire world in hindsight). Here were the predictions about the China market:
In the end of 2020 China recorded PV capacity of 253 GW.
Its already a done deal. RF Chip will be supplied soon. Mobile Phone will be released in 1st Qtr of 2022.
This is considered a "State Secret" so thats all i will tell you.
More information will be released by the Media in due time.
Good finding. For a while I would like to check prediction/forecast from 10 or 20 years ago and evaluate them with today's situation.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I appreciate your updates as everyone else here but please be careful what you post, especially the "state secrets." Our fun is not worth it.
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