Chinese semiconductor industry

manqiangrexue said:

Yeah; ASML's best DUV is where China's upcoming model will be at, although China will be pushing DUV further while ASML had left off and went to EUV.

Duh. Couple years back, China had nothing to speak of. Now, China's EUV has all components complete and is ready to assemble/assembled for the prototype. It 2024-2025 was the last estimate I heard. Of course this is cutting down ASML's lead.

They are walking ahead while China is flying ahead. The anti-Chinese argument is always that others aren't standing still; they always choose to be trapped in the logical fallacy that if A is moving forward and ahead of B, then B can never catch up because by the time B gets to where A was, A will have moved forward further. They pretend they've never seen an object come from behind and overtake another object before.

They are now only stopgaps for until China's own DUVs come online and until those numbers are brought up to reach demand, which will take time. It simply means that China's mass-production of this new equipment has not reached saturation, not that the technology isn't there.

Like... point to it where it stands on the ground? LOL If you follow this thread, you'll know the upcoming dates within the next 12-24 months of this machine, yet to be named, and the milestones it is set to achieve. Sure, you can say that it's not here yet but that is a weak and diminishing argument. Chinese look to the near and long-term future. The anti-Chinese crowd cling to the past and the flitting present before it betrays them as always.

It's better to end your response completely before you end up like you do in the other threads where you end up humiliated because you can't distinguish a real video from CGI.

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Best that Chinese companies can supply at the moment are 90nm class systems. Yes, 90nm. The process that was all the rage back in 2002. If SMEE's 28nm class machine comes out this year, and assuming it is productive enough to be used by customers in their fabs, that would put them 10 years behind ASML's DUV line.

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Nutrient said:

And July 2021 was up 41.3% over the same month last year.

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Oops, the edit time expired on my previous comment. The 41.3% figure is also from Tom's Hardware, but from a later article. .

nlalyst said:

Best that Chinese companies can supply at the moment are 90nm class systems. Yes, 90nm. The process that was all the rage back in 2002. If SMEE's 28nm class machine comes out this year, and assuming it is productive enough to be used by customers in their fabs, that would put them 10 years behind ASML's DUV line.

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90nm... then this year, 28nm, then next year 14nm and 7nm. That is the speed of China's progress. How long did it take for ASML to travel that path? It is this speed that has thrown America into a cannibalistic panic hoping to devour its pawns Korea and the ROC to stave off China. As I said before, Chinese look to the near and long term future, while anti-Chinese cling desperately to the past and flitting present.

nlalyst said:

I've looked up some of your other posts in this thread and its obvious you are out of your depth in this field and almost everything you write is pure rhetoric and 0% substance.

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Oh, you looked up some of my posts, did you? Cus I've nothing to hide and keep my profile open. If you weren't so ashamed of your past posts, you'd do the same.

I am indeed out of my field but I read what knowledgeable members write and do some research. At least I can gleam information from those who are in the loop and beyond Reuters, NYT, etc... I'm not an insider, and neither are you. What would you like me to do for substance? Quote WTAN or rewrite what he wrote to you? LOL I assumed you could at least read the thread before jumping in but it seems too much to as as you are stuck at the level of regurgitating Western media insisting that only this moment matters; not only is that 0% substance, it's denial of logic.

nlalyst said:

Even now you are forced to engage in straw-man logic games because you cannot provide an atom worth of substance.

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The near future is only without substance and a straw-man to those who fear the future and their diminishing stake in it.

nlalyst said:

But you have some talent.

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Unlike you.

nlalyst said:

I think stand up comedy could be a good career path for you.

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Yes, I am good at witty entertainment when in my circle of friends. I could certainly destroy hecklers like I'm doing to you now. But that's just my hobby; professionally, I am a PhD in a STEM field. I have many talents.

nlalyst said:

Good luck!

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Keep it; maybe it will save you some humilation in your future debates.

Nutrient said:

Just wait a short while.



Not

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: China now produces 37% of its semiconductor needs, over a billion chips a day. And July 2021 was up 41.3% over the same month last year. This incredible growth rate is obviously not sustainable, but it is clear that very soon China will manufacture most of the chips it needs. Just wait a short while.

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In 2020, the IC market in China was valued at $143 billion. Of that, $22.7 billion was from ICs manufactured within China, of which only $8.3 billion was manufactured by Chinese indigenous companies. The global IC market was valued at $395.7 billion. Therefore, Chinese companies accounted for just 2% of the global market. Yes, ASML is doomed if SMIC and the like stop buying their systems.

nlalyst said:

In 2020, the IC market in China was valued at $143 billion. Of that, $22.7 billion was from ICs manufactured within China, of which only $8.3 billion was manufacted by Chinese indigenous companies. The global IC market was valued at $395.7 billion. Therefore, Chinese companies accounted for just 2% of the global market. Yes, ASML is doomed if SMIC and the like stop buying their systems.

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Now that is a strawman! China's IC manufacturing is just taking off. 2020 is a snapshot of the before picture, the beginning of China's sharp growth trends yet you with to present it as a completed picture. And that's discounting the bit you deleted where you basically tried to imagine China's results away LOL.

The post you quoted never said that ASML is doomed and will die out; if anything, they will be protected by tariffs and bans to continue to live on as the lithography company of the West, but the rise of Chinese lithography will weaken ASML's position in the world as these Chinese machinese will doubtlessly provide a more cost-efficient alternative for the free world to choose and for China to embrace. AMSL will go from having a global monopoly to holding onto a bastion of clients by anti-China bans and regulations. Weaker? Yes, just like Nutrient said. Doomed, no, that's your strawman.

nlalyst said:

Best that Chinese companies can supply at the moment are 90nm class systems. Yes, 90nm. The process that was all the rage back in 2002. If SMEE's 28nm class machine comes out this year, and assuming it is productive enough to be used by customers in their fabs, that would put them 10 years behind ASML's DUV line.

I've looked up some of your other posts in this thread and it's obvious you are out of your depth in this field and almost everything you write is pure rhetoric and 0% substance. Even now you are forced to engage in straw-man logic games because you cannot provide an atom worth of substance. But you have some talent. I think stand up comedy could be a good career path for you.

Good luck!

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28nm in single exposure is at the same level as ASML DUVL whose resolution is 38nm, using other techniques such as multi-patterning and Optical proximity correction, chips of 7nm or less could be manufactured.

nlalyst said:

Best that Chinese companies can supply at the moment are 90nm class systems. Yes, 90nm. The process that was all the rage back in 2002. If SMEE's 28nm class machine comes out this year, and assuming it is productive enough to be used by customers in their fabs, that would put them 10 years behind ASML's DUV line.

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You realize that 90 nm resolution doesn't mean 90 nm process node, because process node doesn't actually correlate with any specific feature size since 90 nm, right?

You also realize that 90 nm is close to the resolution limit for dry etch before immersion is required? And that 90 nm dry etch is competitive with Japanese lithography systems so at minimum it still has a market regardless of ASML?

Do you realize you can double resolution with a 90 nm dry etch system if you have a sufficiently high performance wafer stage and double pattern?

And you realize that 28 nm with double patterning can yield 7 nm class features (as 7 nm class doesn't mean actually 7 nm size) as Nikon has shown?

manqiangrexue said:

Now that is a strawman! China's IC manufacturing is just taking off. 2020 is a snapshot of the before picture, the beginning of China's sharp growth trends yet you with to present it as a completed picture. And that's discounting the bit you deleted where you basically tried to imagine China's results away LOL.

The post you quoted never said that ASML is doomed and will die out; if anything, they will be protected by tariffs and bans to continue to live on as the lithography company of the West, but the rise of Chinese lithography will weaken ASML's position in the world as these Chinese machinese will doubtlessly provide a more cost-efficient alternative for the free world to choose and for China to embrace. AMSL will go from having a global monopoly to holding onto a bastion of clients by anti-China bans and regulations. Weaker? Yes, just like Nutrient said. Doomed, no, that's your strawman.

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According to industry forecasts that I've read, even in 2025 more than half of IC production in China will come from foreign companies. The Made in China 2025 goal set the ambitious target of manufacturing 70% the value of the IC market in China. They seem to be on track to reach 20% by 2025.

China first needs to grow its domestic IC industry, otherwise its lithography toolmakers will not be able to scale up to the level to challenge the current leader. Just in this year alone, the top three players: Samsung, Intel and TSMC will invest over $80bn dollars into growing their business. It was way back in 2014 that China set up its National Integrated Circuit Plan with the goal of investing $150 billion in the semiconductor industry. All the money was spent by 2020, but with very little to show.

If you look at the general geopolitical situation, there is a general drive from countries and region around the world to prop up their domestic semiconductor industry. ASML stands to reap huge rewards from this redundant and inefficient allocation of investment.

I thought you would suggest that China's lithography systems may compete against ASML because they will be cheaper. If you look at ASML's competition: Nikon offers DUV immersion systems that on paper appear to offer pretty much the same performance as ASML's systems and they are a lot cheaper. Despite that, ASML's share of the DUV immersion market in the last three years ranged from 95% to 85%. Obviously, the customers know best where the true value lies, regarldess of what the marketing brochures may claim. ASML is so far ahead of everybody else that it's not even funny.

Instead of betting against ASML, you should've bet in favor of them. Anyone who did in the last 5 years made a very nice profit on their stocks.

FairAndUnbiased said:

You realize that 90 nm resolution doesn't mean 90 nm process node, because process node doesn't actually correlate with any specific feature size since 90 nm, right?

You also realize that 90 nm is close to the resolution limit for dry etch before immersion is required? And that 90 nm dry etch is competitive with Japanese lithography systems so at minimum it still has a market regardless of ASML?

Do you realize you can double resolution with a 90 nm dry etch system if you have a sufficiently high performance wafer stage and double pattern?

And you realize that 28 nm with double patterning can yield 7 nm class features (as 7 nm class doesn't mean actually 7 nm size) as Nikon has shown?

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If SMEE systems are as good as you claim, why are they not used for processes under 90nm? Some publications I've read claim that even the 90nm SMEE tool is just a prototype, useless for mass manufacturing.

Getting the wafer stage and rest of the system performance to the level where you can do double, triple or quadruple patterning is just as challenging as getting the baseline resolution right. Complex features on 7nm require more than just double patterning with DUV immersion.

As far as I know, DUV cannot do 28nm. The physical limit is 32 nm. 28nm must refer to to the process name.

It's well understood in the industry that single exposure EUV products have superior electrical features to DUV multiple exposure products. Anyone stuck on DUV, will have a hard time to competing in performance.

nlalyst said:

If SMEE systems are as good as you claim, why are they not used for processes under 90nm? Some publications I've read claim that even the 90nm SMEE tool is just a prototype, useless for mass manufacturing.

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Generally, these posts are assumptions made by some individuals that are not even related to the industry, not official statements. Actually, nobody knows, what I do know is that they arrived late to the market, when they began to commercialize their dry lithography system, ASML had already monopolized the Chinese market and without the American sanctions nobody would give them the time of day. But the situation has changed and there is a lot of pressure to improve their lithography systems.