Chinese semiconductor industry

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latenlazy

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Depends. Front end processes you can use EUV on but metallization layers can be done with DUV. So it's not really doubling all steps, it is just doubling the steps that would have otherwise used EUV.
Of course, but the basic point still stands. Double patterning where you need it is incredibly costly to your unit economics, in general much more so than the other cost and workflow tradeoffs you’re making with EUV.
You also need specialized hardcoat resists for EUV due to the fact that typical polymeric resists don't have the resolution required (photoacid diffusion, secondary electron generation). That's an entire new supply chain and cost contributor that would not have otherwise been there. So EUV might not be as decisive as originally envisioned.
The supply chain costs are what they are, but the operational costs and, *especially*, production risks, are far bigger drivers of fabrication economics than the often fixed input costs of the equipment. EUV does involve some cost tradeoffs, but I think it’s pretty clear what the companies that run the fabs think of those tradeoffs given that they’re bringing EUV into their mature sub 10 nm lines, not simply using them for the nodes at the limits of the frontier.
Speaking of thermal output, transistors per mm2 is likely to be a less and less relevant metric as time goes on because of the dark silicon problem. Without solving this problem the end performance will just hit a brick wall.
Density *does* become less of a meaningful metric as you go smaller, but to be very clear that’s not the same thing as node shrinks becoming less meaningful. You don’t just do shrinks to pack more transistors in an area, but to make the transistors perform faster and more efficiently as well. As you go to sub 5nm nodes I think what we’ll see is less density scaling as transistors are spaced out more, but nonetheless performance gains from having faster more power efficient transistors.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Of course, but the basic point still stands. Double patterning where you need it is incredibly costly to your unit economics, in general much more so than the other cost and workflow tradeoffs you’re making with EUV.

The supply chain costs are what they are, but the operational costs and, *especially*, production risks, are far bigger drivers of fabrication economics than the often fixed input costs of the equipment. EUV does involve some cost tradeoffs, but I think it’s pretty clear what the companies that run the fabs think of those tradeoffs given that they’re bringing EUV into their mature sub 10 nm lines, not simply using them for the nodes at the limits of the frontier.

Density *does* become less of a meaningful metric as you go smaller, but to be very clear that’s not the same thing as node shrinks becoming less meaningful. You don’t just do shrinks to pack more transistors in an area, but to make the transistors perform faster and more efficiently as well. As you go to sub 5nm nodes I think what we’ll see is less density scaling as transistors are spaced out more, but nonetheless performance gains from having faster more power efficient transistors.
By what mechanism is the transistors getting "faster and more power efficient" if TSMC is sticking with FinFET? Samsung and Intel at least have a new architecture: gate all around. There is a possibility of that happening. But if you stick with the same architecture, it goes to reason that gains are going to come from die shrinks and not a more efficient architecture.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
By what mechanism is the transistors getting "faster and more power efficient" if TSMC is sticking with FinFET? Samsung and Intel at least have a new architecture: gate all around. There is a possibility of that happening. But if you stick with the same architecture, it goes to reason that gains are going to come from die shrinks and not a more efficient architecture.
TSMC is moving to GAA too. But even without a different transistor design simply shifting to a smaller structure will tend to confer individual transistor performance gains (and yes I’m aware this relationship has been breaking down at sub 10 nm, but so far what we’ve seen is that small design and process adjustments have been able to preserve some performance scaling relationships even at 7 and 5 nm, though not as optimally).
 
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caudaceus

Senior Member
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I think 14-28 nm domestic immersion DUV is going to come out soon, within 1-2 years, since ArF laser is already made so the big bottlenecks are the mechanical stage and water management system. Once you have ArF laser, it is not such a large leap to go to immersion.

Building on immersion DUV experience, the transferrable tech to EUV is only the mechanical stage. However, everything else will be different, since EUV does not propagate in air and thus you need vacuum for transmission, since EUV photoionizes air. That means everything must now be retooled from atmospheric pressure to 100% gas tight vacuum including literally every single component. That is why ASML takes so long: EUV is far more rigid in its requirements than DUV and every single part is much more expensive.

The problem is that with vacuum, outgassing becomes a huge deal, including the specific chemistry of the outgassed species since EUV can also photopolymerize contaminants on top of the wafer or on mirror optics and destroy it. You cannot have any plastics in the EUV light stream either, since they will degrade, outgas, and potentially photopolymerize elsewhere. That will require new development of all mechanical stages and optics for vacuum and EUV compatibility.

Due to the massive number of parts that must be vacuum certified or developed to be vacuum compatible instead of merely cleanroom compatible, I put EUV at 5-8 years out. A 2025-2027 timeframe is optimistic. I put it at "pre 2030".
Which company do the EUV development in China? SMEE?

Also I'd like to know your opinion about Chinese local EDA as an insider. Are they also able to design state of the art nodes?
 

antonius123

Junior Member
Registered Member
My point is that in terms of transistor cost, is 28nm DUV actually cheaper than 7nm EUV?

If 28nm has the lowest cost per transistor, there's no need for 7nm for all sorts of applications.

Consider how all the manufacturers of Flash Memory are sticking with 28nm processes, because it doesn't make any sense to go smaller.

The 7nm and smaller enable CPU to run faster and consume less energy. This is for the flagship smartphones.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Which company do the EUV development in China? SMEE?

Also I'd like to know your opinion about Chinese local EDA as an insider. Are they also able to design state of the art nodes?

I have no idea about EDA. My direct experience is in non-lithography equipment. Not design, not software, and only a little lithography (the parts that go to lithography have specific preparation specs in common).

From my somewhat layman's understanding of EDA
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and are very strong in analog and mixed signal, but not leading edge digital. However, Empyrean is the real deal, because
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.
 

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have no idea about EDA. My direct experience is in non-lithography equipment. Not design, not software, and only a little lithography (the parts that go to lithography have specific preparation specs in common).

From my somewhat layman's understanding of EDA
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and are very strong in analog and mixed signal, but not leading edge digital. However, Empyrean is the real deal, because
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
Thanks for the response!
I just worried that even though China has indigenous hardware tooling ready, the software is still the bottleneck. Remember that Cotton and McFaul proposed a bill to embargo EDA software in entirety.
 
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