Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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Since you work in the industry @FairAndUnbiased . Do you think it's feasible for China to have domestic EUV by 2025-2027?
@FairAndUnbiased and bro to add more since we are on topic regarding chips, if Huawei in collaboration with SMIC can able to design and produced a 7nm 3D Stacking chipset, can they able to stay competitive in 2023 until SMEE EUVL come on line in 2024?
 

MixedReality

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Huawei should stay in the smartphone market by dominating the low and mid end market until the technology for the high end chips are sorted. 7nm in 2023 is more than good enough to dominate the low and mid tier smartphone market. Continuing to get revenue from the smartphone division is the most important thing. Harmony OS can also be further developed in the low and mid end market. Many people around the world can’t afford high end smartphones.

Also the upgrade cycle of new smartphones is getting longer because many people don’t see the point of upgrading to a new smartphone for a small increase in performance, it’s not worth the money. I don’t know of anyone that buys a new smartphone every year. People wait around 3 years to upgrade until they see a noticeable difference in performance/technology etc.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

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The problem is that with vacuum, outgassing becomes a huge deal, including the specific chemistry of the outgassed species since EUV can also photopolymerize contaminants on top of the wafer or on mirror optics and destroy it.
This might seem like a silly question, but why couldn't you just hold the vacuum for a while before you start the EUV so all the trapped gases have time to desorb? Also, the optics at least have minuscule surface defects (they must to refract and reflect the EUV light properly), so won't that mean there's also very few nanoscale surface pockets to trap a gas?
Due to the massive number of parts that must be vacuum certified or developed to be vacuum compatible instead of merely cleanroom compatible, I put EUV at 5-8 years out. A 2025-2027 timeframe is optimistic. I put it at "pre 2030".
Why wouldn't all this work be being done now and the 2025 projections already take it into account? I assume "a part is complete" or a "component has been delivered" means it's been certified to work under vacuum.
 

dfrtyhgj

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If DUV and then EUV machines are perfected in the next 3 years, I reckon another 5-10 years to build out 200+ fabs in China

That should take China to over 50% of global semiconductor production.

I reckon there's a 80% chance of this scenario happening.
If the tech is ready, China can build all the fabs they need in 2 years or less, it's wartime production mode for them.
 

dfrtyhgj

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I think it very likely that TSMC have such contingency plans to destroy their fabs if there is an invasion.

They probably think it would serve as a deterrent to China. And perhaps it was actually a real deterrent in times past.

But now, China can simply threaten severe punishment to anyone who carries out such plans.

After all, they will not be able to escape Taiwan as there are no planes or ships able to leave
No, TSMC employees have contingency plans to hand over the fabs if there's an invasion to save their own lives (and be rewarded with a lifetime of riches). Just like what happened in Afghanistan, the West is finished.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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This might seem like a silly question, but why couldn't you just hold the vacuum for a while before you start the EUV so all the trapped gases have time to desorb? Also, the optics at least have minuscule surface defects (they must to refract and reflect the EUV light properly), so won't that mean there's also very few nanoscale surface pockets to trap a gas?

Why wouldn't all this work be being done now and the 2025 projections already take it into account? I assume "a part is complete" or a "component has been delivered" means it's been certified to work under vacuum.

The problem with vacuum cycling is that cycling down to a high enough vacuum to avoid EUV absorption takes a long time due to water vapor desorption (reducing yield), and water can catalyze photopolymerization for trace organic contaminants. Even with dry gas purge,
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since the partial pressure of water in the ambient air is going to be far higher than the dry gas purging.

And whatever part you're cycling vacuum for, that part still has to be vacuum compatible. Indeed, some materials that are not vacuum cycling compatible, are actually compatible for 100% under vacuum, such as materials which has high gas permeability (thus can trap gases if allowed to cycle to air) but no native outgassing of its own (meaning if its 100% under vacuum it stays low outgassing).

Since you need vacuum for etch and deposition anyways, it's much easier to just have everything be under vacuum and only have a few vacuum-atmosphere transitions.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

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@FairAndUnbiased and bro to add more since we are on topic regarding chips, if Huawei in collaboration with SMIC can able to design and produced a 7nm 3D Stacking chipset, can they able to stay competitive in 2023 until SMEE EUVL come on line in 2024?

yes, in fact memory companies have moved away from shrinking nodes into 3D stacking to reduce costs. Stacking plays to China's strengths in etch, deposition and packaging, while reducing reliance on lithography which is China's weakness.

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tch1972

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But in year 2025, 2nm will be widely used and mass produced already and 1nm may be available already; China has to be on 3nm and mass produce 5nm at least at that time, this to keep the distance of 2 generation with the market leader maintained at least.

I am not an expert in this field, but logically speaking, wouldn't it be better to maintain 5nm node for longer period to recoup the extremely high cost of R&D?

And especially the cost of lower nodes are much higher which mean longer time period is needed to milk on the market than expected.

Introducing it replacement so soon might not be good marketing strategy eventhough they might be technically ready for 3nm or lower nodes.

If this is the case, it might provide china more room to catch up.

Just my layman understanding.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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I am not an expert in this field, but logically speaking, wouldn't it be better to maintain 5nm node for longer period to recoup the extremely high cost of R&D?

And especially the cost of lower nodes are much higher which mean longer time period is needed to milk on the market than expected.

Introducing it replacement so soon might not be good marketing strategy eventhough they might be technically ready for 3nm or lower nodes.

If this is the case, it might provide china more room to catch up.

Just my layman understanding.
this is exactly it.

every new node has literally exponentially increasing costs. Without a market for it, the relentless node improvement requirements are unsustainable economically.

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