That means China will be always 2 generation behind the leader. It will be OK if China doesnt pursue to become technology leader.
Even the laggard Europe now plan to close the gap with the leader TSMC and Samsung.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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That means China will be always 2 generation behind the leader. It will be OK if China doesnt pursue to become technology leader.
Even the laggard Europe now plan to close the gap with the leader TSMC and Samsung.
this is exactly it.
every new node has literally exponentially increasing costs. Without a market for it, the relentless node improvement requirements are unsustainable economically.
The high cost can be absorbed by the clients like Apple, Samsung, Huawei etc, thats why the price of premium smartphone is far more expensive.
TSMC themself never suffer loss due to the 5nm and 3nm, in fact they enjoy high profit. You will never suffer loss if you invest according to the demand; the demand for premium is always there.
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@antonius123 brother not ALWAYS the word I will used is IN A MEANTIME. For me competition is good it advances human knowledge and progress, If you're working under extreme adversity you can create miracles and we had been surprise many times before what I'm afraid of if China did achieved the technological crown it may slacken their effort and become complacent. Complacency is the reason for America current problems and decline and the end result of that is SURPRISE, ANGER, DENIAL, DEPRESSION and finally ACCEPTANCE. I think currently they're at the denial stage and may take 10 years before accepting the inevitable.
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no, the high cost in the end will be absorbed by customers, who will be the ones that decide whether they want to pay for the premium or not.
this is exactly it.
every new node has literally exponentially increasing costs. Without a market for it, the relentless node improvement requirements are unsustainable economically.
Thanks for posting that chart.
That chart is crazy.
China probably should not even try to catch up in this race.
TSMC must sell those 5nm to the phone makers. That means Apple, and the Chinese companies.
It gets to a point, where they cannot go any smaller. But right against that border, is the most expensive to make. That is the last generation of that type of silicone chip.
Then next, some other material or format will replace the silicone chip. The 2nm chip may be the most expensive obsolete item ever produced.
China should just stay in the race, with the legacy chips. The important thing to do is to research the new materials.
antiterror13
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EU also has 2 generations gap, also the US .. for Japan even worse, 3-4 generations gap
exactly this. it's actually even worse, because even atThanks for posting that chart.
That chart is crazy.
China probably should not even try to catch up in this race.
TSMC must sell those 5nm to the phone makers. That means Apple, and the Chinese companies.
It gets to a point, where they cannot go any smaller. But right against that border, is the most expensive to make. That is the last generation of that type of silicone chip.
Then next, some other material or format will replace the silicone chip. The 2nm chip may be the most expensive obsolete item ever produced.
China should just stay in the race, with the legacy chips. The important thing to do is to research the new materials.
the only way to beat the tyranny of capital cost and thermal management is to not play the game and find an entirely new physical principle. Memory manufacturers found it: 3D stacking. YMTC went further and did bonding between wafers, instead of stacking on a single wafer.
I believe eventually, advanced packaging with through-silicon vias will be the default for SoCs and trying to get the smallest die shrink will not be useful anymore.
Thanks for posting that chart.
That chart is crazy.
China probably should not even try to catch up in this race.
TSMC must sell those 5nm to the phone makers. That means Apple, and the Chinese companies.
It gets to a point, where they cannot go any smaller. But right against that border, is the most expensive to make. That is the last generation of that type of silicone chip.
Then next, some other material or format will replace the silicone chip. The 2nm chip may be the most expensive obsolete item ever produced.
China should just stay in the race, with the legacy chips. The important thing to do is to research the new materials.
btw, another thing is that the chart only shows design cost for the fabless customer. That is the cost before a single wafer is shipped, that they just eat on the spot. That is the cost per chip design, but rarely does a fabless company only have 1 chip design.
there's more hidden costs: the cost to startup the new fab, the per wafer cost (materials, fab, test), the marketing cost, increased risk from low yield, etc.
meanwhile if you use advanced packaging techniques like chiplets, through-silicon vias and wafer bonding, the cost gets shifted from lithography (the most expensive step) to packaging (the least expensive step). You also reduce yield risk, since if you have a bad batch for 1 component, you just junk that 1 batch, instead of junking the entire SoC. AMD's chiplet design is an example of how this can improve performance.
EU invest hugely to pursue 2nm to close the gap with the leader, even though they dont pursue to be the leader, and their smartphone vendor like Nokia is not at the forefront yet like Samsung-Apple-Xiaomi-Huawei etc. They dont want to have these gap anymore.
This is their plan in 2020:
China will fall behind US, Europe, Taiwan and Korea if China is reluctant to invest in the forefront technology.
antiterror13
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yeapp thats the plan, but currently they also stuck with 14nm technology, even worse as GF is American company. I am talking about current not the future.
But I totally agree that China should invest in the forefront technology, .. which the do seriously
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