Chinese semiconductor industry

jfcarli said:

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Where on earth did you get the notion that YMTC and for that matter the whole of the NAND Chinese industry could face its demise??????

Do you have any idea of what the Chinese government is doing to boost its semiconductor industry?

YMTC worked all throughout the COVID-19 shutdown of Wuhan. THAT IS HOW IMPORTANT IT IS.

I am sorry but that report of yours is absolute BS!!!!!

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Funny how your response when someone disagrees with your agenda evokes such anger. I send you a FREE article to read and you reply with hostility. Similar to the comments from Seeking Alpha.

I said to MorttyandMike:
"Thank you. Its interesting what you say about the readers comments. The info I supply is FREE for them to read and if my analysis is not favorable for their stock they get abusive. Yet my subscribers to my newsletter pay $400 a year and they are ALWAYS grateful!"

And so, I now stop writing and responding on this thread I don't appreciate nor need the abuse. I am sorry to other readers who appreciated my insight that I withdraw from this thread. It was fun while it lasted.

tinrobert said:

Funny how your response when someone disagrees with your agenda evokes such anger. I send you a FREE article to read and you reply with hostility. Similar to the comments from Seeking Alpha.

I said to MorttyandMike:
"Thank you. Its interesting what you say about the readers comments. The info I supply is FREE for them to read and if my analysis is not favorable for their stock they get abusive. Yet my subscribers to my newsletter pay $400 a year and they are ALWAYS grateful!"

And so, I now stop writing and responding on this thread I don't appreciate nor need the abuse. I am sorry to other readers who appreciated my insight that I withdraw from this thread. It was fun while it lasted.

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I still wonder where did you get the notion that YMTC and for that matter the whole of the NAND Chinese industry could face its demise??????

jfcarli said:

I still wonder where did you get the notion that YMTC and for that matter the whole of the NAND Chinese industry could face its demise??????

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Just ignore him... or take it to PM.

tinrobert said:

Funny how your response when someone disagrees with your agenda evokes such anger. I send you a FREE article to read and you reply with hostility. Similar to the comments from Seeking Alpha.

I said to MorttyandMike:
"Thank you. Its interesting what you say about the readers comments. The info I supply is FREE for them to read and if my analysis is not favorable for their stock they get abusive. Yet my subscribers to my newsletter pay $400 a year and they are ALWAYS grateful!"

And so, I now stop writing and responding on this thread I don't appreciate nor need the abuse. I am sorry to other readers who appreciated my insight that I withdraw from this thread. It was fun while it lasted.

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@tinrobert Sir I hope you stay for a while, your contribution in this forum is highly appreciated. We may need your expertise and opinion as more news will come out regarding Chineses IC and for the rest of us who valued your insight, we wish you reconsider.

tinrobert said:

Funny how your response when someone disagrees with your agenda evokes such anger. I send you a FREE article to read and you reply with hostility. Similar to the comments from Seeking Alpha.

I said to MorttyandMike:
"Thank you. Its interesting what you say about the readers comments. The info I supply is FREE for them to read and if my analysis is not favorable for their stock they get abusive. Yet my subscribers to my newsletter pay $400 a year and they are ALWAYS grateful!"

And so, I now stop writing and responding on this thread I don't appreciate nor need the abuse. I am sorry to other readers who appreciated my insight that I withdraw from this thread. It was fun while it lasted.

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I think I speak for many people on this forum when I say that I feel disappointed and sad this happened to you. I feel it's like private vs public healthcare, people who have free healthcare feel it's a right not a privilege. Their reactions are very different.

And thank you for your article which you kindly provided to us for free. It was very enlightening. I'm impressed with your analysis and tables especially for comparison between the foundaries. Very insightful!

I sincerely do hope you will join us again and not let the few dissenting voices deter you. Otherwise I will continue to look forward to your future articles.

Chish said:

The fact that US and Japan have to work together to counter China achievements in this field proved that China is doing just fine by itself. They just acknowledged that China can innovate and are moving ahead, can't claim the Chinese are copying or stealing. If they can't manage to overtake China, they may have to ban the Chinese just like the 5G saga.
On the other hand, I think the Chinese do have some significance cooperation with Austria in this field.

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A reverse ban on the the US and Japan is needed. Just ban Japanese car makers in China, as the car industry is still a source of $$ and pride for the Japanese.

taxiya said:

Something will be achieved because the plan says so?

That reminds me of "人有多大胆，地有多大产" from the "Great Leap Forward" days. If you are not Chinese speaker, here is the translation "one can produce as much crop as one dare to imagine".

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For steel, the Great Leap Forward actually worked. The goal was to double the production, from 5.9 million tons in 1958 to 10.7 million tons. China was producing 12.2 million tons. So for steel at least, the GLF was a success. It was unfortunate and simply bad luck that China had consecutive years of drought at the same time, so food production went down.

For semiconductors, Beijing isn't only giving orders to make it so. The country is advancing on a broad front, and not relying on a single company. SMIC may not succeed, but YMTC, Huawei, Hua Hong Grace, ByD, Tencent, Alibaba, and probably lots more organizations, will not all fail. Some are likely to succeed; if they do, China wins big.

You also said that "talent is the limit". So how do you translate that "unlimited funding" to the needed talent before they can be put into use to achieve the goal of 2025? The talent is not just a degree from the university, it includes experiences that are acquired through years of hands on working.

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There is a talent gap, yes, but the shortage is temporary. Soon China will likely have more people in semiconductors than the rest of the world combined -- and they will serve a local market bigger than the rest of the world combined.

Nutrient said:

For steel, the Great Leap Forward actually worked. The goal was to double the production, from 5.9 million tons in 1958 to 10.7 million tons.

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China was producing 12.2 million tons. So for steel at least, the GLF was a success. It was unfortunate and simply bad luck that China had consecutive years of drought at the same time, so food production went down.

For semiconductors, Beijing isn't only giving orders to make it so. The country is advancing on a broad front, and not relying on a single company. SMIC may not succeed, but YMTC, Huawei, Hua Hong Grace, ByD, Tencent, Alibaba, and probably lots more organizations, will not all fail. Some are likely to succeed; if they do, China wins big.




There is a talent gap, yes, but the shortage is temporary. Soon China will likely have more people in semiconductors than the rest of the world combined -- and they will serve a local market bigger than the rest of the world combined.

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Not so sure if GLF is success with steel industry because the backyard furnace only produced low quality steel. Eager party functionary count them as good steel. But good thing about GLF is bringing industry to the country side that morph into TVE(township, village enterprises) during the reform era. They really kick start whole swath of industry in vast Chinese country side. Some of then are privatized and become large enterprises specially in textile industry and pot and pan industry

The last I heard China buys 60% of the world's chip market so I don't know why anyone would think the rest of the world's chip industry that shares the remaining 40% gives them the edge over China. They lose 60%. Not to mention how it'll cost them even more than ever to produce chips now. Excluding China... their costs to produce goes up not down. That's how business works. They always find a way to make it cost as less as possible because someone else will beat them eventually. And some spin that other countries that now want to produce chips somehow goes against China? Anyone else who wants to get into the game thinking of excluding China are making that 40% of the world's share worse for everyone else unless they're planning to sell them to China. If everyone is producing their own chips for themselves, that goes against the US. China has little to worry about other players because the rest that has to divide the 40% of the pie among each other even more while China still holds the majority 60% exclusively all by itself.