Chinese semiconductor industry

Status
Not open for further replies.
krautmeister

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
jfcarli said:
I agree with you completely, except for this:

"Much better to continue importing needed semiconductors now just as China has been doing for the last past decades and gain a truly independent and sanction proof domestic semiconductor industry in the next few years."

I think China should continue to buy all semicon equipment it can lay its hands on. Not only that, all spare parts it can buy, and all the needed chemicals etc... enough to guarantee a decent supply of chips for at least a couple of years.

What I fear is that they will simply stop supplying any chips at all. So, the more you can produce locally, even if only with DUV, the better.
Click to expand...
Good point, China has no choice but to continue doing this. I am just extremely skeptical how much longer this will last. It's sort of like the situation Huawei is under. Huawei knew it was going to eventually be completely blanket sanctioned at some point, so they started stockpiling crucial chips. These stockpiled chips will probably last up until sometime later this year, but after that time, it's going to be bad news for them. So, I see your point. China has to build up its semiconductor manufacturing capacity ASAP despite the risk of American demands to sanction sales to China companies it targets, even with Nikon equipment. I see this as a race against time. The first leg of the race is achieving minimal chip self-sufficiency of >=28nm ICs whether it is from domestic equipment and materials or not. Once this is achieved, all bets are off because after this point, China has to establish its own domestic semiconductor supply chains before the Americans expand their attacks to more comprehensively attack China in all other areas. The wildcard is whether some of their puppets grow a pair and break away from this stupid and needless confrontation.
 
krautmeister

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
I would disagree.

Suppose China produced the majority of the world's semiconductors, entirely using foreign semiconductor equipment and materials.

The US couldn't credibly impose sanctions, because it would hurt the US more than China.
And furthermore, the rest of the world wouldn't go along, because they know they have no choice but to support continued production in China and to buy those chips.

But we never got to that point before the US technology sanctions started.

And that's not to say China shouldn't seeking to develop its own domestic semiconductor equipment and material.
Click to expand...
Good points, but honestly, I've seen so many self defeating American policies over my life that such rational win-win thinking is really not what Americans are about. They very often harm themselves with their own policies if they believe it will harm their perceived adversary more. This kind of twisted thinking is what has guided their foreign policy since the end of WWII. This is why the word "Blowback" exists and why they had to create sister organizations like the NED (National Endowment for Democracy) to do their dirty work because the CIA became such a well known symbol of American shitt*ness.
 
G

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
One thing to remember is that "self-sufficiency" is all relative. Technically anyone can be "self-sufficient" by pursuing autarky - North Korea is relatively "self-sufficient" today. But in the context we are talking about, it means self-sufficiency at the bleeding edge of technology, or very close to it. The significance of this is that your country's technologies are competitive. Thus "self-sufficiency" is not tied forever to any particular node or technological level. Rather it is a measure of your country's ability to stay at the leading edge of technology. Thus the important thing for China is to build up the institutional and cultural environment conducive to scientific advance and innovation such that it can stay competitive with the US-backed alliance in the long run, and not just any particular technologies. If China has the institutional and cultural environment conducive to long-run R&D, it will be OK and the technological advances will come no matter what. But there are many elements of this ranging from ability to attract talent, to the correct use of markets, and the correct use of government investment.
 
D

Deleted member 15949

Guest
gadgetcool5 said:
One thing to remember is that "self-sufficiency" is all relative. Technically anyone can be "self-sufficient" by pursuing autarky - North Korea is relatively "self-sufficient" today. But in the context we are talking about, it means self-sufficiency at the bleeding edge of technology, or very close to it. The significance of this is that your country's technologies are competitive. Thus "self-sufficiency" is not tied forever to any particular node or technological level. Rather it is a measure of your country's ability to stay at the leading edge of technology. Thus the important thing for China is to build up the institutional and cultural environment conducive to scientific advance and innovation such that it can stay competitive with the US-backed alliance in the long run, and not just any particular technologies. If China has the institutional and cultural environment conducive to long-run R&D, it will be OK and the technological advances will come no matter what. But there are many elements of this ranging from ability to attract talent, to the correct use of markets, and the correct use of government investment.
Click to expand...
Agreed. You'll need the education, infrastructure, business environment, research, competition and immigration policies set correctly with government fiscal incentives for automation and technology adoption as well as *some* government intervention in particularly capital intensive sectors. Here, just based on Chinese university graduates, the policy environment in China is fairly good. You don't have the fastest economic growth ever seen with bad policy
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
gadgetcool5 said:
One thing to remember is that "self-sufficiency" is all relative. Technically anyone can be "self-sufficient" by pursuing autarky - North Korea is relatively "self-sufficient" today. But in the context we are talking about, it means self-sufficiency at the bleeding edge of technology, or very close to it. The significance of this is that your country's technologies are competitive. Thus "self-sufficiency" is not tied forever to any particular node or technological level. Rather it is a measure of your country's ability to stay at the leading edge of technology. Thus the important thing for China is to build up the institutional and cultural environment conducive to scientific advance and innovation such that it can stay competitive with the US-backed alliance in the long run, and not just any particular technologies. If China has the institutional and cultural environment conducive to long-run R&D, it will be OK and the technological advances will come no matter what. But there are many elements of this ranging from ability to attract talent, to the correct use of markets, and the correct use of government investment.
Click to expand...
@gadgetcool5 correct bro nicely done and one of those conducing factor is being sanction and an adversarial attitude of the US and the West. No amount of encourage and support will do unless your business or lives is at risk. A hard lesson learned throughout the existence of the CPC, self -sufficiency through ones work , borrow , steal or whatever as being hostage thru grace from other nation is NOT AN OPTION.
 
V

visitor123

New Member
Registered Member
5 villages with 100 people each decide to form 5 separate countries and trade with each other
vs
a country with 1 billion people with the size of continent trading without no other nation.

the muppets around here believe that the 5 villages will achieve greater prosperity because "muh autarky."
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top