This will be solved by tariffs on imported IC equipment.
First step, on 2022 Q2 when the 28nm DUV manchine becomes available, slap a nice fat 100% tariff on importing foreign 28nm DUV equipment.
If ASML wants to play hardball then bring it on. China will kill ASML's old process equipment sales on first half of 2022 in China
When Intel decided to switch their semiconductor lithography machine purchases from Nikon to ASML, this totally devastated Nikon's equipment business. Over 80% of its semiconductor equipment sales were to Intel. Nikon high end lithography sales are dying. Last I heard, their total global semiconductor equipment market share has now dropped close to ~6%. Nikon's high-end DUV machines were already selling for less than half the cost of ASML DUV equipment. After Intel stopped supporting Nikon, they started a price cutting campaign in 2020, which failed to gain new customers. Even a 100% tariff on equipment sales is not enough to prevent "
some" China fabs from buying Nikon low priced high-end DUV equipment.
As long as Nikon, and to a lesser extent Canon, exist as alternative suppliers of lithography machinery, China's own nascent lithography equipment industry will be confined mostly to China. The semiconductor industry outside China is totally dominated by the Americans and their puppets. For China to guarantee success, they need to start as the low cost supplier of lithography equipment. As long as Nikon is taking that space, China will not be able to break through it without superior technology, which it does not yet have. The first step is to ensure China's equipment makers have the government support, business and profits to sustain competition with ASML.
Sooner or later, America and its puppets will concoct "National Security" excuses to block China equipment sales. Imo, China should be protecting this crucial industry with something like 100-300% tariffs, and if necessary, outright sales bans. I only list tariffs vs sales bans to allow the more delusional China companies the ability to buy such foreign equipment in order to give them market
DISADVANTAGES in order to bankrupt themselves easier. It's these kind of China companies who ignore the hostile strategic environment created by the Americans, are exactly what the Americans rely and depend on to harm China's business environment and society at large.
