This article probably been posted here before.
The most important part is this part.
However, Shen said that the chances of success for such a US-Japan alliance are low, as different countries have varying interests.
"The semiconductor industry requires huge input in R&D. It then needs a huge market to gain economies of scale," Shen noted.
Shen said it would be hard for companies to give up the Chinese market in four years, or the term of the Biden administration, if the US government does not forcibly apply non-market measures such as a downright ban on chip exports.
Does not matter how many bans are put into place, reality is the middle paragraph.
Do not argue with reality, because reality will win. Always.
If there is a ban, then so what. China probably has self-sufficiency at the 28mn or higher, which is the majority of chips, and going to 14nm and 7nm mass production.
If 7nm or 5nm is banned from China, guess there will only be Samsung making cell phones in the world for the time being.
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Here is the point the Liberal media never talks, because they do not know.
With this type of market disruption, that is an micro-economic question.
It is just like a tariff. Briefly, the government imposing a tariff, will create winners and losers, in any industry.
If there is a worldwide effort to ban IC from China, such as using 1000% export tax for instance, then who are the winners and loser?
TSMC or Samsung? Are they gonna feel like winners?
In times like these, you play it cool and play along.
See what breaks.
