Chinese semiconductor industry

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Xizor

Xizor

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horse said:
I heard there is a chip shortage worldwide, and some factories have stopped production or limited production.

Others factories seem to have avoided that with stockpiles.

China already penetrated the American market, the trade figures clearly show that.
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No it hasn't. We are talking about semiconductors.
Even beyond that, many technology companies from China aren't given a good reception in US.

Let's just hope Huawei gets the pilot fabs right as well as SMIC get more domestic with the tooling.

I'm giving China 5 years. Coronavirus has destroyed the economies of virtually every other significant country.
 
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Oldschool

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Micron jump ahead of Samsung and hynix. 176 layer nand flash ahead of Korean..

Intel latest is its Fab doing foundry for automotives.

US wants semiconductor back.

Taiwan and korea will suffer eventually.

China Indeginous drive. Latest from Huawei is it will focus on EV, OS less on 5G. It's own stockpile of chips for most part enough for domestic 5g stations. It's cellphone output is dropping like a rock as xioami and Oppo picking up it's volume.
None of hisilicon chips can be manufactured currently. That means SMIC not willing to risk it. Huawei is paying its sin of not willing to getting into semiconductor manufacturing and sponsoring domestic equipments 15 yrs ago . It had money though.

Semiconductor landscape is changing.
 
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Nutrient

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Orthan said:
CNBC article about semiconductors. The gap betwen smic and tsmc may widen further.

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The gap between SMIC and TSMC may widen, as TSMC has a large lead. But then the gap will very likely shrink, and then SMIC could start leading.

The plain fact is that TSMC doesn't have much more technological room: Moore's Law is dying if not already dead. They can go to 3 nm and maybe even 2 nm, and then they'll be stuck. SMIC will have plenty of time to catch up.

Perhaps something new will keep the chip technology growing exponentially, such as graphene, nanotubes, or photonics. But in that case, mainland China has as at least as good a chance as Taiwan to win.
 
quantumlight

quantumlight

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Nutrient said:
The gap between SMIC and TSMC may widen, as TSMC has a large lead. But then the gap will very likely shrink.

The plain fact is that TSMC doesn't have much more technological room: Moore's Law is dying if not already dead. They can go to 3 nm and maybe even 2 nm, and then then they'll be stuck. China will have plenty of time to catch up.

Perhaps something new will keep the chip technology growing exponentially, such as graphene, nanotubes, or photonics. But in that case, mainland China has as at least as good a chance as Taiwan to win.
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Moores law been dead for a long while now...

If push comes to shove China just needs to lodge a missile at TSMC and entire globe will be stuck at 5nm for the next decade
 
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Skywatcher

Captain
Hendrik_2000 said:
NO I see with my own eye what socalled african student do in China They just good for nothing wasting Chinese tax payer and Beijing compulsive effort to be champion of third world to blame
China did provide scholarship to these African with the intend for them to return to Africa and contribute to their society NOT for the to loiter in Chinese cities and harass women and loafing!

Chinese permanent residence are hard to get sofar only less 2000 issued!
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Are you sure you're not one of Gordan Gutherie Chang's split personalities?
 
horse

horse

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Xsizor said:
No it hasn't. We are talking about semiconductors.
Even beyond that, many technology companies from China aren't given a good reception in US.

Let's just hope Huawei gets the pilot fabs right as well as SMIC get more domestic with the tooling.

I'm giving China 5 years. Coronavirus has destroyed the economies of virtually every other significant country.
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In that case, the American semiconductor market size is only 1/5th of the size of the Chinese semiconductor market.

Efforts in the future will always going to be geared to the market that is 5x times bigger.

The American government is complaining to anyone who listens, cough cough the media, and the media dutifully reports these complaints.

If they do not like the facts on the ground, then what are they going to do about it?

One suggestion is to force companies to leave China. They really want to force IC companies from leaving the biggest chip market in the world.

Another suggestion is to force the relocation of supply chains. They really want to force the supply chain from leaving the biggest chip market and the BIGGEST manufacturing base/market in the world.

I hope we can see that the American government is just bullshitting here.
 
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Nutrient

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quantumlight said:
But in reality [China's consumption of semis is 5 times the US's is] not comparing China to US directly... You must compare China to US and all vassals under US thumb...

Most of that China semiconductor consumption gets re-exported. A blanket ban means no Intel chips enter China, so Dell, Hp etc have to move their production lines out of China to India, Vietnam, Mexico... suddenly when most Western companies follow suit that seemingly impressive China share of semiconductor market collapses overnight...
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Let us picture the best scenario for the US and the worst for China: that a total ban on semiconductor sales to China would prevent China from exporting anything. This is what the US hopes in its wildest dreams. But even in that unlikely scenario, the US will probably lose.

The reason is that China's internal market will continue to grow, even if the exports die off. China's per-capita GDP is still low, which means the country still can grow several times over. The Middle Kingdom now has all the tools, all the manpower, all the (STEM) brains, and all the market needed to keep that expansion going. China's economy will still become several times the size of the US's.

Meanwhile, US companies will shrink because they'll have lost a major market (China), and the rest of the slowly growing world will be unlikely to make up for the loss. So the US will lose if it attempts a total chip ban.
 
BoraTas

BoraTas

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Nutrient said:
Let us picture the best scenario for the US and the worst for China: that a total ban on semiconductor sales to China would prevent China from exporting anything. This is what the US hopes in its wildest dreams. But even in that unlikely scenario, the US will probably lose.

The reason is that China's internal market will continue to grow, even if the exports die off. China's per-capita GDP is still low, which means the country still can grow several times over. The Middle Kingdom now has all the tools, all the manpower, all the (STEM) brains, and all the market needed to keep that expansion going. China's economy will still become several times the size of the US's.

Meanwhile, US companies will shrink because they'll have lost a major market (China), and the rest of the slowly growing world will be unlikely to make up for the loss. So the US will lose if it attempts a total chip ban.
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That kind of a ban is impossible. Not even worth to think about. There is a massive electronics manufacturing business in China. It can not relocatable in a reasonable time. Also how many countries are going to be affected by such an action? Basically all of them. The trade war caused an inflation surge in the whole world. A blanket ban on chips against China would tank the entire electronics industry (a 5 trillion business that also enables a lot of other industries) for 10 years. Especially American OEMs would lose the most.
 
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