Chinese semiconductor industry

voyager1 said:

The US can get the top STEM talent from all around the world, even from China.

And you want China to fight the US, drawing talent only from inside its borders?

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Where I live, in the great frozen Arctic ... Huawei 5G probably will experience some sort of restriction, either official or voluntary.

Huawei has significant research centers all around Canada.

Huawei is a world leader in 5G. Canadian researchers make IP breakthroughs for Huawei, yet Huawei gear is under restriction in Canadians.

That means all 5G research in Canada, that all goes to Huawei. Only Huawei is supporting 5G research in Canada in any serious way.

The white Canadian feels resentful, and so butt hurt over this.

It's hilarious. Ren Zhengfei comes to your house to do the reverse brain drain.

horse said:

Where I live, in the great frozen Arctic ... Huawei 5G probably will experience some sort of restriction, either official or voluntary.

Huawei has significant research centers all around Canada.

Huawei is a world leader in 5G. Canadian researchers make IP breakthroughs for Huawei, yet Huawei gear is under restriction in Canadians.

That means all 5G research in Canada, that all goes to Huawei. Only Huawei is supporting 5G research in Canada in any serious way.

The white Canadian feels resentful, and so butt hurt over this.

It's hilarious. Ren Zhengfei comes to your house to do the reverse brain drain.

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This is not a full Brain Drain though. The researchers are still in Canada. So if a domestic competition picks up then Canada can easily ban the Chinese R&D centers and then hire the trained researchers for its domestic company.

So at most this is 40% Brain Drain

Xsizor said:

Not necessarily.
As it stands right now, it's a winner take all matter. And the winner, if it's called right Now, would be US.

And that'd mean US companies continue to extract revenue and profits from China.

But China winning means China get to dominate its own market. There is no question of penetrating US market as it would never be allowed past the gates.

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I heard there is a chip shortage worldwide, and some factories have stopped production or limited production.

Others factories seem to have avoided that with stockpiles.

China already penetrated the American market, the trade figures clearly show that.

voyager1 said:

This is not a full Brain Drain though. The researchers are still in Canada. So if a domestic competition picks up then Canada can easily ban the Chinese R&D centers and then hire the trained researchers for its domestic company.

So at most this is 40% Brain Drain

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The Canadian government will not do that.

There will be no 5G research in Canada if Huawei research centers are banned like it has been in America.

There is no money. The money is put somewhere else and not in this 5G research.

I think Huawei employs something like 900 researchers in their Canadian R&D labs. If Huawei left Canada, then we have to expect those 900 researchers, many will be leaving too.

horse said:

Yeah, exactly.

Now think ... 1) how long will it take to move out all those down stream factories in all industries that uses chips (a few months, a few years, a few decades) and ... 2) who is gonna put up the money to do that ...

Then there is even a 3) why foreign companies are in China because they want to be in the China market, for example GM sells more cars in China than anywhere else. Therefore, what the US government really is saying they expect GM to build their cars in America then export to China.

I believe it when I see it, and I never seen it. The US government can always sanction an individual company here and there, but to suggest something of this scale, only proves to the CCP that the CCP is kicking American government ass.

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The problem runs deeper than just EUV technology... America has monopoly on x86 and with Nvidia buying ARM, there goes the entire IoT industry... x86/64 includes AMD which and other Intel clones...

Even if SMIC magically catches up tomorrow, it cannot replace the x86 processor. All desktop, laptop, etc use motherboards with sockets and chipsets that are tailored to Intel x86 and even a more limited scope America ban of just Intel processors will force most if not all computer makers to rip their supply chain and factories out of China...

Many software/OS like Windows, Autodesk, Adobe, and even AAA title PC games only work on Windows and only on x86....modern gaming for example requires Directx12, and for that you needs Microsoft Windows 10. Applications like Adobe Photoshop or Autocad, 3dsmax, etc need to be ran on either x86 processor or Apple Mac, all of which US can ban export to China... its the same reason Linux hasnt replaced Windows, because vast majority of software ecosystem was written for Windows. The US oil company I work for still runs some Windows 2003 servers because some properitary applications were written for it decades ago and they cannot just rip it out... Likewise Nvidia pushing the market to adopt DLSS means it has a leg up on AMD GPU, and thats also true for upcoming Chinese GPUs... gamers will wants games that support DLSS and AMD cannot offer that, but most likely US will force TSMC to ban Chinese GPU companies soon...

Even if China can fab 3nm chips tomorrow, most of the computing world are already on US platform and US can and will exploit and leverage this momentum and inertia...

This is just like the Google Play store thing but on a hardware level... Even before TSMC was forced to sever ties with Huawei most consumers in EU dropped Huawei phones when they couldnt support Google Play because they already got entrenched with Gmail, Google Maps, Youtube, etc these are not just apps but also represent other platforms and access to services that Google had built up the network effects of for almost two decades...

Lets be honest, America still has a lot of squeeze left in it yet

Thats not to say China doesnt have some levers too but it needs to start using them Now not later

horse said:

The Canadian government will not do that.

There will be no 5G research in Canada if Huawei research centers are banned like it has been in America.

There is no money. The money is put somewhere else and not in this 5G research.

I think Huawei employs something like 900 researchers in their Canadian R&D labs. If Huawei left Canada, then we have to expect those 900 researchers, many will be leaving too.

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I mean they can find ways to it man. Its not strange.

Just say that is a "national security issue" and the R&D centers will go poof. Put some propaganda about "stealing IP" and thats it.

The US does this like every week with sanctioning Chinese companies

quantumlight said:

The problem runs deeper than just EUV technology... America has monopoly on x86 and with Nvidia buying ARM, there goes the entire IoT industry... x86/64 includes AMD which and other Intel clones...

Even if SMIC magically catches up tomorrow, it cannot replace the x86 processor. All desktop, laptop, etc use motherboards with sockets and chipsets that are tailored to Intel x86 and even a more limited scope America ban of just Intel processors will force most if not all computer makers to rip their supply chain and factories out of China...

Many software/OS like Windows, Autodesk, Adobe, and even AAA title PC games only work on Windows and only on x86....modern gaming for example requires Directx12, and for that you needs Microsoft Windows 10. Applications like Adobe Photoshop or Autocad, 3dsmax, etc need to be ran on either x86 processor or Apple Mac, all of which US can ban export to China... its the same reason Linux hasnt replaced Windows, because vast majority of software ecosystem was written for Windows. The US oil company I work for still runs some Windows 2003 servers because some properitary applications were written for it decades ago and they cannot just rip it out... Likewise Nvidia pushing the market to adopt DLSS means it has a leg up on AMD GPU, and thats also true for upcoming Chinese GPUs... gamers will wants games that support DLSS and AMD cannot offer that, but most likely US will force TSMC to ban Chinese GPU companies soon...

Even if China can fab 3nm chips tomorrow, most of the computing world are already on US platform and US can and will exploit and leverage this momentum and inertia...

This is just like the Google Play store thing but on a hardware level... Even before TSMC was forced to sever ties with Huawei most consumers in EU dropped Huawei phones when they couldnt support Google Play because they already got entrenched with Gmail, Google Maps, Youtube, etc these are not just apps but also represent other platforms and access to services that Google had built up the network effects of for almost two decades...

Lets be honest, America still has a lot of squeeze left in it yet

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Yes. All the Chinese companies who allowed themselves to rely on US software are treasonous. Say what you want about "muh competition" but this is treason.

Btw, this also applies to the Gov which allowed this. The Chinese people have been betrayed once from their own Gov and then again from their treasonous companies.

As a result the whole software stack now relies on US tech. So if Biden one day wakes up and decides to shut down the Chinese economy, gg

quantumlight said:

Lets be honest, America still has a lot of squeeze left in it yet

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Let's be clear here.

Who is America squeezing here? Sounds like American government is squeezing Dell forcing them to allocate capital away from China.

Look at it for the CCP view. All CCP is going to say is yes, the Americans can squeeze Dell as much as they want.

(It is sort of like the replay of the Vietnam War, where the Americans have to burn down the village to save the village.)

voyager1 said:

I mean they can find ways to it man. Its not strange.

Just say that is a "national security issue" and the R&D centers will go poof. Put some propaganda about "stealing IP" and thats it.

The US does this like every week with sanctioning Chinese companies

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Small countries are different.

Those 900 well paying jobs at Huawei are important. That is is the extent of Canadian leadership in 5G!

No one is going to do what Huawei is doing for Canada. That is kind of end of story. Unless Canada does not want these high tech research jobs.

That is why the white Canadian is so butt hurt over this. They want the 900 high tech jobs, but rather prefer it not being that Huawei is the provider of those jobs.

That is a small country. The strong do what they can. The weak suffer what they must. And that is the butt hurt.

voyager1 said:

Lol
Why do you want to shackle China?
Do you want China to fight the US with only one hand?

The US can get the top STEM talent from all around the world, even from China.

And you want China to fight the US, drawing talent only from inside its borders?

Sorry but this is delusional and even China's leadership understand this which is why they are emphasising international cities and giving more incentives for foreigners to study in China.

This nationalist sentiment is unworkable and if China truly wants to compete and win against the US, that means it will have to find its own way for drawing foreign talent and integrating them to the Chinese society.

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Because it is the essence of China. Losing yourself to win is losing in the end. Plus, China and the US have different advantages and styles. America has far less people per capital of resource and its people are lazy, not driven to STEM majors so its natural play would be to draw talent from all over the world with an easier lifestyle. The flaw with this strategy is that they are dependent on imported talent and imported talent is far more likely to sell out. China has 4x the population with a huge emphasis on STEM (more than the entire developed world combined), to the point where China is supersaturated. Bringing in foreign talent (by the droves as opposed to on special occasions from need) will sometimes serve to displace Chinese scientists and engineers. Chinese people trained in China are obviously more loyal on average than some foreigner to either China or the US so that is another advantage to covet over America. So basically, different countries with different demographics call for different strategies and also, China is China, not giant international bootleg USA. Just like in politics and economics, China achieves its victories by being uniquely China, not by copying America.