Chinese semiconductor industry

voyager1 · Apr 13, 2021

gadgetcool5 said:
China needs to be doing a lot more. As I mentioned before, basic research and applied research R&D must match the level of the combined alliance arrayed against it (less China's allies like Pakistan and Russia, but those are virtually negligible), PLUS what's required to catch up. In other words, a huge amount of investment.

Further, China needs to revamp the education system from the ground up to provide a lot more incentives for students to study science and technology. Like discounted tuition and fees, school-to-jobs pipelines with guaranteed income, subsidized housing, etc.

Russia has a good R&D base though. Their only problem is the lack of funding. If China could provide international English schools and gave the scholarships to the Russians that would help China tremendously.

"Brain Drain" is the game, and it is time for China to use it. I know that China uses it on students from Africa but they dont keep them, they study in China and most of them return to Africa. Thats a net loss to China, it should try to keep them in China as the ones who come on China are often the brightest minds of Africa

Hendrik_2000 · Apr 13, 2021

voyager1 said:
Russia has a good R&D base though. Their only problem is the lack of funding. If China could provide international English schools and gave the scholarships to the Russians that would help China tremendously.

"Brain Drain" is the game, and it is time for China to use it. I know that China uses it on students from Africa but they dont keep them, they study in China and most of them return to Africa. Thats a net loss to China, it should try to keep them in China as the ones who come on China are often the brightest minds of Africa

I don't agree people from africa is hard to assimilate. I don't know africa is power house when it come to STEM. I rather have China encourage graduate student from neighboring country of Japan and Korea, Overseas Chinese or even Russia, ASEAN to further their study in China by providing scholarship and easy immigration pass. they are easier to integrate! And they come from countries with high tech tradition!

horse · Apr 13, 2021

quantumlight said:
In the 21st century, a full chip embargo is a declaration of war. Instead of competing fairly the US resorts to destruction to keep others down so it can get ahead by cheating...

The semiconductor chip market is at least 5x bigger in China than America.

Look at this old chart please.

The tail wags the dog in America. The tail does not wag the dog in China.

daxue-consulting_Chinas-semiconductor-market_semiconductor-market-share-global.jpg

(next, for the next step in the way it works, is where will the talent and money flow to ... the market 1/5th the size or the market 5x times bigger, someone is fighting losing battle here)

Hendrik_2000 · Apr 13, 2021

gadgetcool5 said:
China needs to be doing a lot more. As I mentioned before, basic research and applied research R&D must match the level of the combined alliance arrayed against it (less China's allies like Pakistan and Russia, but those are virtually negligible), PLUS what's required to catch up. In other words, a huge amount of investment.

Further, China needs to revamp the education system from the ground up to provide a lot more incentives for students to study science and technology. Like discounted tuition and fees, school-to-jobs pipelines with guaranteed income, subsidized housing, etc.

Basic science research take decades to come to fruition and very expensive. China only recently developed comprehensive university and research institution maybe in the last10 years So naturally it is behind. It take ton f money to support legion of Phd with nothing to show for decades. Only now China can afford it .

China produce 8 to 9 million graduate every year and 30% of them are STEM graduate. so there is no shortage of good engineer in China. More important than university is the training they get after graduate. In US they don't provide training at all. And they were fired first when company is downturn. Nobody want to get in engineering in US. They depend on foreign student. But in Japan and Germany they provide good training for newbie engineer and employment stability that is why they attract the best student. China too provide long term employment and training!
Because China, Germany, Japan has longer term horizon than US employee are consider asset and not variable cost! they invest in their employee with training

voyager1 · Apr 13, 2021

Hendrik_2000 said:
I don't agree people from africa is hard to assimilate. I don't know africa is power house when it come to STEM. I rather have China encourage graduate student from neighboring country of Japan and Korea, ASEAN to further their study in China by providing scholarship and easy immigration pass. they are easier to integrate! And they come from countries with high tech tradition!

It isnt a powerhouse. However China gives scholarships to the smartest people there, so thats a very good benefit. Nothing wrong in getting the very smart people. Let the average people stay there and have the smartest stay in China.
I mean if China doesn't do this, the US will do it and get an advantage.

Regarding integration I dont think that it would be a huge problem. There is no reason for China to follow Europe's and US's examples. It can do its own "integration with Chinese Characteristics". It can have its own exams, cultural norms tests, etc to control citizenship.

Regarding getting people from the ASEAN, Japan, S.Korea I agree that China should offer scholarships to them as well. But keep in mind that the people on the region in general dont like China, and for the advanced countries, they disdain China (S.Korea, Japan etc)

So there is a benefit to getting Africans as these people are not exposed to the historic racism against Chinese.

Anyway, I think we agree that China need to liberalise more its educational policies towards foreign countries. From what I know, unfortunately even the Chinese T1 cities are not comfortable for English speaking people to live on

quantumlight · Apr 13, 2021

horse said:
The semiconductor chip market is at least 5x bigger in China than America.

Look at this old chart please.

The tail wags the dog in America. The tail does not wag the dog in China.

(next, for the next step in the way it works, is where will the talent and money flow to ... the market 1/5th the size or the market 5x times bigger, someone is fighting losing battle here)

But in reality its not comparing China to US directly... You must compare China to US and all vassals under US thumb...

Most of that China semiconductor consumption gets re-exported. A blanket ban means no Intel chips enter China, so Dell, Hp etc have to move their production lines out of China to India, Vietnam, Mexico... suddenly when most Western companies follow suit that seemingly impressive China share of semiconductor market collapses overnight...

manqiangrexue · Apr 13, 2021

voyager1 said:
It isnt a powerhouse. However China gives scholarships to the smartest people there, so thats a very good benefit. Nothing wrong in getting the very smart people. Let the average people stay there and have the smartest stay in China.
I mean if China doesn't do this, the US will do it and get an advantage.

Regarding integration I dont think that it would be a huge problem. There is no reason for China to follow Europe's and US's examples. It can do its own "integration with Chinese Characteristics". It can have its own exams, cultural norms tests, etc to control citizenship.

Regarding getting people from the ASEAN, Japan, S.Korea I agree that China should offer scholarships to them as well. But keep in mind that the people on the region in general dont like China, and for the advanced countries, they disdain China (S.Korea, Japan etc)

So there is a benefit to getting Africans as these people are not exposed to the historic racism against Chinese.

Anyway, I think we agree that China need to liberalise more its educational policies towards foreign countries. From what I know, unfortunately even the Chinese T1 cities are not comfortable for English speaking people to live on

The biggest feat that China can accomplish is to be the strongest country in the world while still being China. China has no intent to become a bigger USA powered by foreign talent and English speakers feeling at home in its major cities. China will retain its essence: Chinese people running a Chinese environment with a Chinese political system sitting at the top of the world. That is China's ambition.

horse · Apr 13, 2021

quantumlight said:
But in reality its not comparing China to US directly... You must compare China to US and all vassals under US thumb...

Most of that China semiconductor consumption gets re-exported. A blanket ban means no Intel chips enter China, so Dell, Hp etc have to move their production lines out of China to India, Vietnam, Mexico... suddenly when most Western companies follow suit that seemingly impressive China share of semiconductor market collapses overnight...

Yeah, exactly.

Now think ... 1) how long will it take to move out all those down stream factories in all industries that uses chips (a few months, a few years, a few decades) and ... 2) who is gonna put up the money to do that ...

Then there is even a 3) why foreign companies are in China because they want to be in the China market, for example GM sells more cars in China than anywhere else. Therefore, what the US government really is saying they expect GM to build their cars in America then export to China.

I believe it when I see it, and I never seen it. The US government can always sanction an individual company here and there, but to suggest something of this scale, only proves to the CCP that the CCP is kicking American government ass.

voyager1 · Apr 13, 2021

manqiangrexue said:
The biggest feat that China can accomplish is to be the strongest country in the world while still being China. China has no intent to become a bigger USA powered by foreign talent and English speakers feeling at home in its major cities. China will retain its essence: Chinese people running a Chinese environment with a Chinese political system sitting at the top of the world. That is China's ambition.

Lol
Why do you want to shackle China?
Do you want China to fight the US with only one hand?

The US can get the top STEM talent from all around the world, even from China.

And you want China to fight the US, drawing talent only from inside its borders?

Sorry but this is delusional and even China's leadership understand this which is why they are emphasising international cities and giving more incentives for foreigners to study in China.

This nationalist sentiment is unworkable and if China truly wants to compete and win against the US, that means it will have to find its own way for drawing foreign talent and integrating them to the Chinese society.

Xizor · Apr 13, 2021

horse said:
The semiconductor chip market is at least 5x bigger in China than America.

Look at this old chart please.

The tail wags the dog in America. The tail does not wag the dog in China.

(next, for the next step in the way it works, is where will the talent and money flow to ... the market 1/5th the size or the market 5x times bigger, someone is fighting losing battle here)

Not necessarily.
As it stands right now, it's a winner take all matter. And the winner, if it's called right Now, would be US.

And that'd mean US companies continue to extract revenue and profits from China.

But China winning means China get to dominate its own market. There is no question of penetrating US market as it would never be allowed past the gates.

Chinese semiconductor industry

voyager1

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Hendrik_2000

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horse

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Hendrik_2000

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voyager1

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quantumlight

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manqiangrexue

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horse

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voyager1

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Xizor

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