Chinese semiconductor industry

latenlazy said:

Honest to god, if we’re going to enforce the rules in this thread most participants here would probably be banned for some of the things said here, not just gadgetcool. A lot of the people arguing against gadgetcool’s position are just as obnoxious as gadgetcool him/herself. This thread is not really a thread about semiconductors, but a thread for venting nationalistic fervor using anxieties over semiconductors as the trigger.

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semiconductor has elevated into a top geopolitical issue, being used by some government as tool to choke off the livelihood of some countries or at least attempts. It's no longer a normal industry runs by industrial norms

For example second handed lithography equipments price risen 3x times recently and almost all of them going into China.

SMIC $1.2 billion purchase from ASML , all for duv equipments.thats almost 20 sets.

This is not normal industrial reactions. It's almost like fighting a war and those are strategic materials.

Gop cotton promises to completely decoupled. Urgency for actions.

I wonder when China is going to come up with a stealth fighter because they say it would take China 30 years.

Hitchhiker said:

Sino Defence Forum.

When China is obviously under threat of USA of a full spectrum war, defence is no longer about just producing hardware like j-20 or carriers and submarine.

Economy and technology and monetary warfare are undeniably raging right now. The defence of Sino is undeniably in play right now in those domains.

It is interesting that the moderators consider these threads to be "politically infected" when they are probably the most relevant threads in Sino Defence Forum.

We could perhaps make our posts politically more neutral when discussing economical and technological and monetary warfare however. And that would be a very good thing. The difficulty is that for USA to find an excuse to wage these wars they are bringing in politics as an excuse, as a smokescreen.

Trying to completely separate politics is therefore going to be difficult.

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If it is the MOST relevant one or not may be open for debate, but I won't participate on it ... anyway, as long as certain posts are not reported, I don't read these threads.

As such, please use this button:

@gadgetcool5 @daifo @manqiangrexue @HybridHypothesis @Arcgem

Guys ... stop this: I now deleted almost 4 pages of "off topic" BS, rants, political provocations and re-provocations, discussion on ethnics, political will and aims, friends and foes and chest-thumping.

What i however really don't like are posts calling others a troll or bolt comments like "we don't want you her", "leave this discussion" and "You start with nonsense" including open calls to a moderator to ban a certain member! This is strictly against the rules.

As such all of you, take this as a warning: The next one who accuses another one of being a troll or advocated a ban of another member will be banned permanently.

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Xsizor said:

Is that feasible? I'm not sold that this is the case.
Does TSMC have some cloning technology to create clones of engineers to be spread over to a foreign plant double the size?

I think they'll be majority American recruits with TSMC engineers as trainers and educators /leaders.

Ofcourse, TSMC is the strongest card Taiwan has regarding industry against US and China. This means tearing that card.

Why can't US do it alone? Why would they need TSMC in the first place? So that means they are looking for the process know how. The Intel directed know how seem to have lagged a bit. But introducing TSMC know how wont be of significant help.

There is also the risk of both US and Taiwanese edge getting eroded and sacrificed on the altar of geopolitical hostility. Forcing top engineers to shuttle between continents isn't good.

I read somewhere that it's always a handful of engineers /scientists who does the magic. Sharing them will affect productivity and results.

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If it's 6 actual FABs, and each fab costs $12 billion for 5nm (and let's say $18 billion for 3nm), then the total cost is going to be $72-108 billion.

Guess how much of that will be subsidies from the US taxpayer? At that point, Congress is going to veto the six Fab plan, and spend even a fraction of that money on something actually useful.

Skywatcher said:

If it's 6 actual FABs, and each fab costs $12 billion for 5nm (and let's say $18 billion for 3nm), then the total cost is going to be $72-108 billion.

Guess how much of that will be subsidies from the US taxpayer? At that point, Congress is going to veto the six Fab plan, and spend even a fraction of that money on something actually useful.

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No. Congress won't Veto it. 108 Billion is peanuts for US (especially if it's for National Security and Military). The congress would pass it once they are highlighted of the China angle.

Xsizor said:

No. Congress won't Veto it. 108 Billion is peanuts for US (especially if it's for National Security and Military). The congress would pass it once they are highlighted of the China angle.

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The single $12 billion fab itself is more than enough for any national security needs.

The reason why this thread is super interesting to me:

1) China can survive the US-EU Arms Embargo of 1989 and eventually achieve indigenization of key components such as radars, AESA, stealth jets, engine tech, submarines, Beidou GPS, etc...
2) The world-wide "Automotive Semiconductor Shortages" exposes the limits of US sanctions without hurting itself, therefore full de-coupling with Chinese semiconductors is highly unrealistic without significant self-harm to US corporations.
3) Moore's law is slowly drastically as physical limits near 1nm, so catching-up is easier for China.
4) The CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES is getting involved in EUV, which is basically China's best and brightest minds, combined with State (China gov't) and Private (Huawei, Xiaomi, etc...) resources. It's like going to WAR. Fking interesting.
5) This is the type of basic physical science research that CHINESE physicists excel at.
6) US is hobbled by domestic political partisanship and bickering, so effective strategy against China is pretty haphazard and inefficient.

The probably is favorable to China achieving meaningful progress in semiconductor independence in the medium term, it's like a LONG-MARCH/MANHATTAN PROJECT all rolled into one.

ALL these reasons, makes this thread super super interesting, I read the past 200 pages, but the last few pages went to absolute shit. Thank goodness for mod intervention, keep the anti-US rhetoric in the Biden thread. This should be purely progress oriented. We can shit on US in the Biden thread, but keep that in a minimum here.

China should figure out how to trigger Yellow Stone. That'll ensure security for decades to come.