No. Most advanced DUV Lithographer that can do 5nm.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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hi @foofy good day,
do you think ASML will sell its latest NXT2000i DUVL? since the ban cover 10nm below.I think yes. Previously ASML said all DUV machines are not in embargo list. More importantly, China is the only customer for their most advanced DUV machinehi @foofy good day,
Some people appear upset with SMIC for its deal with ASML; I doubt there is anything to worry about.
Early articles in the press incorrectly implied that the $1.2 billion going from SMIC to ASML is new money. That is not true.
The Reuters article now has the title . The revised article goes on to explain
In other words, SMIC has already spent the $1.2 billion; the new deal merely extends the volume purchase agreement for another year. I don't know how much new money (and therefore new equipment) is involved.
Early articles in the press incorrectly implied that the $1.2 billion going from SMIC to ASML is new money. That is not true.
The Reuters article now has the title . The revised article goes on to explain
In other words, SMIC has already spent the $1.2 billion; the new deal merely extends the volume purchase agreement for another year. I don't know how much new money (and therefore new equipment) is involved.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Well, $1.2 B is nothing in a grand scale, I wouldn't too worried of it
@antiterror13 @Nutrient @foofy It said volume sale, so maybe including the compensation for not delivering the already paid EUVL
I feel like US can only delay Chinese development temporarily, and light a fire under China's ass to incentivize self-improvement. So long as Chinese industry survives, Chinese political willpower and resources is firm, Chinese nation will emerge more resilient, robust, and stronger in the medium to long term.
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US/West had decades to help develop Africa but the true reason why they never bothered wasn't because they didn't get around to it (they always managed to get around to wars just fine) but rather it was by design. By keeping Africa poor they were saving Africa up as a cheap resource that they can mine and strip for materials later on... by opening up with China the intent was to become America's cheap labor pool... so low cost resources from Africa, coupled with cheap labor from China, meant US companies made off like a bandit and then sold these products to the rest of the world at high profit margins whilst turning around and doing quantitative easing on the petrodollar to double dip by taxing everyone once more post-transaction for the privelege of using the US dollar... this arrangement was going to last forever and it was "the end of history", as it were...
Until it didn't, and then it wasn't...
They didn't count on China no longer being content on just middle income, and China wanting to ascend the tech ladder and jump up in the value chain... They didn't count on China doing BRI and connecting the Eurasia landmass and helping Africa develop and raise their living standards thereby spoiling US plans to preserve Africa as their cheap resource pool... so now they were about to lose both their cheap resource pool and their cheap labor and to make things worse China was going to directly compete with the US on the world stage and eat into what had traditionally been strictly US dominance and US hegemony...
As a thought experiment, I tried to play out what America's Plan Z would be, the ultimately play, so to speak. I still think it will be a complete blanket ban of all chips and all semiconductor equipment and their supply chains to all of China, basically a 100% embargo across the board... This will have many ramifications, for one it will mean instantly it will disrupt and bring to a standstill almost the entire Chinese manufacturing and supply chain overnight especially as it relates to exports to West. You cannot make any product these days without a computer chip and almost all products these days have a chip inside them or more.... By this one action alone, if it can be strictly enforced, America will be able to grind the Chinese economy to a halt... a lot more so than say kicking China out of SWIFT. There are workarounds to the US dollar, money is just a social construct, but there are no workarounds to lack of computer chips in the 21st century, you either can fab chips or you cannot. There is no middle ground. China simply won't be able to make anything, certaintly not anything the West needs. For example Apple will be forced to shutdown, Telsa shutdown, Dell shutdown, Lenovo shutdown, almost all companies in China would grind to a halt... This one action effectively forces not only US but indeed much of the entire world to forcibly do a full decoupling with China....
This will cause severe disruption to the entire global economy no doubt. This is not a question. But, I believe when it comes to survival of US hegemony, this is the price America is willing to inflict to ensure that China goes down for good and never comes back up again...
As for enforcement, it is quite easy... Intel, AMD, Nvidia, QualComm, etc these are all bona fide US companies. America has full control over them and one EO is all it takes for full compliance, these companies don't have a choice. Tiawan would be onboard, so would Dutch/netherlands and ASML etc and Cymer is US company so ASML is just an intgreater like Lenovo is a systems integrator so ASLM don't havae a choice even if they wanted to help out China which they dont
Samsung is majority US owned, plus US has military bases in Korea, Japan, and is building a missile defence system on the first island China to surrounded China...
The point is, in the past the US used its military might to hold the worlds oil hostage ("protection" of OPEC) in order to sustain the petrodollar arrangement, well semiconductors/chips are the new digital OPEC in this 21st century and in the 4th industrial revolution being without chips is as bad as being without oil... and America controls the sanctions power and the critical chokeholds to this technology. Frankly, the US will leverage its military might to invade/ attack/overthrow any nation that doesn't play along... it doesn't have to go around every 150+ countries in the world to force them to stop all trade with China, all it has to do is completely cut China off from high end semiconductors/chips and without this the world will have no choice but to look beyond China and to other alternatives... just like TSMC cutting Huawei off meant people have no choice but to buy Apple and Samsung phones now... likewise, by US cutting China off chips it will as a natural consequence have the same effect as if US forced all countries to stop all trade with China.. the only difference is this is more surgical and asymettric, there are only a handful of countries and companies that have semiconductor fabrication abilities, so the US only has to focus on enforcenment of these countries and these companies, which makes the job much easier and much more doable...
This is America's best chance to end China, of all the scenarios this seems most strategic and most asymettric and the strategy that seems most able to succeed. Which is why I believe the US will do this within the next year or two at the most.
In such a scenario where US initiates a total semiconductor cut off to China it would likely be coordinated as you stated. I remember Taiwanese defense experts talking about having the capability to strike at Pearl River delta, Shanghai and Nanjing where most of Chinas advanced semiconductor manufacturing occurs. They don't have the capability to harm the broader industrial base but there is a likely chance that in a last ditch effort where trading Taiwan for strangling China's semiconductor supply is deemed worthwhile, Taiwan will launch precise attacks on these plants. Other nations won't take the blame for the attack.
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