Chinese semiconductor industry

Nutrient said:

A total chip embargo will disrupt China's technology companies. But a total embargo won't paralyze the companies, for two reasons:

(1) The companies have been stockpiling chips. A global embargo can't possibly happen instantly, so Chinese companies will have time to stockpile even more.

(2) China's own semiconductor manufacturers are gearing up. By the time the stockpiles start to dwindle, domestic sources for nearly all chips will be available.

In any case, AI dominance is more about having vast amounts of data for training the neural networks. China will have more of this data, due to huge population and better electronic connectivity.

So probably the US will lose if it attempts a global chip embargo. The Americans will lose not only in AI, but also in the lucrative semiconductor market, as domestic Chinese manufacturers capture the vast majority of it.

By the way, TSMC is likely to lose big time too, especially after demonstrating that they are merely a US stooge. So if the mainland chooses to take over Taiwan, TSMC will be so shrunken as to be nearly irrelevant.

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Yes that is right. The US will be the biggest loser if there is a Chip and Semiconductor Embargo on China.
Local Chinese companies will eventually take over the market share of US and foreign companies in Chips and Semiconductor equipment.
China is still the largest market for Semiconductors worldwide and this move by the US will hit US Companies and shrink their R&D Budgets.
The US forcing Japan and EU to toe the line is not going to work as at the end of the day it is profits and jobs on the line.
China will also retaliate by putting these foreign companies on the entity list which will result in big fines and a ban.
Looks like Trumps low IQ Advisors have even influenced Biden.
It is crucial for China to develop 2 core technologies which is EUV Lithography and Commercial High Bypass Turbofans.
Once these 2 crucial tech is developed, China is pretty much independant technologically.
Out of topic, but a way for China to defend itself from a Genocidal US Empire is to increase its number of nuclear missiles and probably forge a military Alliance with Russia. The China Russia nuclear missile capability will being peace.
But of course the US will still cause carnage to the rest of the World, rest assured.

Oldschool said:

China high tech won't be in western market. Not allowed I can bet you on that.

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Remember that China has a population of 1400million.
That is a significantly larger that the entire Western World.

So theoretically China can build a technology stack which is:
1. entirely separate AND 2. world-leading

This would serve a Chinese domestic market which could become larger than the Western World.

Given lower costs in China PLUS a larger scale of production, it's likely that Chinese technology would be better and cheaper.
And therefore gain global market share at the expense of the West.

Oldschool said:

So, your logic is China has 20x the population of US, it will have 20X the economy of US?

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It's in the realm of possibility.
There are lots of countries as productive and prosperous as the USA, but most of them have a much smaller population.

WTAN said:

Yes that is right. The US will be the biggest loser if there is a Chip and Semiconductor Embargo on China.
Local Chinese companies will eventually take over the market share of US and foreign companies in Chips and Semiconductor equipment.
China is still the largest market for Semiconductors worldwide and this move by the US will hit US Companies and shrink their R&D Budgets.
The US forcing Japan and EU to toe the line is not going to work as at the end of the day it is profits and jobs on the line.
China will also retaliate by putting these foreign companies on the entity list which will result in big fines and a ban.
Looks like Trumps low IQ Advisors have even influenced Biden.
It is crucial for China to develop 2 core technologies which is EUV Lithography and Commercial High Bypass Turbofans.
Once these 2 crucial tech is developed, China is pretty much independant technologically.
Out of topic, but a way for China to defend itself from a Genocidal US Empire is to increase its number of nuclear missiles and probably forge a military Alliance with Russia. The China Russia nuclear missile capability will being peace.
But of course the US will still cause carnage to the rest of the World, rest assured.

Click to expand...

Turbofan is a nice to have, Chips are must have. China can survive fine without any airplanes, same not true about cpu

quantumlight said:

Turbofan is a nice to have, Chips are must have. China can survive fine without any airplanes, same not true about cpu

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Stockpile used everything.

Have 100 billion GPUs/CPUs on hand just in case XD

AndrewS said:

Remember that China has a population of 1400million.
That is a significantly larger that the entire Western World.

So theoretically China can build a technology stack which is:
1. entirely separate AND 2. world-leading

This would serve a Chinese domestic market which could become larger than the Western World.

Given lower costs in China PLUS a larger scale of production, it's likely that Chinese technology would be better and cheaper.
And therefore gain global market share at the expense of the West.



It's in the realm of possibility.
There are lots of countries as productive and prosperous as the USA, but most of them have a much smaller population.

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I would say self sufficient at technology achievable. Better than the west in tech, that's a long shot. Current is a great sample, China's self suffiency at 28nm stacking against west EUV 5nm.
That's the card China has but it still can managed
You have to look at realistic example to make projections. Projection cannot be made based on fantasy

Common sense says the earth only have limited resources, if China has 20x population over US, it won't have 20x economy

AndrewS said:

Remember that China has a population of 1400million.
That is a significantly larger that the entire Western World.

So theoretically China can build a technology stack which is:
1. entirely separate AND 2. world-leading

This would serve a Chinese domestic market which could become larger than the Western World.

Given lower costs in China PLUS a larger scale of production, it's likely that Chinese technology would be better and cheaper.
And therefore gain global market share at the expense of the West.



It's in the realm of possibility.
There are lots of countries as productive and prosperous as the USA, but most of them have a much smaller population.

Click to expand...

Provided that China keeps up its population size yes.

But if China's population falls to 750 million and India + the Western world join together in an alliance while China doesn't ally with anyone, the combined population of the latter could be ~2 billion and dwarf China's. Hence I advocate China to set a population target/floor and work to ally itself with ASEAN, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and other willing states to cooperate on technology and unify markets.

quantumlight said:

Turbofan is a nice to have, Chips are must have. China can survive fine without any airplanes, same not true about cpu

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This is the Chicken and Egg analogy.
Before the egg (Chips and CPU) can come, you must first have the Chicken (DUVL & EUVL)
Thats why China must develop the EUV Lithograph.
Once this is developed Chinese companies like Hisilicon and Tsinghua will supply the products.
Companies like SMIC have been restricted in the past due to the lack of Lithographs.

gadgetcool5 said:

Provided that China keeps up its population size yes.

But if China's population falls to 750 million and India + the Western world join together in an alliance while China doesn't ally with anyone, the combined population of the latter could be ~2 billion and dwarf China's. Hence I advocate China to set a population target/floor and work to ally itself with ASEAN, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and other willing states to cooperate on technology and unify markets.

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And India will drag the GDP/capita of that alliance down to $1000, so they all starving.

I'm not going to believe that bull about an aging population. China has more "young" people than the US. I don't know what the numbers are but I've read that China has far more people in the age range that can fight a war than the entire US population. Those people usually are in the same age range when they talk about young vs old. So if the US has less people of that age, why isn't the US suffering worse? Or how about India where they say they have an advantage over China because they have more young people. You have to find jobs for those young people. Just because they have more young people, it doesn't mean every one of them will have a job and certainly not a high paying one. How about the costs to a government of taking care of young people living in poverty conditions? I've read the idea how they claim an aging population hurts China is because of all the old people China will have to take care of. In the US they would suffer from an aging population because they already have a mature social security system in place. So more people who reach retirement age, the more money it cost. In China its social security is new. Before that it was family that took care of the old. That's also cultural. In the US, they usually leave their parents in an old folks home if they can't take of themselves and the cost goes to the government. Only young people can make chips? What's considered young? I've seen an old Chinese woman carry a load on her back more than I ever seen an American worker carry. Maybe because American workers have machines helping them carry a load so they don't strain themselves? What about the only reason why the US has a young population is because of immigrants. Are those immigrants going to get high paying jobs when they'll most likely be working in blue collar jobs and not white collar? The same people who came up with these macro forecasts and predictions on aging populations affect on the country are based on Western culture. Take away immigrants and the US is in the same demographic trouble. Just like how Apple's iPhone when they first had facial recognition couldn't tell the difference between members of the same race because they paid more attention to algorithms for white features. Do you think they even bother to know the differences when it all based on them? Is that why they say being a China "expert" in the West is an oxymoron? Most people who claim to be an expert on China get it wrong. Just like those Westerners that predicted with wealth comes reform in China. Now they're saying all those prediction were wrong and now they want to punish China because they got it wrong like they were promises China made to the West and broke. So when they get this wrong are they going want punish China? You think these people are of sound mind to even make these kinds of assessments?

gadgetcool5 said:

Provided that China keeps up its population size yes.

But if China's population falls to 750 million and India + the Western world join together in an alliance while China doesn't ally with anyone, the combined population of the latter could be ~2 billion and dwarf China's. Hence I advocate China to set a population target/floor and work to ally itself with ASEAN, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and other willing states to cooperate on technology and unify markets.

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I don't expect China's population to fall that far.

But also remember that India expects to become bigger than the USA as well.
If you run the numbers, that should be possible even if India falls into the middle-income trap.

However, India certainly won't accept a junior position in any alliance.