Chinese semiconductor industry

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Oldschool

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Keep in mind , China population is aging very fast. It will be a big factor.
3 to 4 X factor more than US after so many years is not sustainable. It sounds like a gimmick or trick to fool China to chase a forever moving goal post. Why stop at 4X, why not 5X, 6X...etc. There are just only so many resources on earth!
Achieved 2x already a very hard goal...even if achieved it would plateaued.
It would be historic if China surpass US GDP. 2X is already a fantasy goal in my POV
But you know what, current CPC session already ditched the talk of GDP. It's all about tech independence. They don't care about surpassing US GDP wise maybe unification of Taiwan is a bigger goal than GDP under current atmosphere.nonattainable.
They focus on food security, tech independence, electric car so country can hedge away from depending on foreign oil.

To me, seems likwthey are digging up defensive posture in the trench preparing for conflict. Again, they don't care about GDP anymore.none of their tech products are going into western market. They know it.

They are fighting for survival. US lead cold war to overthrow CPC. It's all about survival..not GDP.
 
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Nutrient

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quantumlight said:
The outlook is not too good for China, because America knows its hegemony is now on the line, so it will suffer the sacrifices needed to do whatever it takes. A total chip ban and semiconductor supply chain embargo will paralyse China tech industry long enough for America to achieve AI dominance first
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A total chip embargo will disrupt China's technology companies. But a total embargo won't paralyze the companies, for two reasons:

(1) The companies have been stockpiling chips. A global embargo can't possibly happen instantly, so Chinese companies will have time to stockpile even more.

(2) China's own semiconductor manufacturers are gearing up. By the time the stockpiles start to dwindle, domestic sources for nearly all chips will be available.

In any case, AI dominance is more about having vast amounts of data for training the neural networks. China will have more of this data, due to huge population and better electronic connectivity.

So probably the US will lose if it attempts a global chip embargo. The Americans will lose not only in AI, but also in the lucrative semiconductor market, as domestic Chinese manufacturers capture the vast majority of it.

By the way, TSMC is likely to lose big time too, especially after demonstrating that they are merely a US stooge. So if the mainland chooses to take over Taiwan, TSMC will be so shrunken as to be nearly irrelevant.
 
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Oldschool

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quantumlight said:
The new Long March... not just to overthrow CPC but to genocide all 1.4 billion Chinese

Spoke with a dude on forum this morning some US army person at DC/pentagon worked with Pottinger etc he told me the US plan is to go for the kill... as in destroy entire Chinese civilization ender not just tech sector
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They tend use extreme scare tactics.
But when time for real actions, they tend to act cautiously. Mind game they are playing.
 
daifo

daifo

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ILikeChina said:
The most important thing next to indepence in semiconductors industry is to have a big, credible nuclear deterrence. The USA must know it that going with preemptive strike, China is going to melt all American cities. 300 nukes is not enough for this task.
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I read somewhere (maybe scmp) that China was building more land based icbm silo to hopefully to provide a launch-on-warning deterrent.
 
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AndrewS

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Oldschool said:
It would be historic if China surpass US GDP. 2X is already a fantasy goal in my POV
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And this is exactly the thinking I'm talking about.
Chinese GDP growing to [2x the size of the USA] is not a fantasy.

Given that China has 4x the population and if China merely matches the US - that implies China could have an economy 4x larger.

And if we have a high-tech China, then why wouldn't the China be able to achieve this?
Bear in mind the experience of the other East Asian Tigers like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, HK, Singapore
They have all escaped the middle income trap.
And they share many deep similarities to China, which includes the trajectory of R&D Spending.
 
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Oldschool

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ILikeChina said:
The most important thing next to indepence in semiconductors industry is to have a big, credible nuclear deterrence. The USA must know it that going with preemptive strike, China is going to melt all American cities. 300 nukes is not enough for this task.
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This is off topic, so I made it quick, have you consider their unground facilities under mountain range stocking alot of equipments and materials. If main land got striked. They will turn on those manufacturing facilities to crank out alot more the missiles and warheads.
Knowing the Chinese culture, they like to save stuffs (money , food, materials)for emergency, I think thats a very possible scenario. Vast manufacturing facilities and materials underground.
And in Chinese culture tend they only tend to show a fraction of what they potential got. Don't be fooled by the 300.
It won't be an end game when mainland got striked. Don't bank on that It's in fact just starting.
 
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Oldschool

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AndrewS said:
And this is exactly the thinking I'm talking about.
Chinese GDP growing to [2x the size of the USA] is not a fantasy.

Given that China has 4x the population and if China merely matches the US - that implies China could have an economy 4x larger.

And if we have a high-tech China, then why wouldn't the China be able to achieve this?
Bear in mind the experience of the other East Asian Tigers like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, HK, Singapore
They have all escaped the middle income trap.
And they share many deep similarities to China, which includes the trajectory of R&D Spending.
Click to expand...
China high tech won't be in western market. Not allowed I can bet you on that.

So, your logic is China has 20x the population of US, it will have 20X the economy of US?

So all China has to do is just to make babies?
 
daifo

daifo

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quantumlight said:
The new Long March... not just to overthrow CPC but to genocide all 1.4 billion Chinese

Spoke with a dude on forum this morning some US army person at DC/pentagon worked with Pottinger etc he told me the US plan is to go for the kill... as in destroy entire Chinese civilization ender not just tech sector
Click to expand...

The main problem is that the "old rich /powerful white people" are having a tough time accepting that western/anglo whites which are 10% of the world population should not control the world economy, religion, culture etc. IMO, the one thing China can do to deter western dominance is similpy encourage every culture to wear their native clothing, it can start out by getting its own population wearing han-fu or local custom clothing as daily clothing.
 
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