Are they willing to die on behalf of the US?
You can already see EU pushing back on the anti china alliance thing.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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You can already see EU pushing back on the anti china alliance thing.
The US isn't exactly "stable". If you went by the slim margins on the electorial college votes in the battle ground states, trump actually only lost by the 10-50 thousand of human votes.
@gelgoog and forced the Russian to develop an alternative themselves....LOL defeating the purpose of the ban, a double whammy for Japan, the US had nothing to loses and win big time hehehhe, You see the pattern, those sanction are impose at the expenses of her allies.
That is simply NOT true. As I said in an earlier comment, and as you clearly ignored, Chinese companies will not be paralyzed. (1) They have stockpiles. (2) Domestic Chinese semiconductor manufacturers will produce nearly all the necessary chips.
Are you Taiwanese, hoping for mainland China to lose?
In fact, if a global chip embargo happens, the US will lose, not the PRC. The semiconductor market in mainland China is already larger than all the West, and will probably be far larger than it is now. Obviously, if the West refuses to sell its chips to China, local Chinese chipmakers will prosper greatly. The Chinese companies, sustained by the largest semiconductor market in the world, will be far stronger than their Western counterparts. Hence the US will lose.
You assume that China won't be able to make semiconductor chips. That is a very bad assumption.
@Nutrient The US intend to help Apple and other US tech company by crippling their competitors, if this is there strategy then those US company will fail cause instead of innovating they seek gov't help, we see this in Intel. Now I know the reason why Mr Ren of Huawei don't want to go public, if he does , his company will be gobbled up by the Americans.
Let me give you one example, Apple A5 chip fab by Tsmc then shipped to China to assemble by Foxxconn. So in an all out blanket chip embargo scenario, Apple is barred by US gov from sending its A5 chips to China... without this critical component, Apple cannot make its ipad and iphone inside of China. Foxxconn will have to pull out and assemble elsewhere... As a consequence of that, when Apple pulls out it also kills off the entire ecosystem that it supported in China and all the supply chain around that.
Repeat this for Dell, Hp, Lenovo etc , for example Dell cant make a laptop in China if its not allowed to ship the intel processors into China...
Are you telling me China can fab 5nm, 7nm? or that China can produce Intel chips on its own?
So what Dell will redisegn its laptops to use SMIC 45nm? I think not, it will just move its factory to India or Vietnam or whatever.
Overnight this will destroy China's export economy, and how long do you think it will take Xi Dual Circulation to ramp up? By that time China economy will have already crashed and there will be nothing left to bootstrap to circulation in the first place.
In a postPeak world the rate limiting factor is resource extraction/consumption, if US can take out China from the global economy picture then resource inputs become a lot cheaper, it can offset for the pain of uprooting and rerouting global supply chains around China and to cheaper places like India, Vietnam all the while AI automation ramp up means there will be much fewer sweatshops needed to be ramped up to begin with since its all robots now...
This saves US hegemony and puts the ball in China's court where the only recourse is for China to initiate a hot war (retake TW, etc etc) which would once more play to US advantage since China cannot defeat US kinetically if its China offense vs US defence in any hot war situation.. If China cant go to war, and it cant fab the chips, what are its options really? By the time it figured out 5nm the world would have moved on and China would have permanently lose vast majority of its export business as foreign companies would have nearly all pulled out by then
Short of nuclear war, this IS the worst case for China... America CAN try this scorched earth strategy. China MUST be prepared.
I am mainland not Tiawan... Im voicing my concerns because I grew up in US I know how US gov thinks, if I was US gov this would be what I would do
One fallback model of U.S. supremacy is to plunge the rest of the world back into the dark ages through hybrid warfare—while the U.S. controls the key systems of communication, information, surveillance, finance, rent extraction, along with the corridors of maritime transport. Chips are the new oil and semiconductor supply chain the digital OPEC.
This chip embargo is the best hail mary they got and the US will not pass up thd chance to use this ultimate card
China should never depend on its enemy showing mercy, this is the most severe move US can make to collapse China
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coolieno99
Junior Member
Currently there are 120 MILLION unemployed, jobless Indians. Each MONTH, 1 MILLION young Indians enter the job market seeking employment when there is none. I am not a religious person , but thank God for creating the formidable Himalayan mountain range to serve as a natural barrier between China and India.
China has Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and so on. These will keep the Chinese smartphone ecosystem healthy. You forget that China's internal market is larger than the US's.
China has its own laptop manufacturers. The assembly work for Dell, HP, etc. does not pay China that much. Domestic manufacturers, on the other hand, will prosper; and when they do, they will contribute far more to China's economy.
US multinationals might consider moving their assembly work to other countries, but the ecosystems are in China, not in those other countries. Therefore you are only proving that US companies will feel the pain of an embargo of all microchips, not China.
In a few years, yes. China will certainly make 5 nm chips sooner than US companies can build entire ecosystems in other countries.
Intel-compatible chips, yes. The is an 8-core CPU compatible with Intel. It uses a 16 nm process, so presumably SMIC's 14 nm process will be more than good enough to manufacture the chip. An 8-core CPU will be more than good enough for 95% of the global PC market.
Produce real Intel-branded chips, no. However, if Intel-based computers can't be manufacturered in China, where can they be manufactured? Especially at large enough scale to sustain the American company?
Nonsense. Some sectors might be hurt, but most of China's exports don't need cutting-edge chips. China's own semiconductor manufacturers are already able to make the lower tech chips, and will quickly move up the tech chain. Hence the pain, if any, will be temporary for China.
The pain won't be temporary for the US, if it loses the $200-300 billion per year semiconductor market in China. Imposing a total chip embargo will guarantee the permanent US loss of that market.
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"In a few years, yes. China will certainly make 5 nm chips sooner than US companies can build entire ecosystems in other countries."
LOL no. Have you learned nothing from this thread? Right now all nodes require US parts for copper wiring and low-k materials. Even for 90 nm it will take five years to build a production line completely from scratch without US parts. Fortunately the US is so far ahead it is not even worried about China manufacturing at 90 nm so that likely won't be sanctioned.
For packaging and assembly at 28 nm, it will likely be this year or next year. But for the core component of 28 nm, it will likely not be for 3-5 years. This is .
"An 8-core CPU will be more than good enough for 95% of the global PC market."
So you are telling me that global consumers will buy a laptop with a CPU with worse performance when there are better ones on the market? Why? Remember most consumers do not live in the US *or* China. They don't care about politics, they just want the best product. Simply being "good enough" does not mean consumers will buy your product.
LOL no. Have you learned nothing from this thread? Right now all nodes require US parts for copper wiring and low-k materials. Even for 90 nm it will take five years to build a production line completely from scratch without US parts. Fortunately the US is so far ahead it is not even worried about China manufacturing at 90 nm so that likely won't be sanctioned.
For packaging and assembly at 28 nm, it will likely be this year or next year. But for the core component of 28 nm, it will likely not be for 3-5 years. This is .
"An 8-core CPU will be more than good enough for 95% of the global PC market."
So you are telling me that global consumers will buy a laptop with a CPU with worse performance when there are better ones on the market? Why? Remember most consumers do not live in the US *or* China. They don't care about politics, they just want the best product. Simply being "good enough" does not mean consumers will buy your product.
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Did some research and there 3 lithography groups in China. They don't overlapped
Smee logic duv
Cetc is nonlogic duv
Changchun optics and associated commercial group euv.
Looking at back history, Soviet competed with US with vaccum tube against IC for 40 years before fell apart.
If China commercialized euv it won't matter if west set up a blockade
China already has an EUV prototype.
Smee logic duv
Cetc is nonlogic duv
Changchun optics and associated commercial group euv.
Looking at back history, Soviet competed with US with vaccum tube against IC for 40 years before fell apart.
If China commercialized euv it won't matter if west set up a blockade
China already has an EUV prototype.
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