Dylan Patel says that CXMT will have 7 billion dollars of equipment spending in 2024, with 3.8 billion of that going to American tool firms including $1.8 billion goes to AMAT.
I sure hope not. I doubt it makes much sense to buy brand new outdated equipment at hefty prices to make DRAM that is sold for peanuts. Because it isn't high density or high speed.
He also expect CXMT HBM 3E for AI to ship in mid-2025
Never heard of this. Sounds like wild speculation on his part. Good if true.
"Memory is one the most important scaling vectors for achieving civilization redefining AI technologies, and China is investing heavily in leapfrogging the rest of the world with these technologies and has already started implementing LLMs for propaganda / electoral subversion as well as within the PLA."
More CeeCeePee ranting nonsense on his part I see.
"CXMT also surprised us by candidly announcing their violation U.S. export controls at IEDM in San Francisco. CXMT presented their Gate-All-Around Vertical Transistors manufactured at the 18nm half pitch."
The sanctions are on sales of tools with any US components in them to make GAA transistors or 18nm or better DRAM to China. Of course in practice if CXMT proves itself able to do this then the US might just put the whole company on the blacklist instead. Pretty much a badge of honor really. It means their product is good enough to get sanctioned. When the US sanctioned YMTC I bought the largest most expensive stick of ZHITAI brand SSD I could find.
"CXMT vertical channel transistors at 18nm pitch, below export control limits"
Surprise, surprise. The tools they already had at CXMT could already make things at that resolution. You know, CXMT even went to ASML to negotiate the purchase of EUV machines at one point. But that fell through.
"CXMT violated two different portions of the US export controls. US tools can not be shipped to firms that fabricate 18nm half pitch DRAM devices. US tools cannot be shipped to firms that fabricate gate all around transistors."
Nope. They can't be exported to China. As in the country. He can't even get this right. Also AFAIK the restrictions on GAA transistors are for EDA software not physical tools.
"With the way the law is written, American tool makers such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Onto can now no longer ship tools to the facility at which CXMT fabricated these devices."
That isn't what the law says I think. See above. Of course what the law says and what US regulators think isn't necessarily the same thing. And if CXMT does make such devices they might just end up in the blacklist.
"Our wafer fabrication equipment model and supply chain sources point to CXMT having 7 billion dollars of equipment spending for DRAM production next year, with 3.8 billion of that going to American tool firms and Applied Materials as the largest contributor at $1.8 billion of shipments to CXMT in 2024. This spend is higher than Micron for DRAM because of the recent $5B injection into CXMT’s government backed joint venture, Changxin Xinqiao, from federal and local governments."
I sure hope not. I sure hope they won't be sending billions to these bozos who can just pull parts and support whenever they want.
You know what, China should demand these companies setup an insurance where they have to pay the money for the tools back in case they pull these kinds of stunts. Since these US companies don't even have proper assets in China, they should just deposit, say, like 50% of the machine value in a bank account in China somewhere. And the money would be returned to these US companies, say, in like 10 years if these machines operate normally and they provide proper support. If this makes US machines more expensive to buy in China, then great, hopefully no one will be stupid enough to buy them anymore. Even better, these US companies should be forced to lease, not simply sell machines to China anymore. With option to buy them outright for the residual value. And if these US companies stop supporting those tools during the lease period, then China should just disassemble these machines and return the pieces to them in lots of tiny little boxes.