Chinese semiconductor industry

ansy1968 said:

Why not NXT 2000i? because the Chinese had an analogous equipment in SSA800A.

In 1 to 2 years they will unblock the restriction as the Chinese will introduced a comparable equipment in the form of the Mythical SSA900.

So whose the loser from all of this?

Well I know it won't be the Chinese, as the restriction will only spur their development with vigor. You can sense the calmness and confidence as they already anticipate their opponent moves. (I already sense and eagerly awaits that SMEE will be given the authority to official announce the launching of SSA800A).

The Dutch? in the short term NO ( 3 years) BUT in the medium and long term a definitely YES.

And The American? all their Kung FU moves score a big "L" so nothing is new.

Click to expand...

ASML and Dutch government played their cards at the best they could, delaying for almost one year the inevitable ban.

One can say they could have resisted more, but let's see what happened. Two months ago US abruptly changed to 0% (zero!) the de minimis rule for lithographic machines (and only for those machines!), it means ASML cannot sell DUVi in China even if they have a single bolt designed with a US CAD software, practically speaking this is a full unilateral ban, a true example of a blatant bully action. If US arrived at that point, is because Ducth government and ASML succeed in watering down and prolong the discussion for a full year until US, out of rage and frustration, abruptly banned it altogether. Biden already "summoned" the Ducth prime minister in January 2022 and made him promise to stop licensing ASML: this happened only one year and many tens of machines later.

This absurd 0% de minimis rule change in hindsight is a good point for ASML, they can say "look we did all that we could"...unfortunately it will not be enough.

First consideration is that ASML is not a US company, so US has zero problems to throw ASML under the bus. Second consideration is that all other SME tools have been already succesfully localized for 28nm and currently they are been localized for more advanced nodes. So if US wants to slow down China (and they strongly want it!), their only remaining weapon is banning ASML altogheter, the Japanese will follow swift, they seem eager to obey, even if they have tools 100% withouth US technology. But in their case it does not matter, they are just happy to obey.

So I foresee that ASML will be banned more and more, until it will banned altogheter.

In the positive scenario this will require still some more years and will be a gradual process, in the worst case scenario US will force ASML to stop also spare parts service and mainteinance for the current 1400+(!) installed base: this would be really bad.

european_guy said:

ASML and Dutch government played their cards at the best they could, delaying for almost one year the inevitable ban.

One can say they could have resisted more, but let's see what happened. Two months ago US abruptly changed to 0% (zero!) the de minimis rule for lithographic machines (and only for those machines!), it means ASML cannot sell DUVi in China even if they have a single bolt designed with a US CAD software, practically speaking this is a full unilateral ban, a true example of a blatant bully action. If US arrived at that point, is because Ducth government and ASML succeed in watering down and prolong the discussion for a full year until US, out of rage and frustration, abruptly banned it altogether. Biden already "summoned" the Ducth prime minister in January 2022 and made him promise to stop licensing ASML: this happened only one year and many tens of machines later.

This absurd 0% de minimis rule change in hindsight is a good point for ASML, they can say "look we did all that we could"...unfortunately it will not be enough.

First consideration is that ASML is not a US company, so US has zero problems to throw ASML under the bus. Second consideration is that all other SME tools have been already succesfully localized for 28nm and currently they are been localized for more advanced nodes. So if US wants to slow down China (and they strongly want it!), their only remaining weapon is banning ASML altogheter, the Japanese will follow swift, they seem eager to obey, even if they have tools 100% withouth US technology. But in their case it does not matter, they are just happy to obey.

So I foresee that ASML will be banned more and more, until it will banned altogheter.

In the positive scenario this will require still some years and will be a gradual process, in the worst case scenario US will force ASML to stop also spare parts service and mainteinance for the current 1400+(!) installed base: this would be really bad.

Click to expand...

Thanks bro for the insight much appreciated, but I do believed that most Europeans are not into HARA KIRI, that word is alien to them, Opps I have to retract, they just blow up the Nord Stream pipeline.

european_guy said:

In the positive scenario this will require still some years and will be a gradual process, in the worst case scenario US will force ASML to stop also spare parts service and mainteinance for the current 1400+(!) installed base: this would be really bad.

Click to expand...

It is hard to believe that the world's largest manufacturer China needs ASML to service the machines already installed. Surely they could do it themselves if forced or am I am being totally wrong here?

I would love to read more about the servicing situation.

european_guy said:

ASML and Dutch government played their cards at the best they could, delaying for almost one year the inevitable ban.

One can say they could have resisted more, but let's see what happened. Two months ago US abruptly changed to 0% (zero!) the de minimis rule for lithographic machines (and only for those machines!), it means ASML cannot sell DUVi in China even if they have a single bolt designed with a US CAD software, practically speaking this is a full unilateral ban, a true example of a blatant bully action. If US arrived at that point, is because Ducth government and ASML succeed in watering down and prolong the discussion for a full year until US, out of rage and frustration, abruptly banned it altogether. Biden already "summoned" the Ducth prime minister in January 2022 and made him promise to stop licensing ASML: this happened only one year and many tens of machines later.

This absurd 0% de minimis rule change in hindsight is a good point for ASML, they can say "look we did all that we could"...unfortunately it will not be enough.

First consideration is that ASML is not a US company, so US has zero problems to throw ASML under the bus. Second consideration is that all other SME tools have been already succesfully localized for 28nm and currently they are been localized for more advanced nodes. So if US wants to slow down China (and they strongly want it!), their only remaining weapon is banning ASML altogheter, the Japanese will follow swift, they seem eager to obey, even if they have tools 100% withouth US technology. But in their case it does not matter, they are just happy to obey.

So I foresee that ASML will be banned more and more, until it will banned altogheter.

In the positive scenario this will require still some more years and will be a gradual process, in the worst case scenario US will force ASML to stop also spare parts service and mainteinance for the current 1400+(!) installed base: this would be really bad.

Click to expand...

ASML is the sole producer of EUV. US of A cannot do much.

ansy1968 said:

Thanks bro for the insight much appreciated, but I do believed that most Europeans are not into HARA KIRI, that word is alien to them, Opps I have to retract, they just blow up the Nord Stream pipeline.

Click to expand...

I'd really prefer to keep my posts away from geopolitics, but because here most people is not European, I feel somewhat pressed to explain a bit the situation here in Europe.

European citizens are definitely NOT in hara kiri, for instance we (the people) believe that Ukraine war is a disaster for Europe and European economy....but European politicians (especially those in Bruxells) and the media are a different kind of animal.

All western media strictly follows a single narrative regarding foreign policy, a narrative not written in Europe btw. They are even more strict than US media! And politicians are too afraid of their career to dare some brave action, like vocally express what their people think.

donjasjit said:

It is hard to believe that the world's largest manufacturer China needs ASML to service the machines already installed. Surely they could do it themselves if forced or am I am being totally wrong here?

Click to expand...

Currently ASML China employs around 1600 people. They are spread all over China fabs, they are "sold" together with the machine as is common in this market (but not only in this market). They ensure the machines run smoothly.

Without them it would be a huge problem for the fabs.

Of course in case of ASML stops service many of those technicians will set up some independent maintenance firm, also there would be some Chinese precision parts company that would manufacture unofficial spare parts, etc. But this would not be an easy fix, this would be a very big problem to overcome.

european_guy said:

Currently ASML China employs around 1600 people. They are spread all over China fabs, they are "sold" together with the machine as is common in this market (but not only in this market). They ensure the machines run smoothly.

Without them it would be a huge problem for the fabs.

Of course in case of ASML stops service many of those technicians will set up some independent maintenance firm, also there would be some Chinese precision parts company that would manufacture unofficial spare parts, etc. But this would not be an easy fix, this would be a very big problem to overcome.

Click to expand...

This year is election season in America, where each candidate wants to show how tough they can be on China. In such a situation, if China shows more advances in chip technology(5nm etc), then it almost certain that a total banning of ASML situation will arise.

It seems likely, Chinese business and government are already making drastic preparations for such a scenario.

The track record of the argument “loss of service will lead to disaster” is sketchy at best. Remember, after the West imposed sanctions on Russian aviation everyone was saying that very soon Russian planes would be grounded. Nothing of the sort happened, Russian planes are still flying. Iran goes one step further, it still flies it’s Tomcats bought in the 1970’s.

european_guy said:

I'd really prefer to keep my posts away from geopolitics, but because here most people is not European, I feel somewhat pressed to explain a bit the situation here in Europe.

European citizens are definitely NOT in hara kiri, for instance we (the people) believe that Ukraine war is a disaster for Europe and European economy....but European politicians (especially those in Bruxells) and the media are a different kind of animal.

All western media strictly follows a single narrative regarding foreign policy, a narrative not written in Europe btw. They are even more strict than US media! And politicians are too afraid of their career to dare some brave action, like vocally express what their people think.



Currently ASML China employs around 1600 people. They are spread all over China fabs, they are "sold" together with the machine as is common in this market (but not only in this market). They ensure the machines run smoothly.

Without them it would be a huge problem for the fabs.

Of course in case of ASML stops service many of those technicians will set up some independent maintenance firm, also there would be some Chinese precision parts company that would manufacture unofficial spare parts, etc. But this would not be an easy fix, this would be a very big problem to overcome.

Click to expand...

@european_guy bro will ASML buy a Chinese firm or make a subsidiaries just for the Chinese market? they had already establish their presence with their Human resources surely they don't want to let them go to SMEE and CETC?

european_guy said:

ASML and Dutch government played their cards at the best they could, delaying for almost one year the inevitable ban.

One can say they could have resisted more, but let's see what happened. Two months ago US abruptly changed to 0% (zero!) the de minimis rule for lithographic machines (and only for those machines!), it means ASML cannot sell DUVi in China even if they have a single bolt designed with a US CAD software, practically speaking this is a full unilateral ban, a true example of a blatant bully action. If US arrived at that point, is because Ducth government and ASML succeed in watering down and prolong the discussion for a full year until US, out of rage and frustration, abruptly banned it altogether. Biden already "summoned" the Ducth prime minister in January 2022 and made him promise to stop licensing ASML: this happened only one year and many tens of machines later.

This absurd 0% de minimis rule change in hindsight is a good point for ASML, they can say "look we did all that we could"...unfortunately it will not be enough.

First consideration is that ASML is not a US company, so US has zero problems to throw ASML under the bus. Second consideration is that all other SME tools have been already succesfully localized for 28nm and currently they are been localized for more advanced nodes. So if US wants to slow down China (and they strongly want it!), their only remaining weapon is banning ASML altogheter, the Japanese will follow swift, they seem eager to obey, even if they have tools 100% withouth US technology. But in their case it does not matter, they are just happy to obey.

So I foresee that ASML will be banned more and more, until it will banned altogheter.

In the positive scenario this will require still some more years and will be a gradual process, in the worst case scenario US will force ASML to stop also spare parts service and mainteinance for the current 1400+(!) installed base: this would be really bad.

Click to expand...

less and less companies will use American technologies, just not worth it ... I think the US is playing the card too far/rude

PopularScience said:

ASML is the sole producer of EUV. US of A cannot do much.

Click to expand...

Power source bro, power source, ASML EUVL is using CYMER lasers and also they are part of SEMATECH Consortium funded by DARPA. TSMC is part of that group, so you can see their dilemma.

The only way for ASML to do Business with the Chinese is to buy a Chinese firm, form a JV with SMEE or outright established a Chinese subsidiaries using Gigaphoton as its power source, there are a lot of way for ASML to do it BUT its a political decision not economics.

SEMATECH (from Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology) is a not-for-profit that performs research and development to advance manufacturing. SEMATECH has broad engagement with various sectors of the R&D community, including chipmakers, equipment and material suppliers, universities, research institutes, and government partners. The group is funded by member dues.

History[

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SEMATECH was conceived in 1986, formed in 1987, and began operating in , in 1988 as a partnership between the United States government and 14 U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturers to solve common manufacturing problems and regain competitiveness for the U.S. that had been surpassed by Japanese industry in the mid-1980s. SEMATECH was funded over five years by public subsidies coming from the via the (DARPA) for a total of $500 million.

Following a determination by SEMATECH Board of Directors to eliminate matching funds from the U.S. government after 1996, the organization's focus shifted from the U.S. semiconductor industry to the larger international semiconductor industry, abandoning the initial U.S. government-initiative. Its members represent about half of the worldwide chip market. In late 2015, SEMATECH transferred the Critical Materials Council (CMC), a membership group of semiconductor fabricators, to TECHCET CA LLC, an advisory service firm dedicated to providing supply-chain and market information on electronic materials. This group of procurement and quality managers continues to focus on anticipating and remedying materials supply-chain issues and focusing on best practices. The CMC is now an integral part of TECHCET's business and provides guidance on their work of Critical Materials Reports and CMC Conference activities.


International members, who joined in 1996, include Philips, Hyundai, LGSemicon, STMicroelectronics, Infineon, and TSMC. The following year U.S. government funding dropped to zero.

What type of computation lithography is developed in china and can china ban those to USA?