I would concern myself a little less with catching up, because that seems to be difficult. more important is whether or not they can develop consistent yield with advanced process using de-americanized tools. After all, Huawei showed with 9000S that you can get something pretty good without havng the latest process.Neither i m professional expert..
SMIC 7nm has 115 MTr/mm2 .. which is better than intel 7nm process.
so how can you say this, SMIC will catch up with Intel by 2028. more or less SMIC is now equivalent to intel..
as of now, only TSMC and SS is ahead. but by end of this decade, SMIC will be equivalent with TSMC..
Also, based on what hvpc said, 115 MTR/mm2 is a little ambitious. I'd guess something between 100-110 based on what I've read.
but more important than that, the question is whether they can move at faster cadence than people they are chasing. Well, that goes beyond just technical. There are economic considerations also. For example, whether you can justify paying 25% more for 20% greater transistor density if the actual number of usable non-SRAM transistors increase by a much smaller amount. As we saw with recent A17, the performance improvement over A16 just wasn't there. It was all achieved by higher power consumption and just larger die and more core, not through improved process.
so for SMIC, the goal is to just steadily improve every year until EUV becomes available. Maybe they get something better than N7+ next year and something around Samsung 4LPP the year after If they can get EUV handed over in 2025 to work with other domestic tools, then they can take a year or so to get process worked out and then starting to fab real 5nm process sometimes in 2026. That would be the goal.