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Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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de-americanized 14nm better happen in 2024 if Huawei plans to get all the chips it needs for its sales next year.
photoresists shouldn't be a concern. Xuzhou Bokang says its photoresists are good enough for 14nm
as for metrology, Idk, they might have to tolerate lower yield for a while. Not sure if there are other non-American suppliers. from what I can see, none of the other countries really have as tight of export enforcement as US does.
So is it a correct estimate that China will be fully independent on chips and equipment manufacturing by 2035?
it better be there a lot sooner than that, lol
anyways, CMOS market
Huawei will use Ominivision big time next year. No more foreign CMOS by the time Mate 70 comes around.
My guess is that it has just as stash of foreign CMOS chips and memory chips that it needs to burn through before going fully domestic
I'm personally leaning on an EUV prototype being ready for delivery next year, though admittedly that is an optimistic estimate.
Depends on what you consider "fully independent". Fully independent at what level of technology? I expect full independence up to 7 nm logic before 2030.
I guess, what I really wonder, is if China will be able to catch up to Intel, TSMC, Samsung, ASML. What I understand TSMC will be selling 2nm chips from 2024-2025. If China reach 7nm in 2030. Well, that is what Western and Asian companies produced 7nm chips back in 2014. I will admit that I know little about this. Can someone just write a summary so that we that studied economics in college and not engineering in college also understand what is going on in the chips-war.
"If China reach 7nm in 2030 using close to 100% domestic equipment, materials and software."
SMIC already achieved 7nm and is rumored that have achieved 5nm.
I'll preface my comment by clearly stating I'm definitely not one of the experts here. That being said, just based on what I have read so far in this thread, as well as seeing the current rate of progression on China's side, I would bet $1,000 on full catch up to Intel by 2028, full catch up to Samsung by 2032, and full catch up to TSMC by 2036.
Depends on the technology node (GAAFET, 7nm finfet, 14nm finfet, 28nm finfet,45nm planar, 110nm planar), what volume (1M WPM, 100K WPM, 20K WPM) and with what yield (90%, 50%, 30%).
I would dare to say that right now that China is capable of almost fully indigenous 28nm, ~20K WPM, with a yield of a least 50-60% semiconductor fab and it could be they have these types of fab running already.
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