Chinese semiconductor industry

tokenanalyst said:

I do agree that you provide good information and not disputing that,

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Thank you?..... for your recognition.

tokenanalyst said:

but I don't think you have access to sensible parts of the Chinese semiconductors industry, especially of companies that are avoiding any scrutiny and much much less if you are not mainland Chinese.

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then, sir, please just ignore what I shared.

apologies, fellow members of SDF, for sharing much info today that may have been in contradiction with this forum's consensus view. I'll try to behave and stay in incognito mode.

hvpc said:

Thank you?..... for your recognition.

then, sir, please just ignore what I shared.

apologies, all, for sharing much info today that may have been in contradiction with this forum's consensus view. I'll try to behave and try to stay in the incognito mode.

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Apologies for what?
You provide what you know and your say yours opinion base on your knowledge and I only expressing my consensus base in my logical thinking and my own research. Is my opinion, no this forum opinion.

Also I am not attacking @hvpc or anyone. I am just saying there is a lot of secrecy in some parts of the semiconductor industry in China, especially when comes to sanction busting research and development for obvious reason.

hvpc said:

rumors.

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Is huawei one of your customer？Have you been to huawei fabs？

tokenanalyst said:

Also I am not attacking @hvpc or anyone. I am just saying there is a lot of secrecy in some parts of the semiconductor industry in China, especially when comes to sanction busting research and development for obvious reason. In those cases I really think they do check who work in those areas.

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you are right in this regards.. i have keep telling this to all people. Tech/Trade War have changed everything. it is really hard for an outsider to get sensitive information about strategic industries. and even companies hide a lot things and research papers.

for example :- total number of patents China send to WIPO is not actual number of patents China registered in 2021 year. approx 20% research papers never left mainland. many institutes and companies are following the same strategy.

sunnymaxi said:

you are right in this regards.. i have keep telling this to all people. Tech/Trade War have changed everything. it is really hard for an outsider to get sensitive information about strategic industries. and even companies hide a lot things and research papers.

for example :- total number of patents China send to WIPO is not actual number of patents China registered in 2021 year. approx 20% research papers never left mainland. many institutes and companies are following the same strategy.

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Some bottlenecks may take longer to solve than others. Confidence and optimism is great, but @hvpc made great points and substantiated them pretty well. I think it's always safer to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

sunnymaxi said:

you are right in this regards.. i have keep telling this to all people. Tech/Trade War have changed everything. it is really hard for an outsider to get sensitive information about strategic industries. and even companies hide a lot things and research papers.

for example :- total number of patents China send to WIPO is not actual number of patents China registered in 2021 year. approx 20% research papers never left mainland. many institutes and companies are following the same strategy.

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There is a lot of collaboration in very important R&D and semiconductor production that you don't see even in the Chinese semiconductor media and new institutions as important as the Shanghai ICRD that don't even have a webpage, just a name reference in a listing and a lot of patents with this obscure institution name on it.

HighGround said:

Some bottlenecks may take longer to solve than others. Confidence and optimism is great, but @hvpc made great points and substantiated them pretty well. I think it's always safer to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

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agreed. there are still many hurdles and bottleneck to solve.

hvpc sir is one of my favrt personality on this forum. i have learned a lot from his posts.

hvpc said:

The current bottleneck at these advanced nodes are not ArFi litho tools but American made process, metrology, and inspection equipment. Until we can find alternative to U.S. process & metrology equipment, the bottleneck will not be with litho tools.

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@hvpc not to dispute with anything you said, but I have a genuine question. You mentioned that Chinese fabs already have plenty of ASML litho sitting in warehouses and plenty more on the way, which they can't use for several years due to not having access to American tools. I suppose the American intelligence and commerce department would be well aware of the situation whatever it may be.

So my question is given that american tools have been cutoff for a year, and if SMIC expansion is at a stand still, why did the Americans went to all this trouble to further restrict ASML tools. They already had a good enough win with the Dutch agreeing to cut off everything up to 1980Di. As another member mentioned here all extra pressure US puts on the Dutch cost them some political good will, and ideally use it when they absolutely need it. So if they are confident that cutting off US tools is enough to stop SMIC expansion, why would they try to put extra pressure on ASML again?