Chinese semiconductor industry

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weig2000

Captain
ChinaTalk on Huawei's new chip and Mate 60 pro, etc.


From the introduction of the video:

Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of Semi-Analysis. We get into: - How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime - Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years - What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem - How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space.

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Overall impression:
  • Dylan Patel & Co are highly complimentary about Huawei's Kirin 9000S and SMIC's process technology.
  • "China has been constantly underestimated;" "China's process technology is on par with the US now (Intel)."
  • Barely mention Chinese SEMs, appear to be quite ignorant of the players and rapid progress that have been made
  • "EUV is the last battle."
  • Talk a lot about the EV/BYD analog
  • Talk about Patel's List of 20 to stop China's semiconductor development and advance once for all.
 
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A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
Overall impression:
  • Dylan Patel & Co are highly complimentary about Huawei's Kirin 9000S and SMIC's process technology.
  • "China has been constantly underestimated;" China's process technology is on par with the US now (Intel)
  • Barely mention Chinese SEMs, appear to be quite ignorant of the players and rapid progress that have been made
  • "EUV is the last battle."
  • Talk a lot about the EV/BYD analog
Click to expand...
His opinion on puzzle pieces sanction is spot on, instead of one big swoop, the piece meal approach enable the Chinese to produce an import substitution without delaying its progress and the side effect had fast track China Domestic OEM.
weig2000 said:
  • Talk about Patel's List of 20 to stop China's semiconductor development and advance once for all.
Click to expand...
Too late, the ship had sail. Trump should have impose a total ban 5 years ago. If he done so will delay the Chinese development for at least a decade.
 
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Canton_pop

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Interesting read especially this paragraph summarizes overall Korean mentality on Chinese products :
Samsung still believes China can’t catch up as it doesn’t have access to EUV equipment. Such complacency reminds me of the backfire from ridiculing Chinese products as copycats. When China released its first smartphone in 2012, Korea called it as “a mistake of the mainland.”
 
tphuang

tphuang

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weig2000 said:
ChinaTalk on Huawei's new chip and Mate 60 pro, etc.


From the introduction of the video:

Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of Semi-Analysis. We get into: - How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime - Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years - What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem - How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall impression:
  • Dylan Patel & Co are highly complimentary about Huawei's Kirin 9000S and SMIC's process technology.
  • "China has been constantly underestimated;" "China's process technology is on par with the US now (Intel)."
  • Barely mention Chinese SEMs, appear to be quite ignorant of the players and rapid progress that have been made
  • "EUV is the last battle."
  • Talk a lot about the EV/BYD analog
  • Talk about Patel's List of 20 to stop China's semiconductor development and advance once for all.
Click to expand...
Lol, I actually got invited to do his podcast and declined. I don't particularly have an issue with any of them really. They just haven't adjusted their assessment on rest of China's industry. More a factor of coping rather than intellectual dishonesty imo.
 
A

ansy1968

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Registered Member
Canton_pop said:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Interesting read especially this paragraph summarizes overall Korean mentality on Chinese products :
Samsung still believes China can’t catch up as it doesn’t have access to EUV equipment. Such complacency reminds me of the backfire from ridiculing Chinese products as copycats. When China released its first smartphone in 2012, Korea called it as “a mistake of the mainland.” B
Click to expand...
It's a psychological defense mechanism, you need to hype yourself before a fight. A philosophical advise from Tyson "The new plan needs to deal with right now reality. There's no point thinking about training and strategy while you're being punched in the face."
 
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lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
His opinion on puzzle pieces sanction is spot on, instead of one big swoop, the piece meal approach enable the Chinese to produce an import substitution without delaying its progress and the side effect had fast track China Domestic OEM.

Too late, the ship had sail. Trump should have impose a total ban 5 years ago. If he done so will delay the Chinese development for at least a decade.
Click to expand...

Simultaneously weak and strong.
They're (Dylan specifically) only complimentary because they can say the advances are only because they're using western equipment and know-how that Chinese people cannot hope to replicate if fully cut off. So it lends to the argument that victory is in grasp if the US doubles down harder.

tphuang said:
Lol, I actually got invited to do his podcast and declined. I don't particularly have an issue with any of them really. They just haven't adjusted their assessment on rest of China's industry. More a factor of coping rather than intellectual dishonesty imo.
Click to expand...
Guy's got a long posting history he probably hasn't got around to deleting yet. Me doubting he ever updated his priors.

I still remember when he editorialized an article title about Taiwanese engineers stealing secrets from BASF to sell to mainland companies and changed it to Chinese engineers when posting the google translated article.... except it was Taiwanese in the title so no way google translate would have made the mistake.. Real intellectual honesty there haha.

Maybe he matured, but it's only been 4 years.
Edit: I think this was the article.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
ChinaTalk on Huawei's new chip and Mate 60 pro, etc.


From the introduction of the video:

Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of Semi-Analysis. We get into: - How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime - Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years - What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem - How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall impression:
  • Dylan Patel & Co are highly complimentary about Huawei's Kirin 9000S and SMIC's process technology.
  • "China has been constantly underestimated;" "China's process technology is on par with the US now (Intel)."
  • Barely mention Chinese SEMs, appear to be quite ignorant of the players and rapid progress that have been made
  • "EUV is the last battle."
  • Talk a lot about the EV/BYD analog
  • Talk about Patel's List of 20 to stop China's semiconductor development and advance once for all.
Click to expand...
it's a lot of hubris and copium throughout, but especially at the outro. they think they can roll china back away from 7nm or shut down their entire industry.
 
C

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
His opinion on puzzle pieces sanction is spot on, instead of one big swoop, the piece meal approach enable the Chinese to produce an import substitution without delaying its progress and the side effect had fast track China Domestic OEM.

Too late, the ship had sail. Trump should have impose a total ban 5 years ago. If he done so will delay the Chinese development for at least a decade.
Click to expand...
I for one thank the Trump and Biden teams for making so many missteps along the way. They have done very well to help accelerate Chinese displacement of Western global power. Also, it's not like a total industry-wide ban would've been especially feasible. I am sure in that scenario, China would assert some deterrence in one form or another, such as mass sell-off of treasuries (as opposed to the current incremental approach), export restrictions on medical supplies/inputs to the West, rare earths, etc.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
CMP said:
I for one thank the Trump and Biden teams for making so many missteps along the way. They have done very well to help accelerate Chinese displacement of Western global power. Also, it's not like a total industry-wide ban would've been especially feasible. I am sure in that scenario, China would assert some deterrence in one form or another, such as mass sell-off of treasuries (as opposed to the current incremental approach), export restrictions on medical supplies/inputs to the West, rare earths, etc.
Click to expand...
The misstep they took like Dylan is of Hubris, like @lube had mentioned after 4 years he was given a good lesson about China Speed....lol

You know I'm really grateful that a lot of our esteem members willingly share their opinion, insight and their personal experience in this forum. Its very exciting especially when we can decipher what the Chinese are actually doing, giving those so called Western Experts looking stupid, at least Dylan is man enough to change his tune and not double down (well he is still seeking redemption by making those recommendation...lol) unlike most of his colleague and So called Defense analyst. :)
 
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