Chinese semiconductor industry

56860 said:

So basically mindless hyperventilation then?

If this guy is wrong on that count, how much trust can we put into his other statements? (i.e regarding SMIC's yield).

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lube said:

I remember him dooming over SMIC reaching 7nm with the ASIC mining chip and how it meant SMIC has beaten Intel.
As a "chip analyst", he either knows he's sprouting BS or he's still a grade A hack.
Maybe he thinks has the contacts or use the power of Twitter to try and nudge the US into sanctioning China faster?

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I think he just hasn't re-adjusted his assessment of China's semiconductor industry overall. That's a big mistake on his part.

I read the entire piece. Based on his current assessment of where China' SMEs are at (and I think it's coping on his part), everything he says there is reasonable.

what he said about SMIC yield seems reasonable to me. Maybe I'm overestimating things, but TechInsight also said it's well made. The guy who broke the Kirin news said yield is higher than the original Samsung SD8 Gen 1, but the yield on that wasn't good. But I think generally speaking, the yield is probably good enough for a 110mm^2 chip and will get better. That's the relevant part here

tphuang said:

I think he just hasn't re-adjusted his assessment of China's semiconductor industry overall. That's a big mistake on his part.

I read the entire piece. Based on his current assessment of where China' SMEs are at (and I think it's coping on his part), everything he says there is reasonable.

what he said about SMIC yield seems reasonable to me. Maybe I'm overestimating things, but TechInsight also said it's well made. The guy who broke the Kirin news said yield is higher than the original Samsung SD8 Gen 1, but the yield on that wasn't good. But I think generally speaking, the yield is probably good enough for a 110mm^2 chip and will get better. That's the relevant part here

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Apart from the delusional list at the end, the article is not bad, actually the analysis seems sound. The only weak point (but is not a small detail) is the coping regarding Chinese localization efforts: he totally ignores that Chinese tool makers in 2023 are not in the same position of just 2 years ago, actually today reality is completely different.

Reading the list, I am even more confident that someone in China hopes US goes all in...it would be another 2 years of +50% revenues for Chinese SME equipment makers and the final kick of western suppliers out of the market.....of course western suppliers of both chips and equipment, and SIA, that represents them, know this very well....there must be frenzy lobbying going on in Washington right now...

The first fully independently developed electronic-grade silicon core cleaning equipment in China is about to be delivered to customers.​

Changzhou Jiejiachuang Precision Machinery Co., Ltd.’s first domestically developed electronic-grade silicon core cleaning equipment has successfully rolled off the production line and will be deployed to a cooperative customer in the near future.

This silicon core cleaning equipment is a corrosion cleaning equipment for silicon cores used in the silicon material end process. It is used to clean organic matter, oxides and metal ions on the surface of the silicon core, using alkali cleaning, pickling, ultrasonic, functional water and other processes. , the product can be used in the production process of high-purity photovoltaic silicon wafers and semiconductor silicon wafers. The total surface metal after cleaning is ≤0.2ppbm.




Shenzhen Jiejiawei Innovation Energy Equipment Co., Ltd. was founded in 2003. It is a national high-tech enterprise mainly engaged in the research .

Jiejia Weichuang Company has built more than 200,000 square meters of industrial parks in Shenzhen, Guangdong and Changzhou, Jiangsu. The total number of employees will exceed 9,000 in 2022, and the engineering technology R&D team will exceed 1,200.

Jiejia Weichuang Company focuses on the solar photovoltaic industry and has industry-leading solar cell equipment R&D, manufacturing and production supply capabilities. Its main products include wet equipment series, tubular equipment series, plate equipment series, laser equipment series, and metallization equipment series. , intelligent manufacturing equipment series, etc., its production and sales have ranked first in the industry for seven consecutive years, and it has grown into the world's largest solar cell equipment supplier.

Facing the pressure of global resources and environment, Jiejia Weichuang Company implements the "double carbon" goal with technological innovation, takes promoting photovoltaic grid parity and popularizing green energy as its own responsibility, and comprehensively deploys PERC, TOPCon, HJT, IBC, and perovskite solar cells Equipment, providing high-efficiency solar cell equipment and intelligent manufacturing system solutions, and at the same time, following the development path of photovoltaic equipment products, extending into the field of semiconductor equipment.

The Shanghai Institute of Optics and Mechanics established the fifth scientific research department to focus on major needs such as strong laser systems and precision lithography systems.​

The official public account of the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences recently introduced that on the morning of September 8, the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Mechanics held a summary of the institute’s theme education, a work promotion meeting before the end of the year, and an inauguration meeting of the scientific research department.
At the meeting, Shao Jianda, Secretary of the Party Committee, conveyed the spirit of the enlarged meeting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ 2023 summer party group, the spirit of the academy’s theme education summary conference, and the content of the “Opinions of the Academy’s Party Group on Comprehensively Strengthening Party Leadership and Party Building Implementation”, and discussed the first batch of two On the establishment of the scientific research department, a summary and mobilization speech was given.
Shao Jianda said that the reform of the departmental structure of scientific research units is an inevitable choice for Shanghai Institute of Optics and Mechanics to adapt to the new requirements of the new era. He put forward three requirements: First, the entire institute should closely follow the national needs and the spirit of the institute’s party group meeting, aim to seize the commanding heights of science and technology, and fulfill the mission and responsibilities of strategic science and technology forces. Second, the entire institute must make up its mind to give full play to its institutional advantages, strengthen organized scientific research, create a scientific research paradigm of "dividing can work independently, and gathering can work together to tackle key problems", so as to make national affairs a matter of honor and matters of honor a national matter. The third is to continue to consolidate and deepen the results of thematic education, closely focus on the core task of seizing the commanding heights of science and technology, invigorate the spirit, and work hard.

At the meeting, the establishment ceremony of the Aerospace Laser Technology and System Department (Scientific Research Department Two) and the High-Power Laser Component Technology and Engineering Department (Scientific Research Department Five) was held. Chen Weibiao, director and deputy secretary of the party committee, read out the founding documents of most departments, and Shao Jianda awarded the seal of the newly activated department.

The High Power Laser Component Technology and Engineering Department is guided by the development plan of the Institute of Optics and Mechanics and is committed to basic research and engineering preparation of optical components in response to major needs such as strong laser systems, precision lithography systems and optoelectronic systems in extreme service environments. Technical research supports the development of our institute’s engineering system and capacity building.

56860 said:

”The US government and its allies could stop the Chinese semiconductor industry in its tracks. Here are some steps that could be taken to ensure that China does not develop the ability to mass-manufacture the sorts of chips needed for high-end military applications in the coming years:

1. Limit ArFi immersion lithography tools.
2. Limit servicing of existing equipment.
3. Limit ArFi photoresist.
4. Limit masks.
5. Limit mask blanks, writers, and other associated infrastructure.
6. Limit metrology equipment.
7. Limit CMP equipment.
8. Limit epitaxy equipment.
9. Limit dry etch equipment.
10. Limit CVD and ALD equipment.
11. Limit advanced packaging equipment.
12. Limit ion implantation equipment.
13. Limit semiconductor manufacturing equipment subsystems and subassemblies.
14. Limit etchant gas.
15. Limit deposition precursors.
16. Limit chips that have >25.6Tbps of IO even if they have no compute.
17. Limit chips that have >1000TOPS of performance.
18. Limit the
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19. Limit EDA tools.
20. Limit Joint Ventures and inbound investments.

Half measures will not work, but a full-scale assault will make it so the cost of replicating the semiconductor supply chain domestically is neigh on impossible. While we aren’t advocating for any of these specifically, it is clear the west can still stop China’s rise if decisive action is taken.“

Thoughts?

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The vast majority of those are premised on the assumption China doesn’t the capability to do those things on their own or have domestic alternatives already in the pipe.

“Limit service of existing equipment” - assuming existing Chinese technicians already trained in the service procedures won’t continue to do so or won’t move to domestic firms/contractors under further sanctions.

“Limit ArFi photoresist/Limit etchant gas/Limit deposition precursors/etc” - anyone whose been following this forum thread for more than a couple years will know there’s already Chinese based alternatives

so interesting point about Mate 60 satcom capability since more phones are now expected to have this functionality.

《科创板日报》记者从华力创通一名大客户销售人士处了解到，华力创通与华为也有合作。模式是，华为出研发费用，华力创通定制研发用于Mate 60 Pro手机的天通卫基带芯片。该销售人士称，协议期内，此种芯片不能对其他客户销售，如果其他客户想找华力创通采购这类芯片，需要通过出研发费用定制，或者等华为协议到期，采购同类芯片。

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Sounds like Huawei & Hwa Create cooperated on this project of Tiantong satcom modem. Works just with Tiantong. This chip is not allowed to be sold to any other customers. Any other customers looking to use this must come to an agreement with Huawei or spent more research money to develop it.

This guy actually predicted that Huawei Kirin processor will be the first customer of SMIC N+2，a year ago

tonyget said:

This guy actually predicted that Huawei Kirin processor will be the first customer of SMIC N+2，a year ago

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To be fair there aren't exactly many other customers who would require such an advanced process node. Also other Chinese smartphone manufacturers don't have their own SoC like Huawei