Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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SMIC and Huahong summary
Q1 monthly capacity was 732k wpm 8 inch equivalent
Q2 it was 754k (so nice increase)
2022Q4 was 714k (pretty steady increase imo)

ASP 2022Q4 was $1029/wafer
Q1 was $1167/wafer
Q2 was $1112/wafer
2022Q2 was $1008/wafer

Again, Q1 was a special quarter where SMIC really avoided low revenue 8-inch business
The fact that Q2 ASP was higher than more comparable Q4 and 11% higher YoY is quite good.
Shows that they are on average doing more higher end stuff

They've basically bottomed out in Q1, Q2 revenue was higher and so will Q3 revenue. margins will be down a little bit, but still within same ballpark

Huahong on the other hand also had a relatively good Q2 where its revenue was actually up YoY and margins was still at 27.7%. But it will really see things drop in Q3 with revenue expected to be in $560-600m range instead of $630m as in Q2. Its capacity capacity continues to increase to 347k wpm 8-inch equivalent
 

tphuang

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More good news I guess. Looks like Nova series going all 5G, which would indicate they have gotten supply chain in order to produce enough RF components and Kirin chips.

For higher end models like Mate 60, I expect Snapdragon 8G3 paired with Huawei's own 5G modem
 

Psyclonus

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Sai Micro has received trial production orders for micro vibration mirrors which are core components for Laser beam manipulation in Lidars & Laser displays in the field such as cars and AR/VR

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Keep in mind that Sai Micro signed deal back in April 2022 with a well known Lidar company to produce micro mirrors

The core beam steering element of MEMS Lidar is micro vibration mirror. By fabbing it in 8-inch production line, this can dramatically reduce the cost & volume of solid state Lidars

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Back in Dec 2021, Sai Micro still said the difficulty level of micro vibration mirrors is high and they have not achieved mass production

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Back a year ago, sai micro says they are still developing the process for making micro vibration mirrors

So, looks like another technical hurdle has been met by domestic chipmaking leader in MEMS
kind of curious. Nowadays LiDAR using mems,mainly products from robosense has been widely deployed in many EVs, like Xiaopeng. In 2022, they sold about 57000 mems LiDAR. I think the mass production of mems optical parts is possible.
 

tphuang

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this is good stuff, I need to listen to the earnings call but a lot of golden nuggets in here

Q:定价环境及展望?

A:1)DDIC、CMOS图像传感器等大宗标准化产品价格较低,由于公司正在扩充12寸产能,因此必须要接收这类
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订单来填充产能,这是混合价格走弱的原因。2)8寸市场有三大逆风:手机市场库存去化,需求不足;模拟芯片方面,国际IDM扩产、重新进 入市场并进行价格战;LCD驱动器备货过多,订单下滑。综上考量,下半年ASP还是会下滑。

Q:市场竞争正在加剧,公司有什么措施?随着利用率恢复,利润率将回到什么水平?定价环境会否恶化?

A:今年是低谷,所以不能用今年的水平作为未来3-5年的锚。8英寸市场竞争激烈,市场有10000种不同产品,但总有厂商可以每年推出高质量的产品并迭代,在订单和价格上保证优势;
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份额较小,扩产对产业影响不大,公司正在投入特色产品,并积累能力和经验,即使面临挑战,公司仍然可以进行规划和市场开发。

Q:考虑到利用率逆风,公司是否考虑推迟扩产节奏?

A:8寸产能基本建设完成,之后不会在增加了,公司在8寸的产能扩产也是基于客户协议。此外,当前利用率不足的压力,以及行业低谷,并不是正常情况,因而不能作为未来3-5年规划的基础,当市场复苏,产能利用将会恢复满载。

Q:海外库存去化低于预期,是否会对24年公司 扩张节奏带来挑战?

A:海外库存去化是否低于预期,这值得商榷,海外客户一般和OEM有长约,所以一般在行业下行时,欧美客户的订单修正时间会和中国设计公司差2个季度。公司到Q2才开始看到他们在订单、库存上面进行严格管理,与之对比,中国客户可能在去年9月就已经开始调整了。整体市场复苏弱于预期,随着疫情影响降低,公司在年初预估市场将迎来复苏、甚至更好,但目前市场没有看到进一步的复苏,还需要宏观经济的进一步修复。2024年市场预估较为平稳,消费电子的复苏需要宏观经济推动,不是半导体产业一己之力可以改变的。但产能方面,公司长期与客户合作、协议,长期 产能规划并不是线性的,而是根据客户路线图进行投产;此外,公司也在产能和设备上也有一定的柔性,能够应对不确定性。目前的产能规划中,28nm、40nm是短缺的,需要扩产来满足客户新产品的需要,这季度55nm、65nm也有同样的趋势,公司必须迅速建立产能满足客户新产品 需求。

Q:28nm、40nm市场会不会出现类似上轮周期的利用率下滑的问题?

A:28nm、40nm有屏幕驱动器、CMOS图像处理器和MCU,此外,还有90nm、55nm产品向 28nm、40nm发展的驱动力,公司认为40nm是 一个成本结构不错的节点、28nm是平面工艺很好的节点。公司进入28nm、40nm的时间晚于行业龙头,但客户比较分散,平台比较多,公司会通过做全做多的方式填充产线。

Q:中国收入占比上升,智能手机也在上升,似乎好于手机市场的表现,原因是什么?

A:中国方面:1)中国客户提前调整库存,这点比欧美客户早,OEM有长约,去年想要削减也做不到,今年正在逐步削减,因此中国市场调整的早,回升也就比较早;2)中国客户今年在消费 电子、手机、电动汽车供应链中获得更大的份额,带动
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需求,这也是40nm、28nm甚至55nm产能不足的一个原因。手机方面:维修型手机市场被市场忽视了,但该 市场对中芯国际也有一定影响,当业者在以旧换 新活动回收手机后,会对旧手机进行电路更换的处理,这是个很大的市场,且参与者大多是中国客户。

Q:公司目前资本支出方向?24、25年会不会产 能过剩?

A:公司CAPEX主要投向12寸产能,目前12寸还 需要持续增长才会达到经济规模。公司目前在几 个地方同时投产,这样能够尽快达到规模经济,也因此,初期几年的开销会比较大。除了厂房外,由于公司购买设备需要额外的审批 流程,在交付周期上会长一些,所以需要在采购 时留有余量。
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在设备交付和购买时一般 会提前半年-一年。

Q:24、25年会不会产能过剩?

A:1)公司投产经过客户协商,并评估客户需求 的可持续性; 2)中芯占foundry份额5%,加上IDM仅 1%-2%,扩产影响有限; 3)行业有三个原则:1)与客户达成战略协同; 2)有能力保证资源投入转化为差异化技术竞争 力;3)有经验的管理。公司做到这三点,即使 行业低谷,也能保证不被出清,并保证利用率。

Q:8寸的毛利率展望?

A:8寸的挑战:1)手机主芯片需求弱,套片也 会受影响;2)去年IDM因为产能不足丢了份 额,经过扩产后,行业竞争加剧;3)屏幕备货 过多,即使不生产,也能满足今年的需求。长期来看,8寸的需求有可持续性,因为该领域 大部分产品没有升级节点的必要性,在成本上也 没意义。AI、
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的套片会驱动需求,8寸 的需求增长可能还会好于12寸。

Q:中芯在特色工艺的投入?

A:公司进入各个节点的时间都晚于龙头,所以 实际上大部分大宗产品都已经不是标准化,而是 有差异化的。公司一般的路径是,建立标准逻辑,然后延申其 他工艺,比如一个标准逻辑发展出low-power、RF等10个平台,每个平台再做迭代,比如norflash从65nm升级到55nm、40nm。工具上,保证产线80%的工具是通用的,再逐步增添。由于公司下游需求通常是品类全,但单品类量可能不多,这种部署有利于保持灵活性。

Q:产能情况?

A:8寸:天津厂每年线性增长,一年投入4万片,今年完成后就不会再增加了; 12寸:北京工厂28nm、40nm和55nm还是比较紧缺,公司需要扩产。12寸新厂:京城和深圳在拉设备进行生产,是主要增量。

Q:京城和临港的进度?

A:临港正在建设导线,验证技术; 京城拉设备,已经进入量产,早期目标是达到最小的盈亏平衡规模; 天津在盖房子

progress of Jingcheng sounds good. They are clearly seeing demand in 28/40/55nm segment. So basically all the more advanced segment, they need to keep expanding
 

tokenanalyst

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Shanghai Xinsheng Semiconductor's integrated circuit silicon material engineering R&D supporting project has capped and is planned to be put into use next year​

The capping ceremony of Shanghai Xinsheng Semiconductor's integrated circuit silicon material engineering research and development supporting project was held in Dongfang Xingang, a new area in Lingang.
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It is reported that the project will acquire the land in July 2022 and start construction in November of the same year. The planned construction land is 66,757 square meters, and the construction of public and auxiliary facilities integrating R&D comprehensive office building, test and verification platform, power supporting, power station and other functions. The project will jointly undertake the National Integrated Circuit Materials Innovation Center project with the Shanghai Institute of Integrated Circuit Materials. It is planned to build a silicon material engineering technology research and development experimental base, which is planned to be put into use in 2024.
Shanghai Xinsheng Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shanghai Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. It is an enterprise that commercially provides 300mm (12 inches) semiconductor silicon wafers. The 300mm silicon wafers produced by the company are widely used in integrated circuit industries such as memory chips, logic chips, image sensors, IGBT power devices and communication chips.

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Wahid145

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Any news on HuaHong 14nm? It is of vital importance that they master 14nm so there can be competition for SMIC. Sometimes in feel like Liang Mong Song should jump to HuaHong. But I think he's too old to have that spirit of extreme hard work required to make rapid development like he did with Samsung and SMIC
 
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