Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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We do allow some geopolitical talk on this thread due to the nature of tech competition, but discussion about Taiwan invasion is way off topic, so I'm removing the posts related to that. I think we should continue discussion under the premise that peace will hold
 

tphuang

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Internal and external troubles TSMC production capacity expansion "sudden brake"​


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"It is reported that TSMC's 6/7nm process capacity utilization rate was less than 40% by the end of March; 4/5nm process has dropped to 75%"

"TSMC originally planned to build two factories in Kaohsiung, including 7nm and 28nm. However, following the suspension of plans for the 7nm plant of the Kaohsiung plant due to weak demand in the smartphone and PC markets, it was reported that the 28nm plan was also postponed. Delayed, and the list of 28nm equipment that the factory plans to purchase is also cancelled."

"Although TSMC has pressed the "pause button" for the construction of many factories in Taiwan, contrary to this, the construction of new factories in Arizona, USA and Kumamoto, Japan will continue to advance. Among them, the first phase of the Arizona fab is expected to in 2024 start producing 4nm chips. The second phase of the project has also started. It is expected in 2026. to start producing 3nm "


TSMC is clearly digging his own grave here. Once US fabs will be open, they are no more TSMC's, they are 100% made in USA...and owned and ruled by US: TSMC (including its people) are just a tool to produce US chips in US.

And their government does not help them because it is geopolitically controlled by US. The best thing for TSMC is that Taiwan reunites with China in the future, maybe after 2024 elections. No, is not a joke. It is an objective analysis.
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TSMC is further reducing capex in 2023 to as low as $28B given the economic downturn. keep in mind, it originally wanted to spend $40 to 44B in 2022 before reducing it to $36B.

Now, story of SMIC getting up to 8 2050i/2100i from ASML before sanctions kick in looks legit now (been circulating on Chinese social media). With all the large fabs cutting at least 1/3 off their capex, delivery slots have opened up for SMIC.

SMIC will have all the advanced DUVi it needs for its SMSC expansion for the next few years. At least until when I think domestic EUV will be ready. China can thank the plunging world economy for making the Dutch/Japanese sanctions effectively worthless.
 

tphuang

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Aside from that, Taiwanese media is reporting that Chinese EV makers are cutting back orders and using Geely as an example. Do they not know that geely established their own fabless studio for auto chips and probably getting them fabbed at Huahong?
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Yes, power chip demand is down in China, but only with foreign chip makers!

and on top of that
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They also report Chinese mature process chipmakers are raising wafer price by 10%. I'm not sure if that's true, given the lower utilization, but who knows.
 

FriedButter

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I already said here. The whole semiconductor market is in a major downturn. After massive increase in purchases of consumer PCs when people were working or studying at home because of the lockdowns, pretty much anyone who wanted a PC or consumer hardware got it. There will be a dry spell for at least a couple of years. Might even be half a decade or worse. Consumer demand for hardware is down, so the vendors are cutting production.

SIA reported some numbers a couple weeks ago if anyone want to know how much of a downturn the current semi cycle is.

Regionally, year-to-year sales increased slightly in February in Japan (1.2%), but decreased in Europe (-0.9%), the Americas (-14.8%), Asia Pacific/All Other (-22.1%), and China (-34.2%). Month-to-month sales were down across all regions: Europe (-0.3%), Japan (-0.3%), Asia Pacific/All Other (-3.6%), the Americas (-5.3%), and China (-5.9%).
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paiemon

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SIA reported some numbers a couple weeks ago if anyone want to know how much of a downturn the current semi cycle is.


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The price increases/inflation for certain segments of consumer electronics (smartphones, video cards) alone would be enough to force some decrease in demand even w/o COVID having pulled some of it forward resulting in a cyclical downturn. I can only speak to the higher end of the smartphone market since I recently purchased to refresh my phone that had almost 6 years on it and even the premium phones from 2022 like the OnePlus 10 and Samsang Galaxy S21 were still coming out to slightly over $1000 with tax. For the current flagship line you are looking at $1500+, you could almost do a nice vacation for that price.
 

Wahid145

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Hua Hong Group Manufacturing Base Layout

Huahong's 28-14nm process foundry finished in Huali, Shanghai..

Huahong's process is developing is 7-5nm

View attachment 111123
Wait for real? Why does it make me so damn happy. I've been waiting for a long time to hear their work progress in 14nm and subsequent below node chips. Can anyone please translate it?
If at least two domestic Foundry companies are there, they will compete with each other and progress will be much faster. Just look at Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo with Smartphone. They completely wiped out all Japanese, Taiwanese South Korean (except Samsung) European and American (except the obvious) companies in Smartphone business.
 

hvpc

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Wait for real? Why does it make me so damn happy. I've been waiting for a long time to hear their work progress in 14nm and subsequent below node chips. Can anyone please translate it?
If at least two domestic Foundry companies are there, they will compete with each other and progress will be much faster. Just look at Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo with Smartphone. They completely wiped out all Japanese, Taiwanese South Korean (except Samsung) European and American (except the obvious) companies in Smartphone business.
Not real. This is Huanong’s ambition/target. They are stuck at 28nm. Only one with FinFET capabilities in China are tsmc and SMIC at the moment.
 
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