That would still be peanuts compared to just how much money Chinese fab industry is likely to spend on equipment over the next decade. I'm expecting huge expansion in both mature nodes (which we have heard plans for) and advanced nodes (as domestic tools become available). There is not issue with cultivating new market, but the most immediate gains are with advanced fabs at Samsung & TSMC that many Chinese suppliers are already supplying. We've heard about wafers, gases, etching tools, EDAs and such. I'm sure there are more.South Korea is a rival with SEMES. There's also the risk of being banned. It is always better to open new markets than try to squeeze into a crowded existing market because there's literally no competition when you create a new market. That is also how Chinese companies have historically expanded: take domestic market share, create new developing country markets, then finally, take over developed markets or get banned from them. And if banned, then start eroding adversary market shares everywhere outside their home market.
Example: Africa was a small, nonexistent market for smartphones in 2010. US would've deemed them only worthy of using dumb phones on 2G and demanded they be thankful for buying dumb phones for $300 each. Chinese companies put a smartphone in every African's hand for $225 by 2019. Now there's $25 billion worth of Huawei telecom networks in Africa. A 100's billion USD level market was created out of thin air because Chinese businesses empowered Africans to buy modern technology.
The exact same thing can be done for Russia and Brazil. They've already signed MOU with China. Finance some initial orders, then they're hooked just like Africans on smartphones and telecom equipment, and a new market has been created.
This is also the logic behind why Intel invested in places that otherwise don't make much sense like Ireland, Is.rael, etc. Are these particularly huge markets? Do they make up a huge portion of tool spend or electronics customers...? Exactly. This is to create markets.
My feeling is that NAURA was seeing more like around 50% growth until this past quarter. Which makes sense, since more advanced tools = dis proportionally higher revenues (so we saw almost 80% jump in Q1)