Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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NAURA (002371): 1Q23 performance exceeded expectations and the localization rate of equipment continued to increase​

1Q23 predicted revenue growth of 68.56%-87.29% year-on-year, exceeding expectations NAURA released its 2022 performance report and 2023 first-quarter performance forecast: the company will achieve revenue of 14.688 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 51.68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company 2.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.37%. Revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are in line with previous performance forecasts (13.500-15.600 billion yuan, 2.100-2.600 billion yuan); 1Q23 company forecasted revenue of 3.600-4.000 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.56% -87.29%, the forecasted net profit attributable to the parent is 560-620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.24%-200.30%, exceeding our and market expectations. We believe that it is mainly driven by logic, storage, SiC and other factors.

  We believe

  that the rapid growth of NAURA’s revenue in 1Q23 is mainly due to: 1) around 3Q22, the batch equipment delivered by the company on the domestic logic and storage wafer manufacturing customer side has been confirmed, and the market share has further increased; 2) SiC wafer manufacturing, Substrate growth customers have greatly expanded production in recent years and are actively purchasing related equipment from the company. The improvement of the company's revenue structure has also led to a steady increase in net interest rate: If the 1Q23 revenue is 3.800 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent is 590 million yuan, the net interest rate can be calculated as 15.53%.

  After 2022, domestic wafer manufacturers will further accelerate the pace of verification of domestic semiconductor equipment. At present, NAURA's products, including 12-inch CCP etching machine, PECVD, ALD and other new types of equipment, are in the active development or verification stage, and we expect to further increase the coverage of the process.

  We expect that in 1Q23 NAURA’s new orders will increase steadily, providing guarantee for the company’s annual performance growth: 1) The localization rate of logic and storage wafer manufacturing customer equipment continues to increase; 2) SiC wafer manufacturing, substrate growth customer expansion The momentum remains unabated; 3) Photovoltaic cell customers continue to expand production.

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FairAndUnbiased

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North Huachuang (002371): The performance exceeded expectations and the profitability was quickly released​


On April 13, 2023, the company released the 2022 annual performance report and the first quarter performance forecast of 2023:

  1) 2022: the company achieved operating income of 14.688 billion yuan, +51.68% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 2.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year +118.37%; the net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-existing assets is 2.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year +161.07%; 2) 2023Q1: the company is expected to achieve operating income of 3.6-4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.56%-87.29%; the net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 5.6 ~620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.24%~200.30%; it is expected to achieve a net profit of 500 to 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 221.82%~260.44%.

1Q results exceeded expectations, and the profitability of semiconductor equipment leaders is rapidly releasing. The market share of the company's semiconductor equipment continues to increase, the electronic components business develops steadily, and its performance maintains rapid growth. Calculated by the median, the company's 2023Q1 is expected to achieve operating income of 3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year +77.92%; it is expected to realize a net profit of 590 million yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year +185.77%; +241.13%; calculated by the median, the company's 2023Q1 net interest rate attributable to the parent is 15.5%, +5.9pct year-on-year, and the company's profitability has improved significantly. Considering the expansion pace of domestic fabs and the increasing share of domestic equipment manufacturers, we believe that the company's future performance will maintain rapid growth due to the scale effect.

  Verification + order + production expansion, domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to enter the stage of rapid performance increase. In terms of equipment verification, the verification of domestic equipment is currently being steadily advanced; in terms of orders, the expansion plan of key customers is steadily advancing; in terms of production expansion, the current domestic fabs are far from meeting the independent and controllable demand. Taking SMIC as an example, 20H2 It has been disclosed so far that SMIC Jingcheng (planned production capacity of 100,000 pieces/process 28nm and above/total investment of 7.6 billion U.S. dollars) + SMIC Lingang (100,000 pieces/28nm and above/total investment of 8.87 billion U.S. dollars) + SMIC Tianjin (100,000 wafer/28~180nm/total investment of 7.5 billion US dollars), fab capital expenditure continues to rise. In terms of comprehensive verification, orders, and production expansion, we believe that domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to usher in a stage of rapid growth in performance.​
~15 billion RMB or ~2.5 billion USD is getting to top tier levels. Not quite at ASML/AMAT/LAM levels, yet, but those are S tier.

A tier companies like OntoInnovation (lithography and metrology), Veeco Instruments (best analog of NAURA, has lithography/ALD/CVD/etch) ASM International (ALD/CVD/thermal), etc are all smaller than NAURA.

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Record full year revenue of $1.005 billion grew 27% year-over-year.

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Revenue€1.7 billion (2021)
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583 million (2021)
 

tokenanalyst

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~15 billion RMB or ~2.5 billion USD is getting to top tier levels. Not quite at ASML/AMAT/LAM levels, yet, but those are S tier.

A tier companies like OntoInnovation (lithography and metrology), Veeco Instruments (best analog of NAURA, has lithography/ALD/CVD/etch) ASM International (ALD/CVD/thermal), etc are all smaller than NAURA.

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Revenue€1.7 billion (2021)
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583 million (2021)
And there still A LOT of room for growth in the coming years as the localization of equipment accelerate.
 

Wahid145

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~15 billion RMB or ~2.5 billion USD is getting to top tier levels. Not quite at ASML/AMAT/LAM levels, yet, but those are S tier.

A tier companies like OntoInnovation (lithography and metrology), Veeco Instruments (best analog of NAURA, has lithography/ALD/CVD/etch) ASM International (ALD/CVD/thermal), etc are all smaller than NAURA.

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Revenue€1.7 billion (2021)
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583 million (2021)
Cool analysis. Yes, that's why I'm very much certain Chinese SME will put Japanese SME in near future, just like LCD OLED Smartphone Home Appliance and many other industries. I'm only concerned about the achievements in Lithography machine
 

tphuang

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~15 billion RMB or ~2.5 billion USD is getting to top tier levels. Not quite at ASML/AMAT/LAM levels, yet, but those are S tier.

A tier companies like OntoInnovation (lithography and metrology), Veeco Instruments (best analog of NAURA, has lithography/ALD/CVD/etch) ASM International (ALD/CVD/thermal), etc are all smaller than NAURA.

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Revenue€1.7 billion (2021)
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583 million (2021)
I saw ASMI revenue for 2022 at 2.4B euro, so about the same level. I saw KLA revenue at over $9B.

I did some calculation, 2 more years of growth at 60% a year from $2.5B would get NAURA to $6.4B. That would seem like possible. 2 more years of 50% growth would get them to over $14B a yr. It could get to a tier 1 in 4 years I think. That would assume the capex continue to be weak in 2023 and 2024 before resuming to 20% growth a year.

Of course at that type of growth rate, AMAT/Lam/KLA/TEL/ASMI would basically be out of the Chinese market. Which if you think about it, makes sense. The only reason they are still in Chinese market is because Chinese SMEs have not ramped up production
 

FairAndUnbiased

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I saw ASMI revenue for 2022 at 2.4B euro, so about the same level. I saw KLA revenue at over $9B.

I did some calculation, 2 more years of growth at 60% a year from $2.5B would get NAURA to $6.4B. That would seem like possible. 2 more years of 50% growth would get them to over $14B a yr. It could get to a tier 1 in 4 years I think. That would assume the capex continue to be weak in 2023 and 2024 before resuming to 20% growth a year.

Of course at that type of growth rate, AMAT/Lam/KLA/TEL/ASMI would basically be out of the Chinese market. Which if you think about it, makes sense. The only reason they are still in Chinese market is because Chinese SMEs have not ramped up production
they don't necessarily need to 100% kick foreign companies out of the Chinese market. Russia and Brazil are tooling up semiconductor industries as we speak. Its all about tools. Sell the tools to Russia and Brazil with a high market share for the products they need to support their domestic industries which need analog/power/RF chips, and they will be plugged into the Chinese industrial system and serve as a tool market.

Chinese semiconductor fab market serving domestic + ASEAN is already huge, but LATAM and CSTO are hugely underserved markets that would be much better served by Brazilian and Russian fabs than by direct Chinese imports. If Russian + Brazilian semiconductor equipment market is ~$8 billion per year combined starting out with ~10 mature node fabs + $1 billion per year combined maintaining, and Chinese suppliers get ~90% of that, it takes alot of pressure off the domestic front, and I believe that Chinese suppliers can be the most cost effective for a new-build, medium volume 180 nm fab.

This will also kick in right as Chinese equipment builders get scaled up in the next 3-4 years.
 

tonyget

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I saw ASMI revenue for 2022 at 2.4B euro, so about the same level. I saw KLA revenue at over $9B.

I did some calculation, 2 more years of growth at 60% a year from $2.5B would get NAURA to $6.4B. That would seem like possible. 2 more years of 50% growth would get them to over $14B a yr. It could get to a tier 1 in 4 years I think. That would assume the capex continue to be weak in 2023 and 2024 before resuming to 20% growth a year.

Of course at that type of growth rate, AMAT/Lam/KLA/TEL/ASMI would basically be out of the Chinese market. Which if you think about it, makes sense. The only reason they are still in Chinese market is because Chinese SMEs have not ramped up production

This is top 10 semiconductor equipment manufactures ranking by revenue for 2022

11102535.jpg

NO. 10 Teradyne's 2022 revenue was $3.155B = RMB 21.6B

So Chinese companies still need time to get in top 10 ranking
 
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