Did anything of value to China arise from this?
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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IIRC ICRD has one "international" line for benchmark and one fully domestic line. This Arfi immersion 55nm should be the fully domestic line, it is the current state of the art for a 100% Chinese line.
Next step will be 28nm, or maybe they will first test on 40nm. My take is that if this Arfi SMEE machine proves enough reliable at 28nm, they can move to 28nm already within end of this year.
I meant in regards to tech, econ, or geopolitics.
I believe that there are Chinese Nationals that would say that. After all many Chinese Nationals really couldn't give a damn about developing the IC chip and semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry until Trump's Trade War, American efforts to crush Huawei, and even very likely unto Biden's stringent restrictions in October and officials efforts began to bring the Netherlands, Japan, and any other of its allies into cooperating with restrictions against China.
Hey, this is the China Semiconductor Industry Thread and the contents of that article from the Economist, whether one agrees with them or not or whether crap or not is heavy on the Chinese semiconductor industry.
I don't know who is Havok, so I can't understand why he said "光刻机是02专项独占" which literally means nobody other than 02 project receivers are allowed to work on lithography machine. It sounds rediculous.
02 project is the state found that players receive for developing the tech. There is nothing in the law or regulation forbidding any other domestic investors joining the contribution. "no large fund" could simply be due to the fact that those funds being private are not willing to take the risk because this kind of key tech isn't easy and quick money. In short, they don't want to, not they are denied to.
"Yes, hello fellow Chinese people. I too believe in the totally fair rules based order centered on DC, the liquidity and reliability of the dollar, and the peaceful values of the US military. Anyhow, do any of you fellow Chinese, who may also hold US permanent residence or citizenship, plan to or currently work in the semiconductor industry or adjacent industries? My mic- I mean, hearing, isn't so good, can you speak clearly?"
I've been thinking about this actually. We hear that SMIC has been producing 7nm chips but who has it been for? We know that Loongson is doing 12nm process and same with CAS with their RISC-V chips. Obvious answers are Hygon and Phytium, but we haven't seen any 7nm product from them. Moore Threads is also possible, but they don't have that many orders.
So the only answer I can come up with is Huawei. Both SMIC and Huawei would be incentivized to be quiet about it. Huawei has no alternatives so they would be willing to pay more for a low yielding 7nm process.
And then you if you think about the fact that Kirin chips are long spent, but there seems to be no shortage of Kunpeng or Ascend chips for Huawei's internal expansion + those mass procurement bids that they enter.
If estimate each SMIC 7nm wafer can produce 250 good server CPUs or 100 AI GPUs. If Huawei has requirement for 2 million CPUs of various types and 400k GPUs, then it would need about 8k wafers for CPUs and another 4k wafers for GPUs. 12k 7nm wafers a year should easily be doable for SMIC.
Havok said this is a getting verified at multiple places. I would be shocked if SMIC isn't validating this machine in the facility they built in Beijing for the purpose of verifying domestic tools. Given where the production level is for SMEE, they are going to be importing a large # of lithography scannersfrom ASML/Nikon for a while.
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This would require that SMIC is capable of serving its AMAT/LAM tools, since so far as I know domestic non-lithography SME's can only go to 28nm with a few tools capable of 14nm. Is there any good evidence on whether or not SMIC's 14nm line is still running? I assume if they can service those tools they can do the same for the 7nm line.
Servicing tools isn’t as hard as building them. If AMAT and LAM servicing warrantee agreements are void and they can’t find a service engineer who was laid off when the October bans came to do the work it’s not super hard to study the instrument itself and figure out which parts need replacing or tuning.
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