That's not saying much that considering that this isn't going to be an ordinary particle accelerator. SSMB is a new way of producing light that isn't like your typical synchrotron light source. It's like saying that the handheld electron gun in your CRT TV is the same as the LHC in terms of cost and complexity. It's like saying that lasers were made with 1950s tech, so a EUV laser should be difficult to build right? If SSMB was so easy, China would have built it already, instead it's still very much in the R&D phase.
All they’re doing is adding points along a synchrotron beam line where they can compress electrons into bunches to more easily boost their energy and the pulse output of their emissions frequency in a smaller physical package. Just because it’s “newer” doesn’t make it more mechanically complex than an alternative technology. New needs to be validated. That does not mean it’s mechanically harder to do. You are conflating novelty for complexity.
SSMB *is* in general pretty easy compared to plasma produced light sources. But it’s also an idea that only came about in 2017. LPP and other plasma generated light sources were conceived of in the 90s and it basically took 20 years to get to a product that worked and 30 years to get to a product good enough for commercial use. If SSMB development finished in 2027 it would only have taken a third that time, and in prototyping they’re already hitting power that is greater than current and even future planned plasma
produced light sources. What matters most here for gauging development though is not “easy” in conceptual terms but the mechanical complexity of the physical device. There are *a lot* of mechanical steps and functions in plasma based light source with a lot of different moving parts which translates to a lot of interaction points that need to be working together to work well, and as a result there is a *lot* of potential fail modes. This is the sort of thing that drags out the development process in R&D, because you have to test all these different interaction points. A synchrotron is already inherently way simpler in mechanical terms and all SSMB does is add a few extra stages and parts to the storage ring which themselves have rather straightforward and simpler mechanical function.
Leading edge nodes are already expensive as fuck and not all too economical because of it. SMIC can already produce 7nm and 5nm chips with DUV, it's not economical compared to EUV due to the multi-patterning needed and low yield issues. If costs weren't an issue, they would just buy hundreds of 2050i, build dozens of new fabs and flood the market with 7nm and 5nm chips. No need for EUV.
Is SSMB going to be viable if it cost 800 million to build instead of 150 million for ASML EUV? Or if it needs round the clock maintenance and a team of PHDs to keep it running? Anyway, it might not be for export, but transportation is still important to keep costs down, since you can build and assemble the machines in an factory, dozens of them at the same time, and ship it to an existing fab once it's done. With SSMB, looks like you're gonna to need to build the machine first on site than build a new fab around this machine instead.
And Lol at saying that because it's bigger doesn't means it's harder. So the LHC is the same complexity as a handheld particle accelerator is it? A future particle accelerator that's hundreds of kilometers in circumference isn't going to be more complex than the LHC? Anyway, it's an new idea, SSMB doesn't work like normal synchrotrons or FELs. It's an new method of generating light will need a specially built synchrotron for it to work from the sounds of things.
Where did you get this number? SSMB is still very much in the R&D phase, there's no way you're gonna get a cost estimate this early.
The chart we just got suggests a device will be at most 1 billion RMB, or about 150 million USD. 数亿到10亿 translates to x00,000,000 to 1,000,000,000
But direct price to price comparisons between two devices isn’t what matters for gauging cost efficiency. Total power per dollar, and even more specifically, wafers per hour per dollar, is what determines true cost efficiency for a production machine. If they’re generating 1000 watts of light with one SSMB unit for the same price as an ASML LPP instrument generating 250 watts, it’s frankly speaking a no brainer to go with SSMB on the cost front. *IF* they are able to reduce half the light loss with simpler optics design (which would actually make a lot of sense since plasma generated light is not coherent or in phase which means you have to do a lot more focusing to control beam path and scatter profile, while a synchrotron based source would be coherent and in phase, and thus *much easier* to focus and direct beam path with less loss) this would not be a 4x improvement in capability but an 8x improvement.
Is this cost believable? Actually, it’s quite believable. Particle accelerator costs scale based on the size of the device. The bigger the device the greater the cost. This is because the mechanical principles are quite straightforward. For X amount of acceleration you can do with a particle, you will get X amount of energy. The more powerful your linear motors (magnets!) the more powerful your acceleration and the less distance you need to get to the same energy. If you want more energy before you harvest it for whatever you want to do you need to continuously accelerate it for longer distances or with more powerful linear motors, or often both. The costs scale linearly to how long you need your accelerator to be to get to your target beam energy, and non linearly to how powerful/expensive your linear motors are (drive magnets have gotten more powerful over time). The traditional particle accelerator approach is expensive and impractical for industrial production of chips *because* getting enough output out of a device that could be productive enough for a commercial industrial production process requires a very large and very powerful device. SSMB is promising *because* it substantially mitigates those size and power scaling factors. It does this by adding intermittent stages that feed the particle beam with RF/laser energy along the path of the accelerator to boost the energy of the beam, adding one additional method to feed energy to the particle beam other than the linear motors. Using a RF/laser feeding mechanism to boost particle beam power wasn’t very meaningful until they figured out the bunching technique because the particle beam doesn’t pick up that energy from the RF/Laser source very efficiently unless the beam interacts with the feed source in phase (an effect of quantum mechanics). The bunching method is what allows them to use this new power feeding method. Adding these booster stages into a smaller device is going to be *much* cheaper than building a much larger device with much greater construction and material costs, especially since the technology of the booster stages themselves aren’t mechanically complex or novel. They’re just run of the mill extra lasers/RF emitters.
That’s what’s likely behind those cost estimates. They’re believable cost reduction factors, and more to the point, there wouldn’t be funding to pursue this approach if there were no perceived benefits, and if I recall correctly cost efficiency has already been cited by the proponents of this technology as one them.
The LHC’s design for the record is not *that* complex. The engineering challenges for the LHC were from the massive physical scale of the device, not from functional complexity. To get to the energies the LHC targeted without building an even larger device which meant even more massive construction costs (literally the same kind of construction costs as building a subway line) they opted to use superconducting magnets to drive up the power of their linear motors. It *is* very expensive, but that’s because it’s a massive device spanning 27 kms. You literally need a transit system to get around its facilities. You are never going to need such a large amount of space, construction demand, or superconducting magnets and the municipality level power supply to drive them with an industrial use particle accelerator, even if it’s something new like SSMB. If you think the LHC is an appropriate reference point to make your point then you’re basing your judgements on hype, not a functional understanding of physics and engineering.
(Also, the entire if it were so simple why didn’t they already do it logic is kind of like saying wheels are simple why did it take till 4000 BC to invent them. Things can be mechanically simple and very obvious in retrospect but that doesn’t mean that they were obvious before you conceived of their idea. Half of science and research is really just about discovering the obvious).