Chinese semiconductor industry

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HighGround

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I don't think is a big deal for ASML, probably is just generic data. They could have bigger problems if the Chinese goverment decide not to enforce the extensive ASML EUV patent portfolio in China, which they use to gatekeep every other company out of the EUV market given the fact that ASML is not allowed to sell their EUV tools in China. They even stated something like that in their reports.

ASML can't count on the idea that China will take X amount of time to develop their own EUVL tools also given the fact that they had almost two decades of experience developing EUV related technologies and breakthroughs, believe or not, can happen sooner than most people expect when there is economic pressure.

ASML best weapon to keep their monopolistic position is to sell were the competition, present and future, exist. They get to outcompete everyone, they get to make friends, process are designed exclusive for their tools and the get to enforce their extensive IP portfolio in a more efficient way.​
Well that depends on how long it'll take China to develop and mass produce an EUV machine. SMEE's 28 nm machine is still not in mass production, or am I wrong?
 

zuiquanmonk

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Well that depends on how long it'll take China to develop and mass produce an EUV machine. SMEE's 28 nm machine is still not in mass production, or am I wrong?

Is China able to make 90nm machines currently? If so they can already supply Russia. A lot of the latest Elbrus chips are 90nm ones.
 

staplez

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Yes sure, that's fine.

But what I'm more interested in is in how fast can China break Western monopoly on the semiconductor supply chain.
So I've been following this whole thing here for a while. Apparently the 28nm is finalized and is in verification testing. So basically companies like Hua Hong have it and are making sure it can do the volume and accuracy for mass production. Once this is complete, they'll going into mass production. It seems however, there are a few kinks since it's been a few months since that was reported.
 

HighGround

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So I've been following this whole thing here for a while. Apparently the 28nm is finalized and is in verification testing. So basically companies like Hua Hong have it and are making sure it can do the volume and accuracy for mass production. Once this is complete, they'll going into mass production. It seems however, there are a few kinks since it's been a few months since that was reported.
I've been getting that sense as well. I'm eager to see what becomes of it and how well the machine performs.

Japan's and Dutch DUV offerings are extremely advanced. They are also very profitable machines, from what I understand. Don't forget, that this is all a far-cry from EUV as well. ASML is already on their 2nd gen EUV machine. We'll see how fast China can catch up.
 

ansy1968

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I don't think is a big deal for ASML, probably is just generic data. They could have bigger problems if the Chinese goverment decide not to enforce the extensive ASML EUV patent portfolio in China, which they use to gatekeep every other company out of the EUV market given the fact that ASML is not allowed to sell their EUV tools in China. They even stated something like that in their reports.

ASML can't count on the idea that China will take X amount of time to develop their own EUVL tools also given the fact that they had almost two decades of experience developing EUV related technologies and breakthroughs, believe or not, can happen sooner than most people expect when there is economic pressure.

ASML best weapon to keep their monopolistic position is to sell were the competition, present and future, exist. They get to outcompete everyone, they get to make friends, process are designed exclusive for their tools and the get to enforce their extensive IP portfolio in a more efficient way.​
Bro there is something fishy about that report, maybe an admission that SSA800 DUVL will be officially introduces this year and a possible working working EUVL in 2024?
 

staplez

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Bro there is something fishy about that report, maybe an admission that SSA800 DUVL will be officially introduces this year and a possible working working EUVL in 2024?
So SMEE does not appear to be working on EUV equipment yet. Huawei on the other hand has a patent released for an EUV machine. SMEE believes they will have both their DUV dry and DUV immersion ready by the end of this year. Since they were working on both in parallel according to Havok. Though all these timelines are hard to say. People mostly think Huawei won't have that EUV ready until 2025, but no one really knows for sure.
 

tphuang

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Looks like Shanghai Sinyang has been doing some Q&A and there are interesting answers here
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投资者在投资者互动平台提问:公司验证的Arf光刻胶是用在多少制程工艺的?

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(300236.SZ)2月16日在投资者互动平台表示,ArF光刻胶可用于90nm-14nm 甚至 7nm 技术节点的集成电路制造工艺
This is interesting. The Arf photoresist that's getting verified by customers is capable of being used in 7nm process.

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上海新阳在投资者互动平台就“问上海本部、合肥基地半导体光刻胶产能各多少?”等问询问题表示,目前两基地光刻胶规划年产能1000多吨。

据披露,上海新阳去年二月与合肥新站高新技术产业开发区管委会签署了《投资合作协议书》,就公司在合肥新站高新技术产业开发区管委会辖区内投资建设公司第二生产基地二期项目达成协议,该项目总投资约3.2亿元人民币,占地40亩,主要从事芯片清洗液、研磨液系列等集成电路关键工艺化学材料产品的研发、生产和销售。

上述项目满产后年产值约5亿元。预计于2024年实现量产,2030年实现满产。项目预计年综合能源消费量约2600吨标准煤当量
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投资者:公司在2022-03-21互动平台光刻胶规划产能513吨,去年KrF光刻胶持续量产。请问:这513吨半导体光刻胶产能同最近上海化学工业区规划500吨光刻胶项目两码事?

上海新阳董秘:尊敬的投资者:你好!该产能为公司本部的设计产能。

投资者:您好,请问公司的KRF光刻胶跟海外竞品的差距?能否起到进口替代?

上海新阳董秘:尊敬的投资者:你好!公司KrF光刻胶已经销售,可以进口替代。
So between Shanghai base and Hefei base, they believe they can reach 1000t of photoresist a year by end of this decade. That seems a lot. Earlier this thread, I saw the post that says they only have 50t of photoresist capacity right now. This would 20x their production.

They are saying here that Krf is already getting sold and replacing imports.

For others, what is the leading photoresist producer producing per year? Is 1000t a year a lot? @tokenanalyst @FairAndUnbiased

投资者:合肥一期1.7万吨新产能是否完成设备调试,一季度能否投产?

上海新阳董秘:尊敬的投资者:你好!合肥新阳一季度尚不能投产。
Looks like Hefei's plant has yet to enter production. Maybe they are experiencing equipment delays or maybe they are waiting on validation.

投资者:请问:最近上海化学工业区项目中年产10000吨光刻胶稀释剂这个产品是否为公司已经量产产品,还是已经完成开发的新产品?

上海新阳董秘:尊敬的投资:你好!该产品属于光刻胶配套试剂产品,公司已开发该产品
looks like the reported 10k ton of photoresist thinner material is for photoresist re-agent material.


投资者:请问上海新阳本部产能1.9万吨还未满产,合肥基地一期产能1.7万吨还未四季度如期投产,二期还在建设。公司情人节再披露投资上海化学工业园3万吨。市场需求增幅有这么大吗?

上海新阳董秘:尊敬的投者:你好!具体市场规模数据请关注行业报告。感谢对公司的关注。
people are questioning about their huge expansion plans, I guess they are quite ambitious. Considering that 90% of this is imported (IIRC), a lot of room for growth here.
 
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