Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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This is the last chance for the US to block all possible ways for China to grow its semicon enterprises.
Fortunately China has accumulated enough equipment to last for at least 2-3 years which is sufficient to develop new and improved domestic equipment by 2024/5. Furthermore, there was a mention on twitter by a guy Shank Hu that China now has its own tech to make <5nm chips. We shall see in 3 yrs time, max.
Wow, I can't believe its been 18 months since I wrote that article. on Applied and Lam on NAND.
I just published another article tonight on China semi that is for my subscribers only but will be online later in the week. Here is the title and bullets:
U.S. Sanctions Are A Catalyst For China’s New Semiconductor Fab Expansion
Dec. 18, 2022 9:05 PM ET, ,Summary
- Current Chinese fab expansions through 2025 will add just 6% to the overall global semiconductor capacity with a $68 billion fab spend.
- Current 28nm fab expansions will only increase global capacity 4% despite sanctions.
- A recent Reuters article of a $142 billion Chinese fab spend and a subsequent suggestion of flooding of the low-end chip market is not based on reality.
- U.S. sanctions are minimally working, but only serve as a catalyst for China to promote its drive for self-sufficiency in chip making.
- Applied Materials is the greatest loser from sanctions as its YTD growth is 8.7% compared to its competitors' mean growth of 62.8%.
I was looking at YMTC's fab with Sentinel-2 satellite photos from this month. It looks like they topped off Fab 2.
Compare with how the Fab 1, 2 look like on Baidu maps with an image from several months ago.
And this is how it looks like on Google maps with only Fab 1 visible on even older photos.
Compare with how the Fab 1, 2 look like on Baidu maps with an image from several months ago.
And this is how it looks like on Google maps with only Fab 1 visible on even older photos.
"Nursery plant"I was looking at YMTC's fab with Sentinel-2 satellite photos from this month. It looks like they topped off Fab 2.
View attachment 103593
Compare with how the Fab 1, 2 look like on Baidu maps with an image from several months ago.
And this is how it looks like on Google maps with only Fab 1 visible on even older photos.
Strategic fooyou agency strikes again
There is one Chinese company that will launch a series of X-ray metrology tools for 3DNand in the coming months. Probably already working hard to get their tools validated.
Hurun list of the 2030s might be filled with Semiconductors equipment bosses. What a decade.
Having said that, even if China managed to have a complete and total supply chain inside the border. Do you think US & co just say "ggwp" and move on? Nah, I'm pretty sure deranged minds won't stay still. What else can they use to attack? Software? Global financial access?
Thank you for what you do, providing clear and fact-based analysis that cuts through the usual rhetoric
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