Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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Weaasel said:
The Dutch and ASML CANNOT prevent China from domestically developing and producing DUV and EUV lithography machines that eventually replicate the capabilities of those of ASML.
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They cannot prevent but they can suppress by taking over the Chinese market by filling the demand gap faster than any competition and creating a indispensable situation. For example let suppose an company in China made a 70 WPH LowNA EUV machine a pretty reasonable price, in the absent of ASML EUV that machine will be very attractive for some companies in China and few years-iterations later they will have a pretty competitive machine after a positive feedback loop. But before that happens, export controls are dropped and ASML goes there and market a 150 WPH EUV machine, an offer too good to reject, all the suddenly China EUV machine is less attractive and of course Chinese liberals and industrialists will be first to jump, arguing about "Free Markets" "fair competition", because we all know how fair it was when the US used their export controls.

That is one of the reasons why TSMC opened a fab in China, to take clients from SMIC and to make sure that SMIC didn't get too big.

in 2017 SMEE announced the immersion project and UPrecision delivered their first dry dual wafer stage.
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All the sudden ASML was kind to help SMEE with their packaging lithography business.

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FriedButter

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The current US is not the same US 10-20 years ago. The whole “free market” and “globalization” has been canned in favor of a scorched earth policy, which won’t change regardless who becomes president. Maybe ASML will be allowed to send EUVs into China when it’s the 2050s. There is next to zero chance relations are improving in the short to mid terms now that the US is shifting towards confrontation with China.
 
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tokenanalyst

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FriedButter said:
The current US is not the same US 10-20 years ago. The whole “free market” and “globalization” has been canned in favor of a scorched earth policy, which won’t change regardless who becomes president. Maybe ASML will be allowed to send EUVs into China when it’s the 2050s. There is next to zero chance relations are improving in the short to mid terms now that the US is shifting towards confrontation with China.
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They only reason why the bully Americans can do this is because China, Chinese manufacturing companies and design companies allowed their tool manufacturers to become weak, in my personal opinion given how susceptible China was to export controls, it should have never been a free market, but I digress. If China toolmakers were stronger and had a bigger market share at least inside China, I pretty convinced that the clowns in DC would think twice before doing clownish things. Even Trump.
Like, you think if China had an EUV machine, even one that can only do 50 300mm WPH, you think that EUV would had been banned?
 
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european_guy

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tokenanalyst said:
They only reason why the bully Americans can do this is because China, Chinese manufacturing companies and design companies allowed their tool manufacturers to become weak, in my personal opinion given how susceptible China was to export controls, it should have never been a free market, but I digress. If China toolmakers were stronger and had a bigger market share at least inside China, I pretty convinced that the clowns in DC would think twice before doing clownish things. Even Trump.
Like, you think if China had an EUV machine, even one that can only do 50 300mm WPH, you think that EUV would had been banned?
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Now is 2022. Many things changed in the last 10 years.

In 2012 China decided to move up from "factory of the world" to fully developed nation, climbing the very long and steep technology-independence ladder.

In 2016 during Obama administration, US began to realize that something was going wrong with China.

In 2018 Trump bit the bullet and started a trade war that soon became tech war, abruptly "bombing" Huawei in what was a true Pearl Harbour moment.

In 2020 Biden replaced Trump, but foreign policy toward China didn't change, actually it became even more aggressive and confrontational.

Today in 2022 we are in full tech war, and US is still ramping up the actions to contain and slow down China. They will further escalate in scope and aggressiveness in the future. Everybody knows this.

During these 10 years China didn't remain still, but the real change in focus and determination occurred only after the Huawei case, in 2019. Until then China didn't look at semiconductor localization as a very critical and very urgent national security issue, as it is now considered.

Now localization is in full swing, but it will take some more years to become fully effective. In the meantime China will have to face strong headwinds.
 
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antonius123

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According to this, China is still struggling with domestic equipment maker due to dependency on foreign component

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Orders rise in short term, but domestic suppliers lag in supporting advanced semiconductor technology


It seems a gloom situation not only for YMTC and CXMT, I thought domestic equipment maker is already strong enough except the lithography..
 
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tokenanalyst

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antonius123 said:
According to this, China is still struggling with domestic equipment maker due to dependency on foreign component

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Orders rise in short term, but domestic suppliers lag in supporting advanced semiconductor technology


It seems a gloom situation not only for YMTC and CXMT, I thought domestic equipment maker is already strong enough except the lithography..
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They are growing faster than ever. More than 50% in some cases. So I would take whatever the FT says with a truck load of salt. There are still some technical gaps that need to filled but those will be filled eventually.

laoyaoba.com is better for China semiconductor related news than US MSM,
 
olalavn

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antonius123 said:
According to this, China is still struggling with domestic equipment maker due to dependency on foreign component

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Orders rise in short term, but domestic suppliers lag in supporting advanced semiconductor technology


It seems a gloom situation not only for YMTC and CXMT, I thought domestic equipment maker is already strong enough except the lithography..
Click to expand...
the acceptance and testing time of China domestic DUV lithography machine will be about half a year- 1 year... from 2023-2024, we will see how many DUV release... and from 2025- 2027 China has almost everything it wants, including the 3nm process...
 
PopularScience

PopularScience

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antonius123 said:
According to this, China is still struggling with domestic equipment maker due to dependency on foreign component

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Orders rise in short term, but domestic suppliers lag in supporting advanced semiconductor technology


It seems a gloom situation not only for YMTC and CXMT, I thought domestic equipment maker is already strong enough except the lithography..
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domestic component is not weak. Look at this company that supplying AMAT.

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Overbom

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antonius123 said:
According to this, China is still struggling with domestic equipment maker due to dependency on foreign component

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Orders rise in short term, but domestic suppliers lag in supporting advanced semiconductor technology


It seems a gloom situation not only for YMTC and CXMT, I thought domestic equipment maker is already strong enough except the lithography..
Click to expand...
All (serious) semiconductor equipment companies are either growing by >100% or high 2-digits figures. Need time to scale up production and R&D activities
 
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