Chinese semiconductor industry

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hvpc

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Sorry to disappoint those that believed in fake-news about low utilization at tsmc.
Just as I expected, tsmc had the best monthly result last month.
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Foundries typically have good visibility of their operations within 3-4months. So, when tsmc forecast Q4 revenue to be same or slightly higher than Q3, we shouldn’t doubt it.

From my vantage point, there is slight chance tsmc fab utilization may take small hit in Q1 ‘23. That’s what I see from talking to people familiar with their tape out situation. but it’s also likely tsmc may be able to bring in new business in the next few months to fill the ‘excess’ capacity in Q1.

So, basically, worse case for tsmc is their Q1 '23 utilization drops. But more likely tsmc's sales team do their magic and tsmc Q1 '23 remain flat or up compared to Q4 '22.
 
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tphuang

tphuang

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hvpc said:
Sorry to disappoint those that believed in fake-news about low utilization at tsmc.
Just as I expected, tsmc had the best monthly result last month.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


foundries have good visibility of their operations within 3-4minths. When tsmc last shared that they forecast Q4 revenue to be same or slightly higher than Q3, we shouldn’t doubt it.

from my vantage point, there is slight chance tsmc fab utilization may take small hit in Q1 ‘23. That’s what I see from talking to people familiar with their tape out situation. but it’s also likely tsmc may be able to bring in new business in the next few months to fill the ‘excess’ capacity in Q1.

people I talked to in Arizona earlier this week are quite optimistic about the semiconductor industry’s mid to long term growth…consistent with prediction of industry analysts.
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that just shows their revenue. It does not refute the claims made by some news outlet that 6/7 nm utilization is going down. Given that TSMC has been adding a lot of capacity and that it's shifting production to more higher revenue 3/5 nm process, it's not a surprise their revenue is going up. If you actually have proof that 6/7 nm utilization is not going down, please show that.

These people you talk to a certainly an optimistic type, but let's see where the world wide economy is in a few months time.
 
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hvpc

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tphuang said:
that just shows their revenue. It does not refute the claims made by some news outlet that 6/7 nm utilization is going down. Given that TSMC has been adding a lot of capacity and that it's shifting production to more higher revenue 3/5 nm process, it's not a surprise their revenue is going up.
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not a surprise to you. but you certainly didn't share this view when everyone was gloating and thinking tsmc will be impacted negatively by the dire situation with 7nm demand.
tphuang said:
If you actually have proof that 6/7 nm utilization is not going down, please show that.
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tsmc 7nm utilization was indeed down. But everyone on SDF, except for you, I guess, was making it look like tsmc is in trouble.
tphuang said:
These people you talk to a certainly an optimistic type, but let's see where the world wide economy is in a few months time.
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I don't think the people I talked to in the industry is optimistic. I think those of you here on SDF are pessimistic. The short term headwind is recognized by all. In fact, we had been anticipating as far back as 2021 on a slow down in the memory segments in 2022. What you see now is not a surprise.
 
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tokenanalyst

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tphuang

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hvpc said:
not a surprise to you. but you certainly didn't share this view when everyone was gloating and thinking tsmc will be impacted negatively by the dire situation with 7nm demand.

tsmc 7nm utilization was indeed down. But everyone on SDF, except for you, I guess, was making it look like tsmc is in trouble.

I don't think the people I talked to in the industry is optimistic. I think those of you here on SDF are pessimistic. The short term headwind is recognized by all. In fact, we had been anticipating as far back as 2021 on a slow down in the memory segments in 2022. What you see now is not a surprise.
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Well it was just mainly ansy. I am long term bear on tsmc, but that's more because I think smic will be producing more of china's high end chip requirements in a few years. My tsmc pessimism outlook is not in the immediate.
 
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european_guy

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tphuang said:
Well it was just mainly ansy. I am long term bear on tsmc, but that's more because I think smic will be producing more of china's high end chip requirements in a few years. My tsmc pessimism outlook is not in the immediate.
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TSMC mid-far future can go in either way.

IMO it will sensibly depend on both Taiwan and US political elections in 2024. If there will be a government change in Taiwan, many things can change.

Anyhow it is very difficult to speculate, it would be already difficult for a normal company, but for a Taiwanese, highly-startegic company like TSMC is practically impossible to know what will be 5 years form now....it is easier to foresee for China than for TSMC.
 
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Franklin

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tphuang said:
This same Dutch media back in October said ASML would not be able to service Chinese clients after the American sanctions. And then ASML came out and said the sanctions didn't affect them.

At this point, most of us think Dutch gov't will put some kind of formal restrictions. Whoever, the impact of China's semiconductor industry could be minimal to a year or two of set back depending on the details and implementation. As we discussed earlier, Arfi scanners that are ideal for 28 nm process can also be used for 14 nm process. What is going to be blocked and what won't be blocked? American parts in Arfi scanners could be replaced by non-American parts. Is restriction just toward any machine that has American parts? We don't know. How is the implementation going to be done? Is it going to be immediate or will there be a grace period where orders that have already received advanced payments will be carried out? Are they going to be smart and make it based on the progress of Chinese competition or will they do blanket ban like the Americans and just leave the entire market to competition? There are all these details that can be slight inconvenience to delaying certain SMIC or YMTC fab by a year or two while they wait to tune domestic scanners to work with their processes.

Without details, this just ends up being a pointless circular argument of Chinese grievance, positive thinking and attacking Dutch as American vassals. You can see why this is not productive for this thread.
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But the Dutch are American vassals. I live here and its very unfortunate. The Dutch (and other European countries too) have towed the line on American foreign policy for decades. Russia, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, etc you name it. I can't remember a foreign policy issue that the Dutch went against America. They even towed the line on the Iraq War.

Whenever there is discussion about America in the media they never talk about "national interest" but always talk about "the transatlantic interest".

There are even people here who openly say on television that the Netherlands is a outpost of the American Empire! Without any controversy or protest.
 
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