Sir, I experience the same BUT the info came from @Oldschool , a mentor I truly respected. Sir here I have a Chinese article that I got hold of since Thursday, It's good that Beijingwalker from PDF had posted it and I want to share with you and want your opinion.
From my recollection of the 3 core tech for EUVL, CAS and other Chinese scientific institution had successfully tackled 2 of the 3 except for the power source as the DPP is found inadequate. With recent reports of successful breakthrough in LPP and even a possible SSBM, we may say a viable Chinese EUVL is possible within 2024/2025 timeframe.
So regarding @hans_r post is correct, a possible ASML ban is much ado about nothing.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences breaks through EUV technology, and the price of ASML lithography machine is urgently reduced. Will China Core welcome a century of change?
2022-11-20 11:07 HKTBreakthrough in EUV progress
Manufacturing is the foundation, and chip manufacturing is the top priority in the global semiconductor industry. With TSMC mastering advanced chip manufacturing technology, Samsung is firmly in the leading position, but almost all of the chip equipment produced by the two comes from the Dutch ASML company. Especially for EUV lithography machines, apart from ASML, no second company can provide it.
EUV lithography machine is the core equipment for manufacturing high-end chips. For chip process processes of 7nm and below, EUV lithography machines are required to ensure production and guarantee the yield of chips. However, foreign countries are not allowed to export such advanced equipment to mainland China.
Under the obstacle of the United States, even if ASML wants to do business in the EUV lithography machine market in China, it has more than enough energy, because 90% of the advanced components of EUV lithography machines are imported by ASML from abroad. These technologies are in the hands of foreign countries, including a large number of American technologies, and ASML cannot smoothly ship to specific customer markets.
Therefore, China must develop its own technology to achieve self-sufficiency. Regarding the research and development of EUV lithography machines, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has also broken through EUV technology and has made certain research progress in light source systems. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has publicly announced that it will enter the lithography machine to solve key problems in technical fields such as lithography machines.
In addition, Shanghai Microelectronics also has in-depth deployment of 28nm, and there is news from the industry that it will deliver a 28nm lithography machine by the end of 2021. If you add Tsinghua University's SSMB light source research, it can also be applied in the field of high-end EUV lithography machines.
ASML starts to move
From a variety of perspectives, China is fully researching lithography machine technology, whether it is 28nm of mature process or EUV lithography machine of high-end process, it has not given up.
As long as you persist, you will be able to usher in rewards. Once China becomes self-sufficient in lithography machines, I am afraid it will not need to rely on foreign imports. But in the face of such a large semiconductor market in China, will ASML be willing to lose it? The answer is no.
ASML has been participating in the development of the Chinese market and has established cooperative relationships with many mainland chip manufacturers. Except for the EUV lithography machine, the rest of the equipment can be shipped smoothly to mainland China. Since EUV lithography machines cannot be sold to mainland China, increase shipments of mature technology or mid-end lithography machines.
Among them, ASML urgently reduced the price of the 28nm process lithography machine. The purpose of this is probably to occupy the domestic chip supply chain production line before the domestic lithography machine is mass-produced. On the one hand, ASML lithography machines have better quality assurance, and there will inevitably be a large number of corporate purchases after the price is reduced.
On the other hand, domestic lithography machines can be the first to enter the production line. Will domestic companies choose cheap and stable ASML lithography machines, or will they purchase domestic lithography machines that have just been mass-produced and whose yield is not clear? The answer is clear.
The best moment for China Chip
ASML is playing a big game, trying to seize the Chinese market share with cheaper lithography machines. But ASML may be disappointed. Chinese lithography machines and Chinese chips will be replaced sooner or later, and a comprehensive breakthrough in independent technology will be achieved. A series of good news keep coming. The industry believes that domestic 28nm and 14nm chips will be mass-produced by the end of this year and next year.
The domestic 28nm lithography machine will finally usher in the day of delivery. It can be seen that China Core will usher in a century of change. Under external pressure, China Core has accelerated its growth rate instead.
This may be the best moment for China Chip. Never in history has it made significant progress in many semiconductor fields such as chip talents, equipment, manufacturing processes, and materials at the same time.
ASML said that if the lithography machine is not sold to China, China will break through this technology within three years. This may also be the reason why ASML has to urgently reduce the price of lithography machines, and no longer sell lithography machines to China. With China's breakthroughs in a series of technologies, replacing ASML and achieving self-sufficiency is not unattainable.
to sum up
The lithography machine is known as the crown in the history of human industry. It may not be realistic to achieve the mass production level of ASML's EUV lithography machine in the short term. However, China's lithography opportunities continue to accumulate. The entry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the research of Tsinghua University and the complete equipment of Shanghai Microelectronics are all strong back-ups for domestic lithography machines.
China Chip is undergoing a century of change, and the lithography machine will also usher in a huge breakthrough. We look forward to making more progress with the efforts of domestic researchers.
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