Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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No, the best China can hope for is to have its devices ready at scale. Enough of this "will they, won't they" BS.
Thanks for posting this. If the issue is just FPDR rules (lowering it to 1%), then I think there is a good chance ASML can work out a Arfi scanners that's completely free of American components. Maybe the quality wouldn't be 2100i level, but it will still be better than SMEE Arfi scanners (most likely).
I think if the Biden admin had waited until after the Ukraine war started and appealed to the Atlantists in Europe, they might have succeeded. However, it looks like they've been bullying Dutch gov't for two years. Nobody likes to be bullied. The Chinese reaction so far of not overreacting has probably helped them also. I'm sure ASML has tremendous clout with the Dutch gov't. If I were the Chinese gov't, I would just let the Dutch gov't know of how far SMEE has already progressed so that they know how stupid it would be to keep ASML from competing in the Chinese market.
I still think the Dutch gov't is likely to put some export restrictions, but it likely won't go as far as the American gov't want.
I don't necessarily agree with that. The head of "02 project" recently explained this quite well. China is looking to create a new ecosystem that's not subject to US sanctions. It wants to cooperate with rest of the world. As such, even when SMEE is comfortably producing 100 DUVs a year, there is still a place in the Chinese market for ASML. As such, it doesn't want to be banned by anyone else. It's actually quite insulting.
Well, Chinese fabs need to work with ASML to figure out which US origin parts do not have alternatives and find Chinese alternatives then. They got a 1500 people office now (larger than SMEE head count). That's plenty of R&D resources.
I would be more surprised with Japanese gov't folding than with Dutch gov't. There are so many more ways China can punish Japan than Netherlands. And the Japanese economy is crumbling as we speak. Even in the articles we've read, anonymous Japanese officials seem far more dismissive of American threats than Dutch officials.
Also, there is no reason for me to think that Nikon would be able to better supply the Chinese market than SMEE in a year's time.
Is it because Nikon did budget cuts?
I'm not optimistic that Netherland can hold her position for too long under the US pressure. That much is clear you can read between the lines here and elsewhere. The real point of contention is when and how and to what extent the export controls will be implemented.
Still, I would give some props to Netherland and the lady, for standing for their own sovereignty and national interest, at least for now and saying what she said above. It's been rare in a continent full of Ursula von der Leyen and Annalena Baerbock and the likes. After all, Netherland is a small nation of 17 million people.
Anything in theory is replaceable. If it’s easy I’m sure ASML would have done so already.
It would take lots of money and time for ASML to move its Connecticut factory out of the US to eliminate the significant module/parts I was referring to.
I agree with you.
It’s more likely the Dutch government ban sales of the most advanced immersion system and any new models that come after it to appease the American. Then insist on continuing to sell the the older models like NXT1980 and NXT2000 to China.
NXT1980 was designed and released to serve 10nm logic and 18nm DRAM. So I would guess NXT1980 or 2000 cut-off to be reasonable. But I’m sure the Americans would prefer to set limit to the NXT1980 in liu of a complete ban on all immersion systems.
One could argue that the Dutch government has to resist the pressure from the US government as a negotiation strategy, both to win more room from the US AND to demonstrate to the Chinese government that I have done my best, in order to minimize any potential fallouts from the upcoming export controls.
Chinese government and companies should also view this as an opportunity to negotiate for more flexible implementation of the inevitable export controls: 1) a grace period for the Chinese companies to import more of the most advanced DUVs that will be banned for export and 2) continue to provide after-sale service and spare parts for all the lithography machines sold to Chinese companies.
In the end, China will rely on herself, that is, faster development of DUV machines and then EUV lithography machines. You control your own destiny, not relying on any foreign countries or suppliers for such strategically important technologies.
No. Even if it’s easy you need to test the replacements at the system level before you ship, which means you first need to do a business calculation of whether it’s worth the resources and time devoted to testing.
Which part are you referring to exactly?
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