Chinese semiconductor industry

weig2000 said:

I'm not optimistic that Netherland can hold her position for too long under the US pressure. That much is clear you can read between the lines here and elsewhere. The real point of contention is when and how and to what extent the export controls will be implemented.

Still, I would give some props to Netherland and the lady, for standing for their own sovereignty and national interest, at least for now and saying what she said above. It's been rare in a continent full of Ursula von der Leyen and Annalena Baerbock and the likes. After all, Netherland is a small nation of 17 million people.

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I wouldn't be surprised if they are just buying time to keep earning money and to extract a better deal from the US, i think they will keep doing it till end of next year(2023) so the US will give us a better deal, also Biden needs to have something to show for in the dems 2024 election campaign. I wouldn't be surprised if the election 2024 is also the reason the US gave South Korean Companies one year amnesty for semi export to China.

In 2024~2025 China might have created enough supply of domestic machinery that blocking ASML DUV will be useless and ASML can keep on selling at least 10~14nm machines.

tphuang said:

I don't necessarily agree with that. The head of "02 project" recently explained this quite well. China is looking to create a new ecosystem that's not subject to US sanctions. It wants to cooperate with rest of the world. As such, even when SMEE is comfortably producing 100 DUVs a year, there is still a place in the Chinese market for ASML. As such, it doesn't want to be banned by anyone else. It's actually quite insulting.

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Actually I agree with you that you do not necessarily agree with me.

It is just the language I used, and I was vague.

To be more specific, China should definitely 100% committed to developing its own internal IC market, regardless of the outside world.

However, the door should always remain open. Even with 100% commitment to go do it alone, it does not mean Chinese IC will be 100% domestic, it does not mean there is no role for others. But that is ultimately a choice for others to make. Without the ideology involved, then it is a no-brainer decision.

At this point, this is where the game gets interesting.

China is 100% committed to develop IC internally.

Other players, if they want to be a part of the Chinese IC market, must make a solid commitment to that end. What if they cannot? For whatever reasons.

Then, in that case, China was fully 100% committed to their IC industry.

Time is running out for people to choose.

If the Americans do not force people to choose politically, Chinese advances in tech will make people choose regardless.

The smaller countries are literally getting squeezed by both ends.

American with their politics. China with better tech, forces others to sell their better tech, which the Americans do not allow if they can help it.

What the Americans say is not interesting. They always say the same thing. What the smaller countries say is interesting, because they are squirming.

hvpc said:

I agree with you.

It’s more likely the Dutch government ban sales of the most advanced immersion system and any new models that come after it to appease the American. Then insist on continuing to sell the the older models like NXT1980 and NXT2000 to China.


NXT1980 was designed and released to serve 10nm logic and 18nm DRAM. So I would guess NXT1980 or 2000 cut-off to be reasonable. But I’m sure the Americans would prefer to set limit to the NXT1980 in liu of a complete ban on all immersion systems.

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Then Sir ASML loss the China market, NXT 1980i is analogous to SMEE SSA800 28NM DUVL, then better go local which is cheaper with less hassle than importing one.

My view NXT 2100i is being design and produce for the Chinese market, NO if NO but about it, anything lower is a vanity import. I believe within a year or two a mythical SSA900 22NM DUVL will appear and IF we believed the rumor it stand between NXT 2000i and NXT 2050i. With 6 to 9 months time frame given for compliance a lot can happen, I echo and share the sentiment of @european_guy that ASML and TSMC are waiting for SMEE, CETC and Huawei to save them....lol IF SMEE officially announce they were delivering x&y amount of machinery in 2023 and Huawei introduce a 22nm DUVL, I bet you it will embolden them both.

hans_r said:

I'm guess I don't understand but, since EUV is already banned and if China has large-scale immersion lithography manufacturing upcoming, doesn't that make nearly all the conversation about export controls largely moot?

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Bingo!!!! It's good to have your thinking cap on.

ansy1968 said:

Then Sir ASML loss the China market, NXT 1980i is analogous to SMEE SSA800 28NM DUVL, then better go local which is cheaper with less hassle than importing one.

My view NXT 2100i is being design and produce for the Chinese market, NO if NO but about it, anything lower is a vanity import. I believe within a year or two a mythical SSA900 22NM DUVL will appear and IF we believed the rumor it stand between NXT 2000i and NXT 2050i. With 6 to 9 months time frame given for compliance a lot can happen, I echo and share the sentiment of @european_guy that ASML and TSMC are waiting for SMEE, CETC and Huawei to save them....lol IF SMEE officially announce they were delivering x&y amount of machinery in 2023 and Huawei introduce a 22nm DUVL, I bet you it will embolden them both.

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Sadly, I don't expect dutch on this. US don't care about economy of puppets and puppets will lose as US ordered them.

resistance said:

Sadly, I don't expect dutch on this. US don't care about economy of puppets and puppets will lose as US ordered them.

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Have faith my friend, the fact that the Dutch are resisting shows that they believed in the strength of Chinese scientist and industrial capacity. There is a saying "You're a threat IF you have the intention BUT a good friend and an asset IF your have the capability"....lol

ansy1968 said:

Then Sir ASML loss the China market, NXT 1980i is analogous to SMEE SSA800 28NM DUVL, then better go local which is cheaper with less hassle than importing one.

My view NXT 2100i is being design and produce for the Chinese market, NO if NO but about it, anything lower is a vanity import. I believe within a year or two a mythical SSA900 22NM DUVL will appear and IF we believed the rumor it stand between NXT 2000i and NXT 2050i. With 6 to 9 months time frame given for compliance a lot can happen, I echo and share the sentiment of @european_guy that ASML and TSMC are waiting for SMEE, CETC and Huawei to save them....lol IF SMEE officially announce they were delivering x&y amount of machinery in 2023 and Huawei introduce a 22nm DUVL, I bet you it will embolden them both.

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There is actually no proof SMEE's current arfi scanner is close to NXT 1980i. Even if it is tested to have similar mixed match overlay as 1980i, I'm not sure if that can be replicated in large scale operation at same high scanning speed as 1980i. I think we are already probably overly optimistic on SMEE scanners, so might be wise to temper down our expectations.

I will also say that since SMIC has been spending a lot of money in its SMSC fabs on latest ASML machines, it actually would be a blow to them if they can't get all scanners they need from ASML. Since they already have that entire advanced process worked out with ASML scanners. However, given their most recent injection of capex into ASML, I'm confident they will get all the scanners they need for the expansion there. My hope is that by 2024, Chinese scanners will be comparable to 1980i/2000i. Maybe it will have to be Huawei that drives the project, who knows.

I've also just thought of something. Maybe the Chinese gov't should do something proactive to encourage Dutch gov't to resist American pressure. There is a lot of things China can encourage its local companies do. SMIC or Huahong could build a fab in Netherlands with ASML scanners. CATL or another battery maker can build a battery factory there. BYD or another automaker can build a car factory there. One of the Chinese solar companies can build a final assembly plant there. Rotterdam is the largest port in Europe. There is actual logical reasons to build plants in Netherlands since you can ship the parts there pretty easily. Chinese gov't has taken a big hit recently in Europe with COVID, Russia war and the Xinjiang attacks. Building some new energy factories in Europe is a good way to get Europeans back on their side. Especially at a time when European industries are fleeing there due to high energy prices. Not every Chinese factory in Europe need to be in Hungary.

tphuang said:

There is actually no proof SMEE's current arfi scanner is close to NXT 1980i. Even if it is tested to have similar mixed match overlay as 1980i, I'm not sure if that can be replicated in large scale operation at same high scanning speed as 1980i. I think we are already probably overly optimistic on SMEE scanners, so might be wise to temper down our expectations.

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Sir from @Oldschool

MMO 2.5nm, 200 WPH seems comparable to me. Ohhhh!!!! regarding the laser its 60W not 10W. That was last year after a thorough verification, we know the aftereffect as improvement can be achieve as end user give their feed backs.

Oldschool​

Junior Member​

Registered Member
Oct 21, 2021
here some tidbits for you. if you want to post it or do some research on it. or ask wtan for confirmation...etc.

2021年9月3日, 芯成都代工，采用上海微光刻机 SSA800/10W浸入式光刻机参数：镜头NA：1.35 单次曝光分辨率：38-41nm 双工件台：DWSi，产率在每小时200片晶圆 套刻精度：优于2.5nm 设计指标：能够在单次曝光条件下满足28nm平面planner晶体管逻辑电路工艺需求​

On September 3, 2021, Xincheng Chengdu foundry, using Shanghai microlithography machine SSA800/10W immersion lithography machine parameters: Lens NA: 1.35 Single exposure resolution: 38-41nm Dual workpiece table: DWSi, productivity Overlay accuracy of 200 wafers per hour: better than 2.5nm Design index: able to meet the process requirements of 28nm planar planner transistor logic circuit under the condition of single exposure

ansy1968 said:

Sir from @Oldschool

MMO 2.5nm, 200 WPH seems comparable to me. Ohhhh!!!! regarding the laser its 60W not 10W. That was last year after a thorough verification, we know the aftereffect as improvement can be achieve as end user give their feed backs.

Oldschool​

Junior Member​

Registered Member
Oct 21, 2021
here some tidbits for you. if you want to post it or do some research on it. or ask wtan for confirmation...etc.

2021年9月3日, 芯成都代工，采用上海微光刻机 SSA800/10W浸入式光刻机参数：镜头NA：1.35 单次曝光分辨率：38-41nm 双工件台：DWSi，产率在每小时200片晶圆 套刻精度：优于2.5nm 设计指标：能够在单次曝光条件下满足28nm平面planner晶体管逻辑电路工艺需求​

On September 3, 2021, Xincheng Chengdu foundry, using Shanghai microlithography machine SSA800/10W immersion lithography machine parameters: Lens NA: 1.35 Single exposure resolution: 38-41nm Dual workpiece table: DWSi, productivity Overlay accuracy of 200 wafers per hour: better than 2.5nm Design index: able to meet the process requirements of 28nm planar planner transistor logic circuit under the condition of single exposure

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it's smic foundry in chengdu, but I'm joking, it's Huawei's foundry in Chengdu.. i also posted on my twitter last year... and got stoned for it

US Under Secretary of Commerce Alan Estevez: "China [can still] make semiconductors [for] the airbags of cars, which I have no problem with."