Chinese semiconductor industry

Status
Not open for further replies.

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
I've been reading through it, it largely seems to be links to research papers (which lack scale) or various sites like infnews which are fairly questionable in credibility. Most English language coverage by US news orgs is simply wrong - I have noticed that
SMEE delivered 28nm DUVi and that machine tap out thousands of wafers in Shanghai. testing continue from past few months if all goes well then from next year serial production can start.

this is the latest information we have.

SMEE patent of DUV. 18 months old

SMEE's 28nm DUV patent officially revelead.png
 

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

DUTCH minister -

We also realize that China supplies 90 percent of all critical raw materials for chip production worldwide.

Thanks for posting this article! It is very good because it reports the actual words from the very people involved here.

First of all who speaks is the Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation is also responsible for export controls. So she is the one!

Here below what I find most interesting:

"In 2019, the Netherlands already gave in to American pressure to block a Chinese order for an EUV machine, ASML's showpiece, on the basis of the Wassenaar Arrangement. But the Wassenaar Arrangement does not apply to the more common lithography machines that use deep ultraviolet light (DUV)."

Clarifying piece of information. EUV banning is not due to 25% limit of US origin components but to Wassenaar Arrangement, and for this specific reason US has not been able to ban DUV.

---------------------------------

It is 2 years that Holland resists the pressure!

"Minister <...> wants to confirm in conversation with NRC that the Netherlands has been talking intensively with the Americans about export restrictions for two years now."

---------------------------------

This lady can fight:

"US cannot simply impose such changes on us. We participate in those conversations in a sovereign way. Because the Americans need us too"

---------------------------------

It won't be tomorrow

When could the Netherlands take any steps? The timing depends on how the talks go. More time is needed for that.

---------------------------------

China government is not standing still.

"China has so far kept a low profile about the American offensive in the trade war, but is addressing Dutch politicians about it"

"Prime Minister Mark Rutte received an invitation to visit Beijing after the G20 summit"


---------------------------------

Finally, she also seems to have good humor.

The US argues that the plans are not aimed at affecting the Chinese economy, but that they are purely concerned with national security. Is that also your interpretation? National security is also the most important component for the Netherlands. But our own national security.

---------------------------------

The final threat!

"If, in the eyes of the US, the Netherlands intervenes too little to limit the export of advanced chip machines to China, the US will have a trump card. Through a so -called foreign direct rule, the US can prohibit the export of American-made parts. Both ASML and ASM International machines contain some parts that are made in the US."

Now I understand from where the 9 months limit imposed by US comes from. IMO If they don't reach a deal within 9 months US threats to apply foreign direct rule on ASML....but if they didn't do until now, it means there would be side-effects for US too. As the minister said: US needs us too.

US is really unable to negotiate without threatening, it is in their DNA. Probably it will take them some century, but they will have to evolve.
 
Last edited:

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Honestly, I think you guys overestimate Netherlands. What will happen in 9 months will be the US basically saying "you either with us or against us", that's it.

I dont understand why people think that a vassal would resist the hegemon. I would gladly take the bet that in 9 months time Netherlands will bend the knee. Its a shame that there is not that much awareness of how many available cards the US can play to ensure that it gets what it wants

IMO the best China can hope for, is for the bans to not be overly harsh and to be gradual.

To summarise, Netherlands will bend, Japan will bend
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
My opinion as in Never.;) Hear me out Bro, The Dutch are playing with words, they already bend with EUVL restriction, will they bend even more? with SMEE SSA800 in mass production mode next year. I know they're a monopoly BUT having gain such distinction they definitely know how to run a business.

Agree.

The correct view of this situation is China is developing its own internal IC industry 100% regardless of the outside world.

Whether or not others institute bans is immaterial in the long run for China.

If there are bans, those are ideological choices, and not rational business decisions.

And you cannot do business with flaky people.

The difference cannot be more stark.

One side does its business. The other side is all about ideology.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Honestly, I think you guys overestimate Netherlands. What will happen in 9 months will be the US basically saying "you either with us or against us", that's it.

I dont understand why people think that a vassal would resist the hegemon. I would gladly take the bet that in 9 months time Netherlands will bend the knee. Its a shame that there is not that much awareness of how many available cards the US can play to ensure that it gets what it wants

IMO the best China can hope for, is for the bans to not be overly harsh and to be gradual.

To summarise, Netherlands will bend, Japan will bend

It is simple.

Americans believe in cowboys and Indians.

The rest of the world, not too much. Those cowboys and Indians movies just the stuff of Hollywood.

That phase is burned my mind, from the Bush II war against Saddam Hussein.

One guy in the Middle East, made best assessment ever, saying that the Americans thought that Bush II vs Saddam Hussein was just a shoot 'em up cowboy and Indians.

Needless to say, he did not think that was a good idea.

The cowboys and Indians narrative is not to be taken seriously.

If it does happen, it tends to turn out like I-raq.

That is the view from the rest of the world, including some parts of Europe.
 

theorlonator

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thanks for posting this article! It is very good because it reports the actual words from the very people involved here.

First of all who speaks is the Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation is also responsible for export controls. So she is the one!

Here below what I find most interesting:

"In 2019, the Netherlands already gave in to American pressure to block a Chinese order for an EUV machine, ASML's showpiece, on the basis of the Wassenaar Arrangement. But the Wassenaar Arrangement does not apply to the more common lithography machines that use deep ultraviolet light (DUV)."

Clarifying piece of information. EUV banning is not due to 25% limit of US origin components but to Wassenaar Arrangement, and for this specific reason US has not been able to ban DUV.

---------------------------------

It is 2 years that Holland resists the pressure!

"Minister <...> wants to confirm in conversation with NRC that the Netherlands has been talking intensively with the Americans about export restrictions for two years now."

---------------------------------

This lady can fight:

"US cannot simply impose such changes on us. We participate in those conversations in a sovereign way. Because the Americans need us too"

---------------------------------

It won't be tomorrow

When could the Netherlands take any steps? The timing depends on how the talks go. More time is needed for that.

---------------------------------

China government is not standing still.

"China has so far kept a low profile about the American offensive in the trade war, but is addressing Dutch politicians about it"

"Prime Minister Mark Rutte received an invitation to visit Beijing after the G20 summit"


---------------------------------

Finally, she also seems to have good humor.

The US argues that the plans are not aimed at affecting the Chinese economy, but that they are purely concerned with national security. Is that also your interpretation? National security is also the most important component for the Netherlands. But our own national security.

---------------------------------

The final threat!

"If, in the eyes of the US, the Netherlands intervenes too little to limit the export of advanced chip machines to China, the US will have a trump card. Through a so -called foreign direct rule, the US can prohibit the export of American-made parts. Both ASML and ASM International machines contain some parts that are made in the US."

Now I understand from where the 9 months limit imposed by US comes from. IMO If they don't reach a deal within 9 months US threats to apply foreign direct rule on ASML....but if they didn't do until now, it means there would be side-effects for US too. As the minister said: US needs us too.

US is really unable to negotiate without threatening, it is in their DNA. Probably it will take them some century, but they will have to evolve.
They should be able to replace the US origin parts, Gigaphoton is one example.

Also the FDPR shouldn't affect Nikon shipments of of DUV machines.
 

hvpc

Junior Member
Registered Member
They should be able to replace the US origin parts, Gigaphoton is one example.

Also the FDPR shouldn't affect Nikon shipments of of DUV machines.
There are other US origin parts in ASML scanners. Replacing Cymer laser does not solve the problem.

I heard from many sources that the Japanese government will support the US. Nikon would have to follow their government's policy. And even if Nikon could still sale to China, they had cut budget of their semiconductor division over the last few years that they simply don't have the personnel and capacity to build & ship enough systems to fulfill Chinse market needs.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Right, I think the Dutch sanctions will be a compromise to get America off it's back. The only question is how far it goes. I just don't see asml growing head count in china if it didn't get some form of assurance from Dutch government that they wouldn't be allowed to stay competitive in china long term.

What is the point of Dutch government sanctioning its own companies if Chinese competitors can produce equivalent machines?

Other thing is that blame must be thrown at Huawei here. If it made the push into lithography machines back 10 years ago, we wouldn't have this problem now. Smee doesn't seem that competent of a company. All the domestic suppliers already exist. I would feel more comfortable if Huawei was driving the integration rather than smee.
This is a big irony. Nowadays Huawei becomes a darling in China. Before US sanctions, Huawei was more hated than loved in China, partly because of its way of conducting business and partly because of its dominant position. But Ren Zheng Fei built Huawei into a truly global business from its humble beginning, sometimes intentionally shunning domestic vendors. I personally witnessed some of the Huawei drama all the way back to the last century, no kidding. So yes, to some degree, Huawei deserved what it has been receiving from the west, only because Huawei 一厢情愿 integrating more with western vendors than domestic vendors.
 

theorlonator

Junior Member
Registered Member
There are other US origin parts in ASML scanners. Replacing Cymer laser does not solve the problem.

I heard from many sources that the Japanese government will support the US. Nikon would have to follow their government's policy. And even if Nikon could still sale to China, they had cut budget of their semiconductor division over the last few years that they simply don't have the personnel and capacity to build & ship enough systems to fulfill Chinse market needs.
Are those other parts not replaceable?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top