Chinese semiconductor industry

paiemon said:

This right here is the statement. He is basically admitting that this is a politically driven decision on what constitutes "national security" vs the holistic review of "national security" that export control policies fall under. For those on the outside, typically export control policies are reviewed by a tri-commission comprised of Pentagon (specifically, Pentagon Research & Engineering), Commerce (trade & supply chain), Treasury ($$$). The point is to weigh the pros and cons of the specific technologies, their impacts from a defense/security standpoint, and the costs to companies. What most people don't know, is that the Pentagon is quiet sensitive to US companies taking a significant hit because many Pentagon weapons systems rely on the commercial supply chain for production and innovation, and if those companies take a hit, the effect will boomerang back to them eventually. While most defence/security systems are built by defence contractors, for many technologies and parts they rely on commercial dual-use products for cost and efficiency. If you want to confirm look no further then the teardowns people have done on Russian weapons, the US does the same. I doubt the Pentagon would be thrilled to find out that the US semi industry just had a sledgehammer taken to its face, because any corresponding cutbacks will be felt by them.

Alan Estevez deespite being from the Pentagon is a political appointee and not a science & engineering expert, so he has taken top-down political directives from the Biden admnistration on how they see "national security" for implementation. Although Bateman didn't say, I doubt this was coordinated with other departments as well since I can't see how the Pentagon R&D reps would agree to something like this. I didn't think you could do worse than the Trump Administration, but it seems like the Biden Administration is determined to reach new lows. For any American semi employees who get laid off as a result of this, I suggest investing in some Alan Estevez voodoo dolls with your severance package.

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manatee988 said:

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manatee988 said:

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caudaceus said:

They do this in the middle of chip glut and possible recession? What would happen if any 1 of them unfortunately need to do chapter 11?

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Jianguo said:

I'm pretty sure, as in I am 100% sure, recession is coming and probably started a few months ago. Perfect timing for brutal tech sanctions according to the geniuses in American policy circles. Speaking of recession, Amazon earnings announced yesterday with terrible numbers causing a brutal 20% after-hours stock price crash. Anybody awake at 4am today should seriously consider buying Amazon in pre-market trading and then selling short-term covered calls at the open. Easy money!

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Intel CEO Calls New U.S. Restrictions on Chip Exports to China Inevitable​

european_guy said:

Intel CEO Calls New U.S. Restrictions on Chip Exports to China Inevitable​

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"Mr. Gelsinger said the ambition for efforts to boost domestic chip manufacturing in Western countries was to shift from about 80% in Asia to about 50% by the end of the decade, with the U.S. taking 30% and Europe the remaining 20%."

Apparently it is against China, but actually it is against Taiwan. Shrinking Asia from 80% to 50% market share within few years, it clearly means to move TSMC to US (people included) and rename it Intel.

BTW 30% US and 20% Europe is a joke, actually it is 50% US, eventually in the best case with some new sub-state-of-the-art US fab in Europe, if EU pays the bill.

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tokenanalyst said:

So a case of give more money daddy goverment, seems they losing competitiveness.
But lets suppose their best case scenario. This fabs are just high tech sweatshops, an ecosystem that only can exist under certain conditions that doesn't exist in the West, so if the US use their geopolitical muscle to to shift production, people are going to pay more for their products A LOT MORE.
Or it could mark the end of US dominance in semiconductor tools and IP as Asian countries fight back with workarounds.

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