Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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So this guy expended months unsuccessfully trying to convince Japan, Holland and other countries to join them, then they decided to go unilateral and rogue causing a lot of damage to companies all over the industry including to their own and their own allies companies, like South Korea that now their companies are begging to get an insignificant 1 year license.
Good luck, because non US companies are salivating for that market share and they are going to fight that, they have a very small window opportunity before Chinese companies take over the entirety of the Chinese market.
TEL has been accelerating their advertising in China about their tools as a one-stop solution for semiconductor manufacturing, just saying.
I think we should not underestimate America's ability to force Japan and Holland to follow its footsteps, but I also it's unlikely to happen in the near term. And I think China should let Japan know of the consequences if it does follow America's order here.
To protect themselves, Chinese companies should definitely fast track their orders for future expansion plans. I think another year of ASML Arfi deliveries would basically be all SMIC/HLMC need. And even if something does get struck up, I think other countries will allow continued servicing and have a grace period. I guess we will see.
btw, thanks for the info on Guowang expansion. It seems like they are getting ready for SMEE to mass produce front end scanners of all classes. That's probably the most encouraging news on this.
I agree China research institutions and the semiconductor industry should put a war-like effort to develop a micro-nano patterning industry, including EUV, DUV, immersion, NIL, Maskless, LED and E-Beam lithography which by the way, is almost no existent in China, not even in the research literature or patent literature, E-beam lithography is essential for advance mask development which is critical for chip making.
I'll actually be shocked if the US can actually force other countries to pledge they'll never develop their own products to compete with disadvantaged American companies that just got their arms and legs chopped off by the government.
That's more damaging to US tech leadership than the sanctions they're trying here.
What's the deal with electron beam lithography and why isn't China represented? How quickly can China spin up an industry and become competitive?
Same reason why making scientific instruments never really took off -- it can be easily imported. Not to disclose too much but I know, through personal connections, for a fact that faculties in China do have domestic electron beam microscopes. However, most of the time they are either used to train undergrad students or sit in a corner gathering dust because their performance/reliability don't hold a candle to imported equipment. Due to this deficiency, domestic companies can't iteratively improve their products because no one wants them. If electron beam microscope exports to China are banned, on the other hand...
There is nascent, vibrant and growing SEM industry in china which is the basis of EBL. Dongfang Jingyuan, pmish-tech and ohters in the semiconductor market, then you have the scientific market with kyky, focus-ebeam and others. But not an serious effort in the lithography market.
There was some effort in the early 2000s but those efforts die down as soon Chinese research institutes where able to buy those tools from abroad.
A strong Chinese semiconductor equipment industry means a strong Russian semiconductor industry as Russia has fabless companies but their fabs are constrained by tool supply. Combined with Russian control of Donbass which produces most of the neon in the world, domestic control of titanium and Chinese control of rare earths and tungsten, once the tools are available, a joint Sino-Russian cutoff of raw materials would devastate any semiconductor industry that doesn't play ball.
There were some very shortsighted people saying how Russia is 'nothing' and can contribute 'nothing' in semiconductors. Russia is still one of the few countries in the world with an independent semiconductor fab, fabless designers, and most of all, has control of multiple critical inputs.
E-beam lithography is not so hard if you have ion implantation, electron microscopes or mass spectrometers. After all, the principles of charged beam optics are similar across fields. However the details of implementation such as pattern formation and e-beam active resists are going to be challenging, though there is already e-beam lithography tools in existence. Maybe 1-2 years.
This right here is the statement. He is basically admitting that this is a politically driven decision on what constitutes "national security" vs the holistic review of "national security" that export control policies fall under. For those on the outside, typically export control policies are reviewed by a tri-commission comprised of Pentagon (specifically, Pentagon Research & Engineering), Commerce (trade & supply chain), Treasury ($$$). The point is to weigh the pros and cons of the specific technologies, their impacts from a defense/security standpoint, and the costs to companies. What most people don't know, is that the Pentagon is quiet sensitive to US companies taking a significant hit because many Pentagon weapons systems rely on the commercial supply chain for production and innovation, and if those companies take a hit, the effect will boomerang back to them eventually. While most defence/security systems are built by defence contractors, for many technologies and parts they rely on commercial dual-use products for cost and efficiency. If you want to confirm look no further then the teardowns people have done on Russian weapons, the US does the same. I doubt the Pentagon would be thrilled to find out that the US semi industry just had a sledgehammer taken to its face, because any corresponding cutbacks will be felt by them.
Alan Estevez deespite being from the Pentagon is a political appointee and not a science & engineering expert, so he has taken top-down political directives from the Biden admnistration on how they see "national security" for implementation. Although Bateman didn't say, I doubt this was coordinated with other departments as well since I can't see how the Pentagon R&D reps would agree to something like this. I didn't think you could do worse than the Trump Administration, but it seems like the Biden Administration is determined to reach new lows. For any American semi employees who get laid off as a result of this, I suggest investing in some Alan Estevez voodoo dolls with your severance package.
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