Chinese semiconductor industry

Nobonita Barua said:

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That article is moronic. The semiconductor business has its own timescales and you can't just switch production in less than a year. It typically takes two years to tapeout a product. It conveniently ignores that Apple also is fabless like Huawei was and in fact also uses TSMC. Same deal with Qualcomm. Neither company has its own fabs. No country, including the US, would survive a ban like this. If Japan did the same thing to the US and retracted the use of their own materials to US products Apple and Qualcomm would be just as stuck as Huawei is.
The Japanese AFAIK have a monopoly on the masks for EUV production. Just like you can't do EUV without a light source you can't do it without masks either.

China is the only country with enough market scale and existing brain share to eventually have its own 100% native production lines independent of the international market. As Jerry Sanders III of AMD used to say. Real men have fabs. Unfortunately for the US only Intel still retains its fab capability and everyone else has went fabless since they can't stomach the investments with Intel in risk of going into the same boat.

I think the perspectives of China in like a decade are quite good actually. This was a nice wakeup call and rallying cry for the Chinese semiconductor tools sector to deliver.

gelgoog said:

That article is moronic. The semiconductor business has its own timescales and you can't just switch production in less than a year. It typically takes two years to tapeout a product. It conveniently ignores that Apple also is fabless like Huawei was and in fact also uses TSMC. Same deal with Qualcomm. Neither company has its own fabs. No country, including the US, would survive a ban like this. If Japan did the same thing to the US and retracted the use of their own materials to US products Apple and Qualcomm would be just as stuck as Huawei is.
The Japanese AFAIK have a monopoly on the masks for EUV production. Just like you can't do EUV without a light source you can't do it without masks either.

China is the only country with enough market scale and existing brain share to eventually have its own 100% native production lines independent of the international market. As Jerry Sanders III of AMD used to say. Real men have fabs. Unfortunately for the US only Intel still retains its fab capability and everyone else has went fabless since they can't stomach the investments with Intel in risk of going into the same boat.

I think the perspectives of China in like a decade are quite good actually. This was a nice wakeup call and rallying cry for the Chinese semiconductor tools sector to deliver.

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Those are technical details you have given that would take a person with intelligence to understand. Do you think the morons of america will understand a thing of what you have just said? I bet 95% of their population would look at your post with OMG face & then simply switch to p--nhub tab.

For me, sanction, which is financial method, nothing has to do with technology, shows you how US is still stuck in pre2000 & 2000 era to get everything done through sanction , while also they are trying to hide the fact that America doesn't figure in competition of technology anymore even with all of their imported brains.

So far i have seen nothing that suggests US itself has done to get their own 5nm chip. They are begging TSMC & Samsung to do it.

Simply printing money doesn't result into technology. You tube bloggers & Instagram influencer wannabes can't make technological breakthrough.

Nobonita Barua said:

...
So far i have seen nothing that suggests US itself has done to get their own 5nm chip. They are begging TSMC & Samsung to do it.
...

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Yes, that is basically it. They think they can just wave their wallet of freshly minted US Dollars and everything will work fine.

Fact is Samsung has had a fab in the USA at Austin Texas for years.
If you try to fab something there today it will at best be in 14nm. i.e. basically same process that sanctions crippled SMIC can produce. Samsung has 7nm processes but only back in factories in South Korea.

US customers could care less where the products are manufactured. At one point the Samsung factory in the USA had a leading edge process and was making chips for Samsung smartphones while Apple used Samsung factories in South Korea for their smartphone chips. It was using the same process back then. With companies like these the US is doomed for certain. As for Intel ever since they put the MBAs in charge of it the company has only gone straight down.

Ĩ mean just look at the bio of this guy.

Compare it with this one.

Huawei to Honor,

"Go forth and set the world on fire"

from cnTechPost


Xiaomi, by comparison, shipped 125.6 million units in 2019. ...


23 hours ago

gelgoog said:

That article is moronic. The semiconductor business has its own timescales and you can't just switch production in less than a year. It typically takes two years to tapeout a product. It conveniently ignores that Apple also is fabless like Huawei was and in fact also uses TSMC. Same deal with Qualcomm. Neither company has its own fabs. No country, including the US, would survive a ban like this. If Japan did the same thing to the US and retracted the use of their own materials to US products Apple and Qualcomm would be just as stuck as Huawei is.
The Japanese AFAIK have a monopoly on the masks for EUV production. Just like you can't do EUV without a light source you can't do it without masks either.

China is the only country with enough market scale and existing brain share to eventually have its own 100% native production lines independent of the international market. As Jerry Sanders III of AMD used to say. Real men have fabs. Unfortunately for the US only Intel still retains its fab capability and everyone else has went fabless since they can't stomach the investments with Intel in risk of going into the same boat.

I think the perspectives of China in like a decade are quite good actually. This was a nice wakeup call and rallying cry for the Chinese semiconductor tools sector to deliver.

Click to expand...

China is already pretty much self sufficient in all the semiconductor equipment at its current, most advanced domestic (10-14nm) node apart from lithography machines.

Even if the SSA800 series needs a bunch of real world usage/testing to improve its testing so the 14/7nm node has 80%+ yield rates (it might be able to do <14nm in 2021, but the yield rates might not be so good (IE 30%-60%) until they optimize/adjust the software), and the 2022-23 EUVL machine can only produce 5-7nm at 33-50% rate per hour of an ASML machine, guess what China has a lot of?

Money. Beijing/Huawei/whoever can subsidize the purchasing of more EUVL machines per production line/losses from lower yield rates until SMEE & co incorporate real world experience to improve DUVL/EUVL performance.

Skywatcher said:

China is already pretty much self sufficient in all the semiconductor equipment at its current, most advanced domestic (10-14nm) node apart from lithography machines.

Even if the SSA800 series needs a bunch of real world usage/testing to improve its testing so the 14/7nm node has 80%+ yield rates (it might be able to do <14nm in 2021, but the yield rates might not be so good (IE 30%-60%) until they optimize/adjust the software), and the 2022-23 EUVL machine can only produce 5-7nm at 33-50% rate per hour of an ASML machine, guess what China has a lot of?

Money. Beijing/Huawei/whoever can subsidize the purchasing of more EUVL machines per production line/losses from lower yield rates until SMEE & co incorporate real world experience to improve DUVL/EUVL performance.

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Question is the parts, components and software, including but not limited to the design tools.

Bit complex topics.

gelgoog said:

That article is moronic. The semiconductor business has its own timescales and you can't just switch production in less than a year. It typically takes two years to tapeout a product. It conveniently ignores that Apple also is fabless like Huawei was and in fact also uses TSMC. Same deal with Qualcomm. Neither company has its own fabs. No country, including the US, would survive a ban like this. If Japan did the same thing to the US and retracted the use of their own materials to US products Apple and Qualcomm would be just as stuck as Huawei is.
The Japanese AFAIK have a monopoly on the masks for EUV production. Just like you can't do EUV without a light source you can't do it without masks either.

Click to expand...

Yeah but Japan's not going to do that because the US has allies (including Japan) whereas China doesn't and the US takes care to maintain and seek good relations with other countries whereas China doesn't. China is in trouble not because its companies are bad, it's because China's political choices under Xi Jinping to pick fights with everybody, including the more powerful Western alliance.

China’s long-term strategy to build a domestic semiconductor industry is in shambles. Follow-on effects are likely in related industries such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and self-driving vehicles. China, which has long forced foreign firms to transfer technology as the price of entry into its domestic market, now faces the prospect that foreign firms will pass on the Chinese market in order to maintain access to the United States—and consequently keep their technologies to themselves.

The long term result of this will be the end of the Chinese miracle and the relegation of China to a middle income declining power like Japan.

gadgetcool5 said:

Yeah but Japan's not going to do that because the US has allies (including Japan)[citation needed] whereas China doesn't[citation needed] and the US takes care to maintain and seek good relations with other countries whereas China doesn't.[citation needed] China is in trouble not because its companies are bad, it's because China's political choices under Xi Jinping to pick fights with everybody, including the more powerful Western alliance.[citation needed]

China’s long-term strategy to build a domestic semiconductor industry is in shambles.[citation needed] Follow-on effects are likely in related industries such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and self-driving vehicles. [citation needed]China, which has long forced foreign firms to transfer technology[citation needed] as the price of entry into its domestic market, now faces the prospect that foreign firms will pass on the Chinese market in order to maintain access to the United States—and consequently keep their technologies to themselves.[citation needed]

The long term result of this will be the end of the Chinese miracle and the relegation of China to a middle income declining power like Japan.[citation needed]

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Another post brought to you by the CIA. I took the liberty of marking your post so you can "improve" it and add some sliver of credibility.

gadgetcool5 said:

Yeah but Japan's not going to do that because the US has allies (including Japan) whereas China doesn't and the US takes care to maintain and seek good relations with other countries whereas China doesn't. China is in trouble not because its companies are bad, it's because China's political choices under Xi Jinping to pick fights with everybody, including the more powerful Western alliance.

China’s long-term strategy to build a domestic semiconductor industry is in shambles. Follow-on effects are likely in related industries such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and self-driving vehicles. China, which has long forced foreign firms to transfer technology as the price of entry into its domestic market, now faces the prospect that foreign firms will pass on the Chinese market in order to maintain access to the United States—and consequently keep their technologies to themselves.

The long term result of this will be the end of the Chinese miracle and the relegation of China to a middle income declining power like Japan.

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Is that you Gordon?
I feel nearly every post of yours on these tech threads have been "china suck / fail". I think we are here to discuss and share progress of the tech, not surrender. I feel this gets repeated in this thread every month...

gadgetcool5 said:

Yeah but Japan's not going to do that because the US has allies (including Japan) whereas China doesn't and the US takes care to maintain and seek good relations with other countries whereas China doesn't. China is in trouble not because its companies are bad, it's because China's political choices under Xi Jinping to pick fights with everybody, including the more powerful Western alliance.

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Japan's not going to do that because the US has had its boot on Japan's neck since 1945. You mean how the US seeks good relationships by attacking countries either physically or through trade wars and threats? LOL China doesn't pick fights; it only answers them, and it shows the world how hard it is to count your losses and walk away after you've started trouble with China.

gadgetcool5 said:

China’s long-term strategy to build a domestic semiconductor industry is in shambles. Follow-on effects are likely in related industries such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and self-driving vehicles. China, which has long forced foreign firms to transfer technology as the price of entry into its domestic market, now faces the prospect that foreign firms will pass on the Chinese market in order to maintain access to the United States—and consequently keep their technologies to themselves.

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America's ambitions to maintain technological dominance are in shambles as Trump gave the whole world, China most importantly, a wake-up call to produce their own core technology. The opportunity for China critics to console themselves that China will not dominate tech is fading like sunlight at dusk. China is home to the largest talent pool of STEM personnel who also show superior average individual intellect. Couple this with the base of knowledge already in China allowing it to produce world-beating technologies (such as in quantum computing, 5G, AI, etc...) and you have an infallible combination. The US will eventually tell its citizens that it has done a miraculous job holding China off for so long with just a quarter of the population that isn't even as invested in STEM on a per capita basis.

gadgetcool5 said:

The long term result of this will be the end of the Chinese miracle and the relegation of China to a middle income declining power like Japan.

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The long term result of this is the catalyst of American technological decline and China's rise to the top of the world. Trump brought it forth and will blame those behind him when the effects take place.