You can't just switch semiconductor fabs at the drop of a hat like that. If they want to switch their design to a different fab they need to redesign the chip and do another tapeout. That can take 2-3 years. That's when you will see a reduction in customers at SMIC if it happens.
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Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Hi gelgoog,You can't just switch semiconductor fabs at the drop of a hat like that. If they want to switch their design to a different fab they need to redesign the chip and do another tapeout. That can take 2-3 years. That's when you will see a reduction in customers at SMIC if it happens.
There will be no new orders (complying with the US ban) after SMIC complete Qualcomm and other US company contracts. I think SMIC will able to find new customer quickly as TSMC and other big boys is having problem satisfying demand, like I mention from my previous post , there is a shortage of wafer capacity in 2021 to 2022.
The CAAM believes that due to the shortage of chip supply, the production of some companies may be g ...
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You are correct about the shortage @ansy1968. A lot of companies want 5nm chips but it seems Apple got all the available capacity at TSMC to themselves. I think NVIDIA was so pissed of at that for the first time they switched to Samsung for manufacturing their GPUs. In the past they exclusively used TSMC as a manufacturer and NVIDIA's founder is even from Taiwan and had good personal relations with TSMC's founder Morris Chang. In the past, when Morris Chang was CEO of TSMC, he avoided being locked into a single customer and tried to satisfy demand of all customers. He retired two years ago.
Hi gelgoog,You are correct about the shortage @ansy1968. A lot of companies want 5nm chips but it seems Apple got all the available capacity at TSMC to themselves. I think NVIDIA was so pissed of at that for the first time they switched to Samsung for manufacturing their GPUs. In the past they exclusively used TSMC as a manufacturer and NVIDIA's founder is even from Taiwan and has had good relations with TSMC's founder (Morris Chang).
I'm not a religious person and don't usually believe in relying on Hope as a way out. But China, Huawei and SMIC all experience adversity had find a way thru some kind of divine intervention or luck. The US plan of killing both Huawei and SMIC didn't factor the market condition. The shortage itself may force the American to withdrew its ban to satisfy US company demand as well as Huawei as a major client of its product. In this trying times the one that struggle usually comes out on top. As Bill Clinton famously said " IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID".
This shortage in 5nm chipmaking capacity would only incentivize continuing to ban Huawei from TSMC, if only to free up production for the most advanced American chips. American companies are already fighting each other over TSMC spots, why would they want more contenders for 5nm manufacturing?
Hi Arcgem,This shortage in 5nm chipmaking capacity would only incentivize continuing to ban Huawei from TSMC, if only to free up production for the most advanced American chips. American companies are already fighting each other over TSMC spots, why would they want more contenders for 5nm manufacturing?
There are only 2 FABS that can produce 5nm chips, that's TSMC and SAMSUNG ( 2 gen behind, China may achieved it maybe in 5 years). With tight supply it only mean HIGHER PRICE, who will buy an expensive 5G IPHONE when your own telecom provider can't provide that service. China aggressive push in its 5G network is driving global demand and I know that Huawei had a 5G chips based on 7nm, If SMIC is able to mass produce the 7nm N+2, then it will satisfy China needs. That is what everybody is waiting for especially for Huawei.
Hi Arcgem,
There are only 2 FABS that can produce 5nm chips, that's TSMC and SAMSUNG ( 2 gen behind, China may achieved it maybe in 5 years). With tight supply it only mean HIGHER PRICE, who will buy an expensive 5G IPHONE when your own telecom provider can't provide that service. China aggressive push in its 5G network is driving global demand and I know that Huawei had a 5G chips based on 7nm, If SMIC is able to mass produce the 7nm N+2, then it will satisfy China needs. That is what everybody is waiting for especially for Huawei.
For boutique phone brands like iPhone, price is no object. Same goes for just about every other high-tier brand. Nobody in that price range cares about individual features, just "faster cores, smaller chips". They are even willing to pay double to resellers who buy out all the goods.
Not certain SMIC is taking orders from Huawei. Its N+2 technology reportedly is based on ASML DUV.
Hi Arcgem,For boutique phone brands like iPhone, price is no object. Same goes for just about every other high-tier brand. Nobody in that price range cares about individual features, just "faster cores, smaller chips". They are even willing to pay double to resellers who buy out all the goods.
Not certain SMIC is taking orders from Huawei. Its N+2 technology reportedly is based on ASML DUV.
That's what I'm saying, who will buy such a boutique phone, I gave you an example, my wife and her relative is an IPHONE user, they will not replace their older IPHONE for a new one with the only improvement is having a 5G capability. Also our telecom provider will only introduced their 5G network by 2024. Why not wait, by that time the price will be lower with more spec available. It's a marketing ploy and the consumer had wisen up.
Not certain SMIC is taking orders from Huawei. Its N+2 technology reportedly is based on ASML DUV.
Both of them are under sanction, so what's the downside. The only problem for SMIC is the spare parts for its US equipment. Since it already stock pile a lot maybe it will not cause any inconvenience. The only solution is a domestic one and here it may take some time. But the urgency is there and may fast track it's usage. As WTAN and other experts had stated, domestic 28nm this year, 14nm late next year and hopefully 7nm late 2022 or early 2023. The time frame may change depend on some breakthrough or mishap. My projection by 2025 we may be 1 gen behind the 2 leaders (5nm vs 3nm) , if SMIC can achieved that , I'll be happy and will be celebrating their success.
They have to find a way of breaking TSMC's leading position, not only for Huawei and SMIC, but also for retaking Taiwan for good.You are correct about the shortage @ansy1968. A lot of companies want 5nm chips but it seems Apple got all the available capacity at TSMC to themselves. I think NVIDIA was so pissed of at that for the first time they switched to Samsung for manufacturing their GPUs. In the past they exclusively used TSMC as a manufacturer and NVIDIA's founder is even from Taiwan and had good personal relations with TSMC's founder Morris Chang. In the past, when Morris Chang was CEO of TSMC, he avoided being locked into a single customer and tried to satisfy demand of all customers. He retired two years ago.
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