Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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No wonder the Chinese are disinterested and NOT panicking because they know the American SOOOO WELLLL....lol

Intel’s Multi-Billion Bait And Switch​

Oct 14, 2022•
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The chip manufacturer cheered on a $76 billion subsidy package for the industry, then announced capital spending cuts and mass layoffs while maintaining payouts to shareholders.

Just a couple of months after Intel’s
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effort succeeded in winning microchip companies billions of dollars in no-strings-attached corporate subsidies, Intel is reportedly planning to lay off thousands of workers.
The potential layoffs come only weeks after the company
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a shareholder dividend at the same rate as the previous few quarters — amounting to a total of about
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in annual dividends.
The sequence of events confirms warnings about the so-called CHIPS Act from a vanishingly small number of critics who cautioned that without changes, the legislation would let companies use the money to finance payouts to wealthy investors, and would not obligate the companies to expand their investments in domestic jobs.
And yet, those critics were ignored by politicians and pundits of both parties eager to shovel federal money to a handful of powerful tech companies. Indeed, when Sen. Bernie Sanders (Ind.-Vt.)
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to those subsidies — including a ban on stock buybacks, a cap on executive pay, a government equity stake, and union neutrality provisions — he was thwarted by Democratic leaders.
At the time, Democrats blocking Sanders’ initiative were bolstered by Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who insisted that if the legislation did not pass immediately, the company could
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factories overseas and hold up already-planned investments.

When lawmakers ultimately passed the bill in July, Intel abruptly began changing its rhetoric about new domestic investments: That very same day, the company
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on capital spending by billions of dollars, but still intended to issue a “strong and growing dividend” for shareholders.
The Biden administration has not yet announced which companies will be receiving the CHIPS Act subsidies, and for what projects. Before the legislation passed, Intel
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to be a primary beneficiary of the subsidies.
Now Sanders’ original warnings are being realized in the form of a new report in Bloomberg News.
“Intel Corp. is planning a major reduction in headcount, likely numbering in the thousands, to cut costs and cope with a sputtering personal-computer market, according to people with knowledge of the situation,” Bloomberg
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October 12. “Some divisions, including Intel’s sales and marketing group, could see cuts affecting about 20 percent of staff, according to the people.”
Bloomberg reports that the move is a likely attempt to shore up profits, as Gelsinger suggested on a recent earnings call. “We are also lowering core expenses in calendar year 2022 and will look to take additional actions in the second half of the year,” Gelsinger said.
 

weig2000

Captain
People who have nothing else to say or contribute but just want to refute some random twitter posts about China or Chinese semiconductor industry and feel good about yourself, please post them in the Breaking News thread and debate to your heart's content there. Leave this thread less polluted. It's painful to read a random someone's negative sentiment about anything China which predictably triggers a long train of reactions repeating the same old again and again.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yup they are projecting their problems to the Chinese BUT some American investor will have none of it....lol Cui Bono? Definitely NOT TSMC. ;)

The chipmaker could turn in an ugly third-quarter earnings report.​

Intel (
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-1.93%) will report its third-quarter results on Oct. 27, and analysts have set a low bar for the chipmaker. They expect its revenue and earnings to decline 15% and 81% year over year, respectively, as it grapples with slower PC sales in a post-pandemic world, macro headwinds for data center operators, and its ongoing market share losses to Advanced Micro Devices (
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-5.09%).
For the full year, Wall Street expects Intel's revenue and earnings to drop 12% and 60%, respectively. That's why its stock price has declined more than 50% this year and trades at just nine times forward earnings.
Unfortunately, five red flags indicate Intel could still fail to clear those low expectations.
Illustration of a semiconductor.

IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

1. AMD's chilling preview of its Q3 earnings​

AMD has been growing at a much faster rate than Intel because it outsourced the production of its top-tier CPUs to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (
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-4.05%), the world's most advanced
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. Intel, which still produces most of its own chips, had fallen behind TSMC (and AMD) in the process race to create smaller, denser, and more power-efficient chips.
As a result, AMD's share of the x86 CPU market more than doubled from 17.8% at the end of 2016 to about 38.1% today, according to PassMark Software, as Intel's share withered from 82.2% to 61.7%. AMD's gains arguably made it a better bellwether for the x86 CPU market than Intel, which repeatedly struggled with product delays and cancellations.

That's why AMD's
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on Oct. 6 should rattle Intel's investors. AMD now expects its revenue to grow just 29% year over year with an adjusted gross margin of 50%, compared to its prior forecast for 55% growth with an adjusted gross margin of 54%. AMD CEO Lisa Su blamed that guidance cut on "lower-than-expected PC demand and a significant inventory correction across the PC supply chain."
If AMD is already struggling, Intel could face an even uglier slowdown.



2. The PC market's imminent slowdown​

The PC market experienced a growth spurt during the pandemic as more people worked from home, but that demand dried up in a post-lockdown world. Inflation has further curbed the market's appetite for new PCs.
That's why IDC expects global shipments of personal computing devices (PCs and tablets) to decline 10.8% in 2022 and dip another 2.3% in 2023. That's dire news for Intel, AMD, or any other chipmaker that relies heavily on the stable growth of the PC market.

3. TSMC's capital expenditures reduction​

Last year, Intel declared it could catch up to TSMC in the process race by 2025. It initially planned to accomplish that by increasing its capex from $18.7 billion in 2021 to $27 billion in 2022, but it reduced that forecast to $23 billion this July as the market's demand for new chips cooled off.
TSMC initially planned to increase its capex from $30 billion in 2021 to $40 billion in 2022 to maintain its technological lead while ramping up its production of smaller chips. However, it recently reduced that forecast to $36 billion to account for the broader slowdown of the
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.
That reduction indicates that Intel will also reduce its full-year capex forecast again as its revenue growth stalls out. This move might stabilize its margins, but it will also throw cold water on its plans to overtake TSMC in the process race -- and regain some lost ground against AMD -- within the next three years.

4. Thousands of layoffs​

Intel hasn't formally announced any major layoffs yet, but it could reportedly lay off thousands of employees ahead of its third-quarter report. A recent Bloomberg report claims Intel could lay off about 20% of its sales and marketing division to rein in its expenses as PC sales slow down.

Yet that decision wouldn't be surprising. During Intel's
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in July, CEO Pat Gelsinger said the company would work on "lowering core expenses in calendar year 2022" and take "additional actions in the second half of the year" to stabilize its profits.

5. New export restrictions​

Intel and other chipmakers have already struggled over the past year against all those headwinds, but the U.S. Commerce Department just exacerbated that pressure by
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, which would require chipmakers to obtain individual licenses to sell advanced chips in China. This means Intel can't export any of its current-generation chips -- which are smaller than the 14-nm threshold set by the new rules -- into mainland China, which accounted for 27% of its revenue last year. It also suggests that analysts' top-line expectations for Intel could still be too high.

Stay away from Intel (for now)​

Intel's stock looks dirt cheap, but it's trading at a discount because it faces so many unpredictable challenges. These five red flags indicate Intel's third-quarter earnings will pack a lot of unpleasant surprises, so investors should stay far away from its beaten-down stock until the smoke clears.
 

paiemon

Junior Member
Registered Member
No wonder the Chinese are disinterested and NOT panicking because they know the American SOOOO WELLLL....lol

Intel’s Multi-Billion Bait And Switch​

Oct 14, 2022•
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The chip manufacturer cheered on a $76 billion subsidy package for the industry, then announced capital spending cuts and mass layoffs while maintaining payouts to shareholders.

Just a couple of months after Intel’s
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
effort succeeded in winning microchip companies billions of dollars in no-strings-attached corporate subsidies, Intel is reportedly planning to lay off thousands of workers.
The potential layoffs come only weeks after the company
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
a shareholder dividend at the same rate as the previous few quarters — amounting to a total of about
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in annual dividends.
The sequence of events confirms warnings about the so-called CHIPS Act from a vanishingly small number of critics who cautioned that without changes, the legislation would let companies use the money to finance payouts to wealthy investors, and would not obligate the companies to expand their investments in domestic jobs.
And yet, those critics were ignored by politicians and pundits of both parties eager to shovel federal money to a handful of powerful tech companies. Indeed, when Sen. Bernie Sanders (Ind.-Vt.)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to those subsidies — including a ban on stock buybacks, a cap on executive pay, a government equity stake, and union neutrality provisions — he was thwarted by Democratic leaders.
At the time, Democrats blocking Sanders’ initiative were bolstered by Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who insisted that if the legislation did not pass immediately, the company could
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
factories overseas and hold up already-planned investments.

When lawmakers ultimately passed the bill in July, Intel abruptly began changing its rhetoric about new domestic investments: That very same day, the company
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on capital spending by billions of dollars, but still intended to issue a “strong and growing dividend” for shareholders.
The Biden administration has not yet announced which companies will be receiving the CHIPS Act subsidies, and for what projects. Before the legislation passed, Intel
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to be a primary beneficiary of the subsidies.
Now Sanders’ original warnings are being realized in the form of a new report in Bloomberg News.
“Intel Corp. is planning a major reduction in headcount, likely numbering in the thousands, to cut costs and cope with a sputtering personal-computer market, according to people with knowledge of the situation,” Bloomberg
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
October 12. “Some divisions, including Intel’s sales and marketing group, could see cuts affecting about 20 percent of staff, according to the people.”
Bloomberg reports that the move is a likely attempt to shore up profits, as Gelsinger suggested on a recent earnings call. “We are also lowering core expenses in calendar year 2022 and will look to take additional actions in the second half of the year,” Gelsinger said.
See, this is what I never understood in Western politics is blind corporate subsidies. There seems to be this belief that if you subsidize semiconductor operations, you will increase the pot of money (subsidies + whatever the companies normally spend) and hence get more results. But as everyone here recognizes, and should be obvious in the business world is that companies will only spend what is necessary based on what they project to make. So if Intel was going to lets say spend 20bn on capex, and CHIP ACT subsidies add say 10bn, US politicians seem to think that Intel will spend 30bn! Of course, in reality Intel will spend the same 20bn based on the business conditions, only now 10bn is a gift from US taxpayers so it can spend the other 10bn extra on payouts to its executives and shareholders. And given that the government has hurt the overall business environment with sanctions plus a general downturn, from the industry's perspective the US government should be doling out even more subsidies, or companies will slash spending and staff even more to compensate.

For the record I don't think subsidies are an issue, I think for example what is done with YMTC is a great example of subsidies tied to objectives/metrics to drive advancement and market success. But it hurts my brain seeing how it is done in Western countries who are supposed to have a good understanding of market capitalism lol.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
See, this is what I never understood in Western politics is blind corporate subsidies. There seems to be this belief that if you subsidize semiconductor operations, you will increase the pot of money (subsidies + whatever the companies normally spend) and hence get more results. But as everyone here recognizes, and should be obvious in the business world is that companies will only spend what is necessary based on what they project to make. So if Intel was going to lets say spend 20bn on capex, and CHIP ACT subsidies add say 10bn, US politicians seem to think that Intel will spend 30bn! Of course, in reality Intel will spend the same 20bn based on the business conditions, only now 10bn is a gift from US taxpayers so it can spend the other 10bn extra on payouts to its executives and shareholders. And given that the government has hurt the overall business environment with sanctions plus a general downturn, from the industry's perspective the US government should be doling out even more subsidies, or companies will slash spending and staff even more to compensate.
And one more, they have a ready excuse and that is to question the Patriotism of most American Tech Company like Apple, Nvidia and others for NOT buying their Made in America Chips...lol
For the record I don't think subsidies are an issue, I think for example what is done with YMTC is a great example of subsidies tied to objectives/metrics to drive advancement and market success. But it hurts my brain seeing how it is done in Western countries who are supposed to have a good understanding of market capitalism lol.
Cause Harvard teaching are crap while the Chinese facing adversity are learning from school of hard knocks. ;) Eat bitterness such slogan had real life implication...lol
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
So we wait, and in the meantime read about how EUV is harder than plutonium bombs.

:oops::D
And we won't wait that long, the DUVL story book had been finished bro and from what I gather the sales is booming and will become a blockbuster within the next year. The Sequel an EUVL story is being prepared as the last part of the 3 chapters (work bench, optics and power source) is being meticulously work on, here the rumor is that it will become an instant blockbuster as it's being assisted by a group of renowned specialist in their fields (SSRF & CAS) ;)
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
For you guys repeating US/Indian doomer talk, I will remind you that Russia's whole semiconductor fabrication sector has been under US sanctions since 2014, and they still produce chips. For these US sanctions in China to stick the other countries i.e. Europe, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, will have to join the US in the sanctions and thus far they have refrained from doing it. Probably because they fear the same might happen to them eventually. And even if they do join the sanctions regime, China's own industry is pretty close to being able to manufacture their own consumables for DUV from what I have heard here. Like others said maintaining machine tools without vendor support is not a new thing in the industry either.

I am sure there will be hiccups because of the sanctions and delays for sure but this only provides the Chinese industry with more impetus to develop their own solutions. I have seen a similar thing happen in Russia. Russia used to import electric power generation turbines in the F-class from GE and Siemens for decades but when they could not import Siemens gas turbines to Crimea after 2014 without buying it from second sources and installing them themselves, Russia started working on the capability to build those themselves. So Russia got UEC Saturn to work on the problem and now they are manufacturing the GTD-110M gas turbine with 118 MW of power. They did this in like 5 years.

Back then the West also said the Russians could not get the Siemens gas turbines they second sourced to work without help from Siemens, but guess what, they installed them and got them to work in Crimea.

China has basically the whole semiconductor sector covered at this point. There might be some specific quality condition here or there which they cannot meet the spec of thus far, but they can basically understand the whole chain, so it is only a question of time until they can be self sufficient in the semi sector.
 

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
For the record I don't think subsidies are an issue, I think for example what is done with YMTC is a great example of subsidies tied to objectives/metrics to drive advancement and market success. But it hurts my brain seeing how it is done in Western countries who are supposed to have a good understanding of market capitalism lol.

This is a great point. Actually US has always been against subsides. The official reason is that market should rule and capitalism alone is enough.

I am wondering if instead the real reason is that subsides are hard. To get something useful out of a bunch of money thrown at a problem is not easy, it requires organization and discipline. China is far better than US in this, and although also China is not perfect (see recent corruption cases in BigFund), it is far more experienced than US, also because for a very strong government is easier to make companies behave. In US, private sector is strong and big corporates on one side have a lot of leeway, but at the same time are also more subject to Wall Street quarterly judgements. Moreover US court system is more flexible and open-ended in disputes between a company vs United States, and it takes much longer to reach a final decision.

But now we are going toward localization and protectionism all over the world, globalization era is going to end and regional economy and supply chain is the new scenario. Even US has changed course and with Chips and Science Act is actually following China recipe, even if they will never admit it, of course.

So when it comes to subsides, western countries have some intrinsic weakness compared to China, weakness that cannot be overcome easily because it deeply depends on the different political system. That's why US official narrative has represented subsides as the evil for decades...but now it seems they can't keep it any longer.

Bro the Pearl Harbor moment happen four years ago in 2018 when they sanction Huawei, we have already survived the initial shock and is now on the offensive. ;)

Absolutely! The real Pearl Harbor was Huawei, that was a big surprise. What US did now was all but unpredictable. China is still on the defensive side, and will play defense for the next few years too, then the wheel will turn...
 
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