he is correct, but for a different reason: mainland China can't replicate Taiwan's model of importing tools and only focusing on process. The critical part is the tools.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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You cannot underestimate the difficulty of getting the process right and yields up. It is one thing having all the ingredients and utensils for it, quite another to bake a decent cake with them. If it was that easy to get it working you would not have just TSMC and Samsung at the leading edge and companies like Intel failing so hard at getting their process to work.
China opening its space program to the U.S. will make cooperation even harder because a soon the stooges in theD.C. find out the CNSA capabilities are close to those of NASA they will panic and they will try to sanction even the Chinese mars rover that is million kilometers away.
That's always been his M.O. from pandemic control, vaccines, Taiwan, economy, energy policies. This dude has been shown to be proven wrong time and time again, and like weeds just seem to keep popping up with the same entrenched arrogant western led mindset. It's a disease really not a symptom.
As components in chips shrink getting good yield in good volume becomes exponentially difficult, that why I said "A step back to do a jump forward", the focus now should be in polishing the tools, put effort and resources from all of China in breaking through tools bottlenecks. They already a lot of equipment and technologies but the focus should be polishing the tools.
Luckily for China they don't have a lot market to loss in the high end 7nm and below. Just imagine what would have happened if the Chinese fabs breakthrough towards high volume production of 7-5nm using "U.S. borrow tools" with hundred of billions of dollars in investment and the lunatics pull the plug. The losses would have been unimaginable.
In traditional American fashion, too little, too late, more for pompous showmanship/symbolism rather than delivering any fatal blow. Just like the US/EU arms embargo and supercomputer chip ban, China proved to overcome every single obstacle the West has put in front of it. This will end up hurting American companies more than vice-versa.
The US strategist policy thinker are in a conundrum, the longer you wait the stronger the Chinese will become, any harsh action will only accelerate the indigenous process. So what to do? initiate a crisis to force the Chinese back to the negotiating table even though it will only hurt themselves?
Yeah!!!! we have to thanks agent Number 1, he really deserve the Friendship Medal Award and agent number 2 is trying so hard to outdo him.
no underestimation, but China has no choice, because having a bad process with the tools, is better than a good process without the tools to carry it out. Everything has to be done all at once.
This kind of stuff just makes me angry.
We have been posting quite a few reports by various Chinese semiconductor firms that basically said there are close to no impact from these sanctions. I have also posted translation of Lam employee that was servicing YMTC/CXMT. And we have also explained that American employees of tool providers are no longer allowed to work with Chinese clients. These are facts.
Why are people still posting random twitter takes from people who don't have connection to the Chinese semiconductor. What is wrong people?
It's like letting the fox inside the chicken coop and they can't even FAB a 7nm chip what more a 5nm. YET the message is very clear you are an American Company and should get chip FAB by an American fabricator even though they don't have the tech to produce it....lol What an arrogant and condescending attitude coming from the preferred son so watch your back TSMC, you are being prime to be slaughtered.
16 hours ago — In an interview with The Verge, Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, opened up about AMD & NVIDIA using their fabs to build world-class CPUs & GPUs.
At the same time, I’m going to be the foundry for Nvidia. By the way, they need a more resilient supply chain. They need these technologies that we are working on. I don’t know how much of it will win, but I want to win their business. I want to win Qualcomm’s business, and I want to win Apple’s business. We want to be that provider of a choice. Again, we haven’t been in the foundry business. TSMC has perfected that business model for 30 years. They are good at it, and they have an ecosystem around them.
I’m not going to displace that, but to earn that business, we have to start coming in with unique perspectives, the best transistors with capacity corridors, and the PDKs (process design kits) and EDA (electric design automation) tools. The natural tailwinds will work for us. We are getting good momentum, and we are pretty excited about that. One by one, we are getting the media tech design win. The largest fabless company in Taiwan is committed to the US foundry company. That is pretty nice to see. Rick Tsai used to run TSMC, right? He is a very helpful customer. His commitment has helped teach us how to be a good foundry.
16 hours ago — In an interview with The Verge, Intel's CEO, Pat Gelsinger, opened up about AMD & NVIDIA using their fabs to build world-class CPUs & GPUs.
At the same time, I’m going to be the foundry for Nvidia. By the way, they need a more resilient supply chain. They need these technologies that we are working on. I don’t know how much of it will win, but I want to win their business. I want to win Qualcomm’s business, and I want to win Apple’s business. We want to be that provider of a choice. Again, we haven’t been in the foundry business. TSMC has perfected that business model for 30 years. They are good at it, and they have an ecosystem around them.
I’m not going to displace that, but to earn that business, we have to start coming in with unique perspectives, the best transistors with capacity corridors, and the PDKs (process design kits) and EDA (electric design automation) tools. The natural tailwinds will work for us. We are getting good momentum, and we are pretty excited about that. One by one, we are getting the media tech design win. The largest fabless company in Taiwan is committed to the US foundry company. That is pretty nice to see. Rick Tsai used to run TSMC, right? He is a very helpful customer. His commitment has helped teach us how to be a good foundry.
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