Chinese semiconductor industry

ZeEa5KPul said:

If you have no expertise, why are you hyperventilating?

What I do have, which a lot of people here seem to lack, is a memory. I remember the beginnings of this tech war against China and all it's accomplished: zero. I remember the progress China has already made. I also seem to lack the propensity to hyperventilation common around here. I ask myself what's the worst that can happen? A few projects are delayed as they get retooled. Big deal.

Much more important than expertise is the ability to take a deep breath and think things through logically. The demand for semiconductors in China is measured in the hundreds of billions - that is going to get serviced by someone. If it's not American companies then it's Chinese companies, Japanese companies, European companies, Martian companies, whatever. Instead of that money going to American companies, it's going to go to others. Much as I would like it to go to Chinese companies and no one else, I know how markets function and I can already see the train of foreign companies knocking on China's door and hawking wholly de-Americanized products.

What's really funny is that American investors are going to divest from American companies because they just got shut out of the largest and fastest growing market for good. They're going to take that money and invest it in Chinese companies whose prospects just got a whole lot brighter. America, despite itself, is going to do its bit to power China's technological ascent.

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Fedupwithlies said:

Remember Pelosi's visit anyone? Boy the hysterics, even from some supposedly even minded people here. It's war or nothing! Oh the shame of inaction! Time to shoot her down!

What actually happened? China got to change the status quo with literally no cost.

With China, the effect comes out in a while, before anyone's noticed anythings changed, while with the US they claim victory before they've even done anything.

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Fedupwithlies said:

With China, the effect comes out in a while, before anyone's noticed anythings changed, while with the US they claim victory before they've even done anything.

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• US announces new harsh sanctions on Chinese IC industry
• SDF hyperventilation (current time, we are at this stage)
• China's response will be hidden from plain sight
• Chinese foreign spokesman/woman says "we urge the American side to change course or they will have to face the collective will of 1.4 billion Chinese people"
• Global Times editorial "America shows its unreliability, domestic companies will benefit, US should focus on its own issues and stop worrying about China"
• Xi-Biden meeting, China's foreign ministry statement, "Biden said he doesnt want a cold war, and he doesn't support Taiwan's independence". "Xi said he supports a win-win cooperative relationship with US and building a community with a shared future for mankind"
• The entire West, social media, think tankers ridicule China for its weak/no response to US actions
• SDF continues its hyperventilation
• 2-3 years later, a report comes out from a random Western organisation, "China is actually winning the tech war and EUV machine is ready"
• SDF relief, "we won, finally, the end!"
• Some months later, the US announces new extremely harsh sanctions on an unrelated industry that China still heavily depends on the US.
• SDF hyperventilation
• REPEAT from stage 3

Overbom said:

Here how it will go, I used my special powers and predicted the future so that people can finally stop worrying:

• US announces new harsh sanctions on Chinese IC industry
• SDF hyperventilation (current time, we are at this stage)
• China's response will be hidden from plain sight
• Chinese foreign spokesman/woman says "we urge the American side to change course or they will have to face the collective will of 1.4 billion Chinese people"
• Global Times editorial "America shows its unreliability, domestic companies will benefit, US should focus on its own issues and stop worrying about China"
• Xi-Biden meeting, China's foreign ministry statement, "Biden said he doesnt want a cold war, and he doesn't support Taiwan's independence". "Xi said he supports a win-win cooperative relationship with US and building a community with a shared future for mankind"
• The entire West, social media, think tankers ridicule China for its weak/no response to US actions
• SDF continues its hyperventilation
• 2-3 years later, a report comes out from a random Western organisation, "China is actually winning the tech war and EUV machine is ready"
• SDF relief, "we won, finally, the end!"
• Some months later, the US announces new extremely harsh sanctions on an unrelated industry that China still heavily depends on the US.
• SDF hyperventilation
• REPEAT from stage 3

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Jianguo said:

EXACTLY ! Never answer questions that are not already public.formation. These dolts are helping the anti-China state department types who would otherwise be completely Alot of these random posts are to extract information that isn't public or at least not easily found. You sometimes see several anti-China writers work in tandem to insult and create defensive postures in weak minded Chinese who can't help themselves from debunking the insult by disclosing secret NON-public inin the dark. What is amazing is that they are STILL in the dark despite the large number of stupid Chinese thumping their chest trying to prove how advanced they are. To the dumbbells who do this here and elsewhere. Remember to mix it up a little bit and release fake news once in a while confuse them. Be like Gordon Chang.

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Overbom said:

China's response will be something a lot more hidden. A delay on shipping rare earths here, selling more to domestic companies than US companies there, more EV battery supply contracts going to Chinese/EU automakers than US, Chinese phone/computers makers "nudged" to take out US components from their product offerings etc

The way China works, I wouldn't be surprised if China did nothing publically except the usual Global Times angry articles while it knifes the US under the table. Just move on, people here most likely don't have the access to the necessary information to know what China's real response will be

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Overbom said:

Here how it will go, I used my special powers and predicted the future so that people can finally stop worrying:

• US announces new harsh sanctions on Chinese IC industry
• SDF hyperventilation (current time, we are at this stage)
• China's response will be hidden from plain sight
• Chinese foreign spokesman/woman says "we urge the American side to change course or they will have to face the collective will of 1.4 billion Chinese people"
• Global Times editorial "America shows its unreliability, domestic companies will benefit, US should focus on its own issues and stop worrying about China"
• Xi-Biden meeting, China's foreign ministry statement, "Biden said he doesnt want a cold war, and he doesn't support Taiwan's independence". "Xi said he supports a win-win cooperative relationship with US and building a community with a shared future for mankind"
• The entire West, social media, think tankers ridicule China for its weak/no response to US actions
• SDF continues its hyperventilation
• 2-3 years later, a report comes out from a random Western organisation, "China is actually winning the tech war and EUV machine is ready"
• SDF relief, "we won, finally, the end!"
• Some months later, the US announces new extremely harsh sanctions on an unrelated industry that China still heavily depends on the US.
• SDF hyperventilation
• REPEAT from stage 3

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mossen said:

If China was slow in progress then the US wouldn't have dropped such a hammerblow. That alone tells us of the momentum.

Too many Chinese firms had not gotten the message that you can't rely on US chips. A few weeks ago, a Chinese EV (I forgot which) announced they'd start using Nvidia's drive platform in their next models. To me it is shocking how stupid geopolitically some Chinese companies are.

This will make even the stragglers understand that they must 100% indigenise. I'm optimistic about China's chances in the medium- to long-term but I think some people here underestimate the shorter-term adjustment costs.

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Overbom said:

Here how it will go, I used my special powers and predicted the future so that people can finally stop worrying:

• US announces new harsh sanctions on Chinese IC industry
• SDF hyperventilation (current time, we are at this stage)
• China's response will be hidden from plain sight
• Chinese foreign spokesman/woman says "we urge the American side to change course or they will have to face the collective will of 1.4 billion Chinese people"
• Global Times editorial "America shows its unreliability, domestic companies will benefit, US should focus on its own issues and stop worrying about China"
• Xi-Biden meeting, China's foreign ministry statement, "Biden said he doesnt want a cold war, and he doesn't support Taiwan's independence". "Xi said he supports a win-win cooperative relationship with US and building a community with a shared future for mankind"
• The entire West, social media, think tankers ridicule China for its weak/no response to US actions
• SDF continues its hyperventilation
• 2-3 years later, a report comes out from a random Western organisation, "China is actually winning the tech war and EUV machine is ready"
• SDF relief, "we won, finally, the end!"
• Some months later, the US announces new extremely harsh sanctions on an unrelated industry that China still heavily depends on the US.
• SDF hyperventilation
• REPEAT from stage 3

Click to expand...