Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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Secret sauce for retaining an active user base and driving up traffic at SDF.

Yes, some drama helps for a lively forum! :D

Actually hyperventilation is real and I admit I contributed fostering it. My bad! But you know, we are humans and I instinctively don't like when the bully pokes the eye of the nerd. :D

But I'll try to calm down a bit people here, presenting the thing from a different point of view.

At the end of the day, what US is trying to do is forcing China to not produce its chips. US would like to move back the history's clock of.....just a few years! Yes, not decades, not centuries, but only few years. Until very recently China was in the exact same position US want now to push it back: huge chip market, almost all satisfied from imports.

They are attacking IC firms, banning equipment, banning foundries, blocking people from working for semi firms....because they'd love to keep selling chips, and a lot of them, under the old monopoly conditions...with maybe a little bit of blackmailing here and there, just to keep the good old habits.

So even in the worst of all possible scenarios (that will never happen, because progress cannot be blocked), it would be like to return to 2012-2015, when almost all the chips were imported....not a catastrophe, not an Armageddon. China lived and prospered very well even before 2015.
 

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
A positive take
""The tech decoupling could serve as China's Sputnik moment in innovation, forcing it to take a top-down and self-reliance approach, especially in semiconductors," Citi economists said in a note, likening it to the surge in spending and research seen in the United States after the Soviet Union's launch of the world's first satellite."

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daifo

Captain
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Not only for producing chips but also for purchasing. So Xiaomi wants a 7nm chip? Tough luck, banned.
Lenovo wants the latest Intel 7nm chip? Banned

I mean complete ban for buying any chip <14nm from any Western controlled fab. Not only for AI, but everything

I do not believe those companies are on the entity list as they are mainly just selling the same consumer/buisness gear to anyone that is NOT on another US list.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
A few weeks ago, a Chinese EV (I forgot which) announced they'd start using Nvidia's drive platform in their next models.
Either Nio or Xpeng, they're the type to do this kind of thing.
Given the severity of this announcement, I think Chinese government probably will have to announce something to support local industries.
I would be surprised if the government announced anything more than pro forma blather about "US unilateralism" like voyager comedically referred to. I think the support will be targeted - if a company or a small clique of companies with a monopoly on a strategic resource need assistance, they're going to be supported no matter the stupidity of their choice to trust American suppliers. If there's a mix with some companies using Chinese suppliers and others not, I think those who were unwise will be left to their fate. Let the market decide what happens to them.

Case in point would be BYD and Xpeng/Nio. If the latter are up a creek because they chose American suppliers, let them go bankrupt and BYD can buy them out if they have anything worthwhile.
I think they are not in a rush to announce anything, but I think they will take their time and make announcement that makes buying American chip products less appealing. And they need to do something to encourage Chinese nationals to come back to work in china.
China doesn't need to do anything more than it's been doing: advancing. America is a drowning man grasping at straws, there is no counter-sanction or reaction that's going to stop him from flailing his arms madly because he sees his death right in front of him.
It's actually really hard to stop Chinese tech and industries right now. America waited too long to do full industry attack on china
America's sanctions would have been infinitely more effective in the early 2010s, but they were otherwise occupied. Thanks, Osama!
""The tech decoupling could serve as China's Sputnik moment in innovation, forcing it to take a top-down and self-reliance approach, especially in semiconductors," Citi economists said in a note, likening it to the surge in spending and research seen in the United States after the Soviet Union's launch of the world's first satellite."
Citi economists are telling their clients that there's a splendid investment opportunity here.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
So even in the worst of all possible scenarios (that will never happen, because progress cannot be blocked), it would be like to return to 2012-2015, when almost all the chips were imported....not a catastrophe, not an Armageddon. China lived and prospered very well even before 2015.

Only suitable timeframe is between 1991 and 2001. We all know they wouldn’t bat an eye even if someone time travelled back. To keep it short. 2000-2010 = 9/11 and Great Recession. 2010-2020 = Syria (2011), Russia (2013), Ukraine (2014), Trump (2016), and Pandemic (2020).
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
New David Goldman article:
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Had no idea Cadence sold that much. Ugh.
1665700145137.png

Basically what we having saying in this thread since the beginning, the military do not use this advance nodes manly because reliability issues, they usually make their chips using mature nodes.
CETC equipment alone and/or SMEE dry scanners probably are good enough for mostly 95% of China military weapon and space chips needs with the more advanced rest been made by probably low volume immersion or EUV or Ion beam, soft Xray or Ebeam lithography.

1665698610028.png
"But dude what about muh AI chip, you need the 0.0000000005nm ASML TSMC ALIEN AREA 51 Machine technology for that"

The main driver of AI in the future will be advance packaging "an area which China is already very good at" not node shrinking as many companies are finding out, jamming more transistors in a single chip is not scalable as was before and will get very expensive to scale for AI applications, Is like the Human brain your neurons don't get smaller but your cranium grow bigger to pack more.

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The the China hawks in DC are probably better off banning EVG hybrid bonders (An Austrian company)
1665699730510.png
than trying to ban ASML machines.

A technology which by the way SMIC and U-Precision are developing.
1665699848124.png
 
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