Chinese semiconductor industry

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
That's exactly why a medical supplies export ban to America is China's most effective tool of retaliation.

We want America to have a big problem, if it sanctions TSMC and Huawei. That's the point.

I can't keep writing the same things to you over and over again just because you can't read. I'll quote myself from #166:

"You don't understand what big problem means. I mean a big problem for you, or 3M, in that analogy. If 3M refused to sell masks and hoarded them by the millions during a pandemic, then the company is pretty much done from there gong forward. It will be seen as evil, unreliable and nobody will want to do business with it again after the pandemic is over. Its rivals will eat up its share of the market. If the world sees China as a country that uses a pandemic to ban medical supplies to a rival country in order to cause deaths, I really don't know how much more direct I can get than that. There's not much I can think that would ruin your reputation worse than that. "

Hadoren · May 15, 2020

At this very moment Australia, Brazil, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and many many more countries refuse to sell masks and hoard them by the millions.

They are not seen as evil or unreliable.

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
At this very moment Australia, Brazil, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and many many more countries refuse to sell masks and hoard them by the millions.

They are not seen as evil or unreliable.

I can't keep writing the same things to you over and over again just because you can't read. I'll quote myself from #163:

"Everyone else can make these bans because they're not major manufacturers. China is the world's biggest manufacturer and everyone relies on China. If you and all your neighbors all keep your handkerchief shoelace masks to yourself, that's fine but if 3M says it's keeping all its masks to itself, it's going to be a big problem. "

Then you say, "but we're trying to cause a big problem for America!" Then I respond:

I can't keep writing the same things to you over and over again just because you can't read. I'll quote myself from #166:

"You don't understand what big problem means. I mean a big problem for you, or 3M, in that analogy. If 3M refused to sell masks and hoarded them by the millions during a pandemic, then the company is pretty much done from there gong forward. It will be seen as evil, unreliable and nobody will want to do business with it again after the pandemic is over. Its rivals will eat up its share of the market. If the world sees China as a country that uses a pandemic to ban medical supplies to a rival country in order to cause deaths, I really don't know how much more direct I can get than that. There's not much I can think that would ruin your reputation worse than that. "

Hadoren · May 15, 2020

My last word on this thread is this - the emotional panic over a medical supplies export ban to America, in retaliation for American sanctions on Huawei and TSMC, has made me more convinced than ever that this is an extremely effective, extremely powerful tool that China can utilize.

Chinese entity lists, games with Treasuries, putting more effort into developing technology - these are basically swinging your sword at the heavily armored plates of a dragon. The dragon is untouched. Swinging your sword at a dragon's armor is pointless.

To effectively retaliate for Huawei, you have to hit the dragon's weak point. You have to thrust your sword and pierce deep into that temporary wound. Attack its weak points.

America's weak point is PPE. China needs to seriously consider this.

manqiangrexue · May 15, 2020

Hadoren said:
My last word on this thread is this - the push-back I have gotten over a medical supplies export ban to America, in retaliation for American sanctions on Huawei and TSMC, has made me more convinced than ever that this is an extremely effective, extremely powerful tool that China can utilize.

Well, unfortunately for you, the push-back is from other Chinese members, not from American strategists, so if you believe that the more your team members tell you not to do something stupid the more it should be done, then... well I guess that's par for the course for someone who can't read and needs old quotes to be refed to him several times over.

Hadoren said:
Chinese entity lists, games with Treasuries, putting more effort into developing technology - these are basically swinging your sword at the heavily armored plates of a dragon. The dragon is untouched. Swinging your sword at a dragon's armor is pointless.

To effectively retaliate for Huawei, you have to hit the dragon's weak point. You have to thrust your sword and pierce deep into that temporary wound. Attack its weak points.

America's weak point is PPE. China needs to seriously consider this.

The problem is, you're confused at where the dragon's wound is. You're basically trying to hack off a tumor on his back, which does nothing except suck away at his nutrients.

The alternative strategy is focus all resources to grow and develop Chinese science and technology to overtake America's. The is basically researching harder metals and superior sharpening techniques to make a sword that can pierce that dragon armor, but you don't seem to like it so much because there's no immediate blood... tumor blood, that is... And don't be fooled; the armor isn't that hard! If it was, that dragon wouldn't be in panic mode right now.

localizer · May 15, 2020

manqiangrexue said:
Well, unfortunately for you, the push-back is from other Chinese members, not from American strategists, so if you believe that the more your team members tell you not to do something stupid the more it should be done, then... well I guess that's par for the course for someone who can't read and needs old quotes to be refed to him several times over.

The problem is, you're confused at where the dragon's wound is. You're basically trying to hack off a tumor on his back, which does nothing except suck away at his nutrients.

The alternative strategy is focus all resources to grow and develop Chinese science and technology to overtake America's. The is basically researching harder metals and superior sharpening techniques to make a sword that can pierce that dragon armor, but you don't seem to like it so much because there's no immediate blood... tumor blood, that is... And don't be fooled; the armor isn't that hard! If it was, that dragon wouldn't be in panic mode right now.

I'm honestly quite interested in what the leadership will come up with.

Will it be a masterclass in geopolitics?

Looks like Taiwan, despite being next to China, wants to decouple as well. Maybe they will get some too.

ZeEa5KPul · May 16, 2020

localizer said:
Will it be a masterclass in geopolitics?

When has the Xi administration not delivered?

localizer said:
Looks like Taiwan, despite being next to China, wants to decouple as well. Maybe they will get some too.

A very nice side benefit of this technological war of attrition between China and the US is that it will economically eviscerate Taiwan. Beyond TSMC, what does Taiwan have? Once China develops its technology to the bleeding edge and expands its semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan (and Korea, perhaps Japan as well although I can entertain the argument that it will be big enough to survive) will simply wither. Given its diminished value to the world and China's increased influence as a result of its more advanced technology it will face a more severe security environment as China would be both more capable and more willing to go the route of resuming the civil war.

You might find what I said about the renegade province and the other East Asian countries surprising, but consider what China is accomplishing given its stage of development. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are sprightly 3 cylinder engines, built pretty well, quick off the line and yet ecologically friendly. China is a monster of a quad-turboed V16 but with 12 of the cylinders busted. What terrifies everyone about Xi Jinping is that he's dead set on fixing those broken cylinders if it's the last thing he does. Once the repairs are finished, what hope do they have? What hope does anyone have against a fifth of humanity united under a technologically hyper-advanced and exquisitely governed superstate?

LawLeadsToPeace · May 16, 2020

ZeEa5KPul said:
My thinking on the issue of retaliation has changed almost 180°. I used to be all gung-ho about retaliation and taking revenge and all the rest of that crap. Now I don't feel that retaliation has any use beyond deterrence - just retaliate and threaten further action enough to deter America. Retaliation has no use beyond that; this isn't some Shakespearean tragedy like Tommy Cotton wants Chinese students to study. What China needs to do is achieve core technology independence as soon as possible and all efforts should be focused on that goal. The US is a burning building and China needs to reach the exit as expeditiously as it can. Sure, grab the fire extinguisher and douse any flames that are in your way, but don't stick around beyond that.

Agreed. I had the same view, but now I believe cutting off the PPE supply to the US is pointless.The US is already killing itself due to its incompetence, so why should China bother create more trouble for itself? Personally, I believe the Chinese should just focus on itself and nearby neighbors such as SK, Pakistan and Singapore and deal with the separatists and traitors in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Plus, whenever the US or any Western nations attempt to lie about China, China can just shut them up with facts and humiliate those echo those lies. China literally can now shed off its relations with the West and develop its domestic economy to become a self-reliant one. If any of the Western nations want to use Taiwan as their final attempt to screw with China or do something like that, China can just sanction them just like they did to Australia and let them fall into total destruction. Their lifelines literally are in the hands of China and China can just yank them whenever they try something funny.

adiru · May 16, 2020

AndrewS said:
Note that the Global Times article was published a few hours after the US made the announcement.
For this sort of announcement, it means the government source was already pre-authorised to speak to the Global Times about adding US companies to the unreliable entity list. Normally you need rounds of meetings with a lot of different stakeholders, before the Chinese government can agree a policy response.

Given a further Huawei escalation has been expected for months now, I fully expect that Huawei-US actions have already been gamed out, and appropriate responses drawn up.
We saw the same thing with the islands in the South China Seas, with immediate responses to US actions.

As you mention, there is a 120 day grace period. But it takes 90-120days for a chip to be made, so the impact will be almost immediate.

But in the current situation, it is literally impossible to replace China as a production base for semiconductors and every other product.
Nor is there any realistic replacement for Chinese demand and Chinese consumers.
And the gap between Chinese growth and US growth is going to be widen this year, due to COVID-19.

So I expect that there will be huge pressure from Apple, Cisco, Qualcomm, Boeing, Micron, Intel, AMD etc in the coming weeks, and that the Trump Administration will quietly walk this back.

Remember that a few months ago, the government officials most in favour of restrictions on selling US products to China and Huawei were fired by Trump.
So I suspect more US officials will be fired in the aftermath.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Sino/comments/gknahr

adiru · May 16, 2020

ZeEa5KPul said:
When has the Xi administration not delivered?

A very nice side benefit of this technological war of attrition between China and the US is that it will economically eviscerate Taiwan. Beyond TSMC, what does Taiwan have? Once China develops its technology to the bleeding edge and expands its semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan (and Korea, perhaps Japan as well although I can entertain the argument that it will be big enough to survive) will simply wither. Given its diminished value to the world and China's increased influence as a result of its more advanced technology it will face a more severe security environment as China would be both more capable and more willing to go the route of resuming the civil war.

You might find what I said about the renegade province and the other East Asian countries surprising, but consider what China is accomplishing given its stage of development. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are sprightly 3 cylinder engines, built pretty well, quick off the line and yet ecologically friendly. China is a monster of a quad-turboed V16 but with 12 of the cylinders busted. What terrifies everyone about Xi Jinping is that he's dead set on fixing those broken cylinders if it's the last thing he does. Once the repairs are finished, what hope do they have? What hope does anyone have against a fifth of humanity united under a technologically hyper-advanced and exquisitely governed superstate?

Tawian has Nvidia

Chinese semiconductor industry

manqiangrexue

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Hadoren

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manqiangrexue

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Hadoren

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manqiangrexue

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localizer

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ZeEa5KPul

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LawLeadsToPeace

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adiru

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adiru

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